GOALSENSE
SIGN IN
AI PREDICTION Projects FT 3–3 · DRAW 38% · Value: Over 2.5 92%
CONF 62 FULL ANALYSIS →
Major League Soccer · REGULAR SEASON - 14 · WED, 13 MAY · 23:30 LOCAL
ORLANDO CITY SC
12TH · 13 PTS · LAST 5:
L W L W L
FT
4 – 3
FULL TIME HT · 2-0
PHILADELPHIA UNION
L D L D D
· 15TH · 6 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 19' Martín Ojeda (P) ⚽ 27' Griffin Dorsey ⚽ 72' Duncan McGuire ⚽ 90' Martín Ojeda
GOALS
⚽ 54' Milan Iloski ⚽ 75' Cavan Sullivan ⚽ 79' Ben Bender
Martín Ojeda
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Martín Ojeda
Orlando City SC · 96 mins
⚽ 2 goals · 18% pass acc · 2 shots on
RATING
8.3
PREDICTIONS
▶ MATCH HIGHLIGHTS

Goals, key moments & recap 1 CLIP

powered by Highlightly
Major League Soccer: Orlando City vs Philadelphia Union
Open in Youtube ↗
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

2.87
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
1.62
55%
BALL POSSESSION %
45%
12
TOTAL SHOTS
26
6
SHOTS ON TARGET
7
85%
PASS ACCURACY %
84%
1
CORNERS
10
KEY EVENTS 20 events
  1. 17'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Andrew Rick
    PHI
  2. 19'
    Goal · Penalty
    Martín Ojeda
    ORL
  3. 27'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Griffin Dorsey
    ORL
  4. 43'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Jovan Lukić · assist Cavan Sullivan
    PHI
  5. 51'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Tiago Souza
    ORL
  6. 54'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Milan Iloski · assist Nathan Harriel
    PHI
  7. 58'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Danley Jean Jacques
    PHI
  8. 60'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Jeremy Rafanello
    PHI
  9. 63'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Eduard Atuesta · assist Luis Otávio
    ORL
  10. 64'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Tiago Souza · assist Tyrese Spicer
    ORL
  11. 64'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    David Brekalo · assist A. Gomez
    ORL
  12. 65'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Indiana Vassilev · assist Agustin Anello
    PHI
  13. 70'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Justin Ellis · assist Duncan McGuire
    ORL
  14. 72'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Duncan McGuire · assist Tyrese Spicer
    ORL
  15. 75'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Cavan Sullivan · assist Ben Bender
    PHI
  16. 75'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Milan Iloski · assist Ezekiel Alladoh
    PHI
  17. 75'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Bruno Damiani · assist Stas Kornzeniowski
    PHI
  18. 79'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Ben Bender · assist Stas Kornzeniowski
    PHI
  19. 81'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Griffin Dorsey · assist Marco Pašalić
    ORL
  20. 90'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Martín Ojeda · assist A. Gomez
    ORL
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
ORLANDO CITY SC AVG 7.7
PHILADELPHIA UNION AVG 7.3
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
2.9
xG
1.6
12.0
TOTAL SHOTS
26.0
6.0
ON TARGET
7.0
5.0
OFF TARGET
13.0
1.0
BLOCKED
6.0
POSSESSION
55.0%
POSSESSION %
45.0%
490.0
PASSES
385.0
85.0%
PASS ACCURACY
84.0%
SET PIECES
1.0
CORNERS
10.0
0.0
OFFSIDES
1.0
DISCIPLINE
8.0
FOULS
11.0
1.0
YELLOW CARDS
3.0
4.0
GK SAVES
2.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
ORLANDO CITY SC 9 shots
Martín Ojeda
2/5
Griffin Dorsey
1/2
Iván Angulo
1/1
Justin Ellis
0/1
PHILADELPHIA UNION 12 shots
Milan Iloski
2/5
Cavan Sullivan
1/3
Nathan Harriel
0/2
Ben Bender
1/1
Jeremy Rafanello
1/1
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 2.87 – 1.62
2.3 1.7 1.1 0.6 2.9 0.0 HT 19' 27' 72' 90' 54' 75' 79' H 2.87 A 1.62 KO 30' 60' FT

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 50%
50% A
10
EVENTS LOGGED
10
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 3-4-3 vs 4-4-2
3-4-3
4-4-2
71
MAXIME CR
4
DAVID BRE
6
ROBIN JAN
57
IAGO SILV
 7.7
77
IVáN ANGU
20
EDUARD AT
 7.3
8
BRAIAN OJ
 7.9
24
GRIFFIN D
11
TIAGO SOU
 8.3
10
MARTíN OJ
 7.5
22
JUSTIN EL
76
ANDREW RI
 7.2
16
BEN BENDE
29
OLWETHU M
2
GEINER MA
 7.0
26
NATHAN HA
19
INDIANA V
 6.9
14
JEREMY RA
4
JOVAN LUK
21
DANLEY JE
9
BRUNO DAM
 7.6
10
MILAN ILO
SUBSTITUTES · ORLANDO CITY SC
19
Zakaria Taif...
M
29
Tahir Reid-B...
D
12
Javier Otero
G
87
Marco Pašali...
F
13
Duncan McGui...
F
14
Tyrese Spice...
F
3
Adrián Marín
D
5
Luis Otávio
M
16
Wilder Carta...
M
COACH: Oscar Pareja
SUBSTITUTES · PHILADELPHIA UNION
20
Philippe Ndi...
D
66
Finn Sundstr...
D
15
Olivier Mbai...
D
31
George Marks
G
37
Stas Kornzen...
F
23
Ezekiel Alla...
F
28
Agustin Anel...
F
6
Cavan Sulliv...
M
11
Alejandro Be...
M
COACH: Bradley Carnell
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
ORL · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

