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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 1–1 · NEW YORK RED BULLS 42% · Value: BTTS Yes 62%
CONF 48 FULL ANALYSIS →
Major League Soccer · REGULAR SEASON - 15 · SAT, 16 MAY · 23:30 LOCAL
NEW YORK RED BULLS
8TH · 25 PTS · LAST 5:
W L L W W
FT
1 – 1
FULL TIME HT · 1-0
NEW YORK CITY FC
D W W L W
· 5TH · 26 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 44' Jorge Ruvalcaba
GOALS
⚽ 52' Andrés Perea
Matthew Freese
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Matthew Freese
New York City FC · 92 mins
· 21% pass acc
RATING
8.0
PREDICTIONS
▶ MATCH HIGHLIGHTS

Goals, key moments & recap 1 CLIP

powered by Highlightly
Major League Soccer: New York Red Bulls vs New York City FC
Open in Youtube ↗
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

2.33
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
1.33
44%
BALL POSSESSION %
56%
12
TOTAL SHOTS
11
5
SHOTS ON TARGET
4
82%
PASS ACCURACY %
83%
9
CORNERS
2
KEY EVENTS 16 events
  1. 24'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty
    NEW
  2. 24'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Raul Gustavo
    NEW
  3. 39'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Maxi Moralez · assist Andrés Perea
    NEW
  4. 44'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Jorge Ruvalcaba · assist Cade Cowell
    NEW
  5. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Hannes Wolf · assist Malachi Jones
    NEW
  6. 49'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Keaton Parks
    NEW
  7. 52'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Andrés Perea · assist Nicolás Fernández
    NEW
  8. 59'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Keaton Parks · assist Jonathan Shore
    NEW
  9. 68'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Jorge Ruvalcaba
    NEW
  10. 69'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Emil Forsberg · assist Gustav Berggren
    NEW
  11. 69'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Matthew Dos Santos · assist Omar Valencia
    NEW
  12. 69'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Justin Che · assist Tim Parker
    NEW
  13. 77'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Nico Cavallo
    NEW
  14. 82'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Dylan Nealis
    NEW
  15. 85'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Jorge Ruvalcaba · assist Rafael Mosquera
    NEW
  16. 86'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Tim Parker
    NEW
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
NEW YORK RED BULLS AVG 7.2
NEW YORK CITY FC AVG 7.5
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
2.3
xG
1.3
12.0
TOTAL SHOTS
11.0
5.0
ON TARGET
4.0
3.0
OFF TARGET
3.0
4.0
BLOCKED
4.0
POSSESSION
44.0%
POSSESSION %
56.0%
341.0
PASSES
457.0
82.0%
PASS ACCURACY
83.0%
SET PIECES
9.0
CORNERS
2.0
0.0
OFFSIDES
3.0
DISCIPLINE
16.0
FOULS
10.0
4.0
YELLOW CARDS
3.0
2.0
GK SAVES
4.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
NEW YORK RED BULLS 4 shots
Jorge Ruvalcaba
1/1
Ronald Donkor
1/1
Cade Cowell
1/1
Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty
0/1
NEW YORK CITY FC 1 shots
Andrés Perea
1/1
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 2.33 – 1.33
1.9 1.4 0.9 0.5 2.3 0.0 HT 44' 52' H 2.33 A 1.33 KO 30' 60' FT

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 56%
44% A
9
EVENTS LOGGED
7
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 4-3-3 vs 4-2-3-1
4-3-3
4-2-3-1
34
ETHAN HOR
56
MATTHEW D
12
DYLAN NEA
 7.2
2
JUSTIN CH
 6.9
3
JAHKEELE
10
EMIL FORS
15
ADRI MEHM
 7.3
48
RONALD DO
 7.7
11
JORGE RUV
16
JULIAN HA
 6.9
7
CADE COWE
 8.0
49
MATTHEW F
2
NICO CAVA
 7.5
34
RAUL GUST
 7.7
13
THIAGO MA
24
TAYVON GR
 7.2
5
K. TREWIN
55
KEATON PA
17
HANNES WO
10
MAXI MORA
26
AGUSTIN O
7
NICOLáS F
SUBSTITUTES · NEW YORK RED BULLS
79
Rafael Mosqu...
F
39
Nehuen Bened...
M
37
Mohammed Sof...
F
4
Gustav Bergg...
M
5
Omar Valenci...
D
14
Julián Bazán
D
26
Tim Parker
D
77
John McCarth...
G
33
Roald Mitche...
F
SUBSTITUTES · NEW YORK CITY FC
88
Malachi Jone...
F
15
Kevin Pierre
M
29
Máximo Carri...
M
32
Jonathan Sho...
M
87
Arnau Farno...
F
19
Strahinja Ta...
D
30
Tomás Romero
G
8
Andrés Perea
M
99
Seymour Garf...
F
COACH: Pascal Jansen
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
NEW · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

NEW · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
V. Rivas
—
NEW MANAGER
—
unannounced
NEW MANAGER
Pascal Jansen
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
3
NEW WINS
1
DRAWS
6
NEW WINS
30%
10%
60%
9 – 17
TOTAL GOALS · 10 MEETINGS
2.60
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 5 / 10
27 Sep 2025
New York Red Bulls
2 – 3
New York City FC
L
17 May 2025
New York City FC
2 – 0
New York Red Bulls
L
23 Nov 2024
New York City FC
0 – 2
New York Red Bulls
W
28 Sep 2024
New York Red Bulls
1 – 5
New York City FC
L
18 May 2024
New York City FC
2 – 1
New York Red Bulls
L
NEW YORK RED BULLS LAST 5 OVERALL
W L L W W
NEW YORK CITY FC LAST 5 OVERALL
D W W L W
MATCH IMPACT Final 1–1 · result locked
NEW YORK RED BULLS #8
Lost · already at 25 pts
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)
NEW YORK CITY FC #5
Lost · already at 26 pts
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 Vancouver Whitecaps 17 10 4 3 +21 34
D D L W L
1 Nashville SC 18 12 4 2 +21 40
D L W W W
2 Los Angeles FC 19 10 4 5 +16 34
D W W W W
2 Inter Miami 18 11 5 2 +13 38
D W W W W
3 San Jose Earthquakes 18 10 3 5 +13 33
L D L W L
3 New England Revolution 17 9 3 5 +7 30
D W D L W
4 Chicago Fire 17 9 2 6 +9 29
W L L W W
4 Houston Dynamo 17 9 2 6 +1 29
W W D D W
5 Real Salt Lake 17 8 3 6 +4 27
D L L D W
5 New York City FC 18 7 5 6 +7 26
D W W L D
6 FC Dallas 18 7 6 5 +7 27
D L D W W
6 FC Cincinnati 18 7 5 6 +1 26
W L W W D
7 St. Louis City 18 7 5 6 0 26
D W W W W
7 Charlotte 18 7 4 7 +2 25
L W D W W
8 New York Red Bulls 18 7 4 7 -10 25
W L L W D
8 Portland Timbers 18 7 3 8 0 24
W W D W L
9 Seattle Sounders 17 7 3 7 -2 24
L L L L L
9 DC United 18 5 8 5 -3 23
D W D D D
10 Minnesota United FC 18 6 6 6 -5 24
D D L D L
10 Orlando City SC 18 6 2 10 -17 20
L W W L D
11 Colorado Rapids 18 7 1 10 +2 22
W L W L L
11 Columbus Crew 18 5 5 8 -2 20
D W L W D
12 Toronto FC 18 3 8 7 -8 17
D L D D L
12 Los Angeles Galaxy 19 5 7 7 -5 22
D D L L D
13 San Diego 18 5 6 7 +3 21
D W L L D
13 Philadelphia Union 18 4 4 10 -8 16
W W W L D
14 Austin 18 4 5 9 -14 17
L L W L L
14 CF Montreal 18 4 4 10 -11 16
D L L D D
15 Sporting Kansas City 18 4 2 12 -28 14
L L W L L
15 Atlanta United FC 18 3 3 12 -14 12
L L D L L
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 86'
    Card · Yellow Card · Tim Parker
  • 85'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Jorge Ruvalcaba
  • 82'
    Card · Yellow Card · Dylan Nealis
  • 77'
    Card · Yellow Card · Nico Cavallo
  • 69'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Justin Che
  • 69'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Matthew Dos Santos
  • 69'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Emil Forsberg
  • 68'
    Card · Yellow Card · Jorge Ruvalcaba
  • 59'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Keaton Parks
  • 52'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Andrés Perea
  • 49'
    Card · Yellow Card · Keaton Parks
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Hannes Wolf
  • HALF TIME · 1 – 0
  • 44'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Jorge Ruvalcaba
  • 39'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Maxi Moralez
  • 24'
    Card · Yellow Card · Raul Gustavo
  • 24'
    Card · Yellow Card · Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty
11 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 11 BOOKMAKERS
NEW YORK RED BUL WIN
2.60
38.5% implied
↑ best 2.70
DRAW
3.65
27.4% implied
↑ best 3.80
NEW YORK CITY FC WIN
2.46
40.7% implied
↑ best 2.54

Market favors New York City FC. AI projects NEW YORK RED BULLS 42% · value bet BTTS Yes.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS NEW YORK RED BULLS 42% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 2.56 3.75 2.42 +2.9%
Bet365 2.62 3.70 2.45 +3.8%
Betano 2.65 3.70 2.50 +4.3%
Betfair 2.60 3.60 2.50 +3.5%
BetVictor 2.60 3.70 2.40 +3.5%
Dafabet 2.70 3.80 2.46 +5.0%
Marathonbet 2.60 3.58 2.45 +3.5%
Pinnacle 2.70 3.72 2.54 +5.0%
SBO 2.54 3.53 2.42 +2.6%
Unibet 2.55 3.65 2.50 +2.8%
William Hill 2.50 3.40 2.45 +2.0%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.15 U 5.12
2.5 O 1.54 U 2.41
3.5 O 2.34 U 1.58
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.45 8 bks
NO
2.58 8 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 1.62
Away -0.5 1.49
Away -0.75 1.35
Away -1 1.22
Away -1.25 1.19
Away -1.5 1.15
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.