PHI · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
Sergiy Boyko, Ukraine
—
ORL MANAGER
Oscar Pareja
head coach
PHI MANAGER
Bradley Carnell
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
4
ORL WINS
2
DRAWS
4
PHI WINS
40%
20%
40%
15 – 20
TOTAL GOALS · 10 MEETINGS
3.50
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 5 / 10
05 Apr 2025
Philadelphia Union
0 – 0
Orlando City SC
D
23 Feb 2025
Orlando City SC
2 – 4
Philadelphia Union
L
02 Oct 2024
Orlando City SC
2 – 1
Philadelphia Union
W
11 May 2024
Philadelphia Union
2 – 3
Orlando City SC
W
21 Jun 2023
Orlando City SC
2 – 2
Philadelphia Union
D
ORLANDO CITY SC LAST 5 OVERALL
L W L W L
PHILADELPHIA UNION LAST 5 OVERALL
L D L D D
MATCH IMPACT Final 4–3 · result locked
ORLANDO CITY SC #12
Won · already at 13 pts
PHILADELPHIA UNION #15
Lost · already at 6 pts
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 Vancouver Whitecaps 12 9 2 1 +21 29
W D D W W
1 Nashville SC 12 8 3 1 +18 27
W D D W W
2 San Jose Earthquakes 13 9 2 2 +18 29
L D D W W
2 Inter Miami 13 7 4 2 +7 25
W W L D W
3 Seattle Sounders 11 7 3 1 +9 24
W D D W W
3 New England Revolution 12 7 1 4 +4 22
L W W D W
4 Chicago Fire 12 6 2 4 +8 20
W L L W D
4 Real Salt Lake 12 7 1 4 +6 22
W L W L L
5 Los Angeles FC 13 6 3 4 +7 21
L L D W D
5 New York City FC 13 5 3 5 +5 18
W W L L D
6 Minnesota United FC 13 6 3 4 -3 21
L D W L W
6 New York Red Bulls 13 5 3 5 -8 18
W W L L D
7 FC Dallas 13 5 4 4 +6 19
L W W L L
7 DC United 13 4 4 5 -4 16
L D W W D
8 FC Cincinnati 13 4 4 5 -5 16
L D W W D
8 Houston Dynamo 12 6 0 6 -5 18
L W W L W
9 Colorado Rapids 13 5 1 7 +3 16
W L L L D
9 Charlotte 13 4 3 6 -2 15
L D L L L
10 San Diego 13 4 4 5 +5 16
W D D L L
10 Toronto FC 12 3 5 4 -4 14
L D L D D
11 Los Angeles Galaxy 13 4 4 5 -2 16
L W D W L
11 CF Montreal 12 4 1 7 -7 13
D W L W W
12 Orlando City SC 13 4 1 8 -17 13
W L W L W
12 Portland Timbers 12 4 2 6 -2 14
D W L W L
13 Austin 13 3 5 5 -8 14
L D W W L
13 Columbus Crew 13 3 3 7 -4 12
L L L W W
14 St. Louis City 12 3 3 6 -7 12
W W L L L
14 Atlanta United FC 12 3 1 8 -7 10
L W W L L
15 Sporting Kansas City 12 2 2 8 -22 8
W L D L L
15 Philadelphia Union 13 1 3 9 -10 6
L L D L D
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 90'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Martín Ojeda
  • 81'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Griffin Dorsey
  • 79'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Ben Bender
  • 75'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Bruno Damiani
  • 75'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Milan Iloski
  • 75'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Cavan Sullivan
  • 72'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Duncan McGuire
  • 70'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Justin Ellis
  • 65'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Indiana Vassilev
  • 64'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · David Brekalo
  • 64'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Tiago Souza
  • 63'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Eduard Atuesta
  • 60'
    Card · Yellow Card · Jeremy Rafanello
  • 58'
    Card · Yellow Card · Danley Jean Jacques
  • 54'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Milan Iloski
  • 51'
    Card · Yellow Card · Tiago Souza
  • HALF TIME · 2 – 0
  • 43'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Jovan Lukić
  • 27'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Griffin Dorsey
  • 19'
    Goal · Penalty · Martín Ojeda
  • 17'
    Card · Yellow Card · Andrew Rick
12 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 12 BOOKMAKERS
ORLANDO CITY SC WIN
2.72
36.8% implied
↑ best 3.00
DRAW
3.59
27.9% implied
↑ best 3.75
PHILADELPHIA UNI WIN
2.38
42% implied
↑ best 2.50

Market favors Philadelphia Union. AI projects DRAW 38% · value bet Over 2.5.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS DRAW 38% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 2.64 3.65 2.40 +10.6%
888Sport 3.00 3.50 2.10 +9.4%
Bet365 2.70 3.70 2.45 +11.0%
Betano 2.72 3.55 2.47 +9.8%
Betfair 2.63 3.75 2.40 +11.3%
BetVictor 2.63 3.60 2.45 +10.2%
Dafabet 2.80 3.70 2.43 +11.0%
Marathonbet 2.69 3.58 2.38 +10.1%
Pinnacle 2.75 3.71 2.50 +11.0%
SBO 2.64 3.43 2.38 +8.8%
Unibet 2.85 3.55 2.32 +9.8%
William Hill 2.62 3.40 2.30 +8.6%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.19 U 4.40
2.5 O 1.65 U 2.20
3.5 O 2.61 U 1.46
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.53 9 bks
NO
2.36 9 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 1.59
Away -0.5 1.46
Away -0.75 1.32
Away -1 1.19
Away -1.25 1.15
Away -1.5 1.13
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.