GOALSENSE
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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 3–3 · DRAW 38% · Value: Over 2.5 92%
CONF 62 FULL ANALYSIS →
Major League Soccer · REGULAR SEASON - 14 · WED, 13 MAY · 23:30 LOCAL
ORLANDO CITY SC
9TH · 24 PTS · LAST 5:
W L D L W
FT
4 – 3
FULL TIME HT · 2-0
PHILADELPHIA UNION
D D W W W
· 12TH · 21 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 19' M. Ojeda (P) ⚽ 27' G. Dorsey ⚽ 72' D. McGuire ⚽ 90' M. Ojeda
GOALS
⚽ 54' M. Iloski ⚽ 75' Cavan Sullivan ⚽ 79' B. Bender
M. Ojeda
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
M. Ojeda
Orlando City SC · 96 mins
⚽ 2 goals · 18% pass acc · 2 shots on
RATING
8.3
PREDICTIONS
▶ MATCH HIGHLIGHTS

Goals, key moments & recap 1 CLIP

powered by Highlightly
Major League Soccer: Orlando City vs Philadelphia Union
Open in Youtube ↗
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

2.87
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
1.62
55%
BALL POSSESSION %
45%
12
TOTAL SHOTS
26
6
SHOTS ON TARGET
7
85%
PASS ACCURACY %
84%
1
CORNERS
10
KEY EVENTS 20 events
  1. 17'
    Card · Yellow Card
    A. Rick
    PHI
  2. 19'
    Goal · Penalty
    M. Ojeda
    ORL
  3. 27'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    G. Dorsey
    ORL
  4. 43'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    J. Lukić · assist Cavan Sullivan
    PHI
  5. 51'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Tiago
    ORL
  6. 54'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    M. Iloski · assist N. Harriel
    PHI
  7. 58'
    Card · Yellow Card
    D. Jean-Jacques
    PHI
  8. 60'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Jeremy Rafanello
    PHI
  9. 63'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    E. Atuesta · assist Luis Otávio Costa de Aquino
    ORL
  10. 64'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Tiago · assist T. Spicer
    ORL
  11. 64'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    David Brekalo · assist A. Gomez
    ORL
  12. 65'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    I. Vassilev · assist A. Anello
    PHI
  13. 70'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Justin Ellis · assist D. McGuire
    ORL
  14. 72'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    D. McGuire · assist T. Spicer
    ORL
  15. 75'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Cavan Sullivan · assist B. Bender
    PHI
  16. 75'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    M. Iloski · assist E. Alladoh
    PHI
  17. 75'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    B. Damiani · assist Stas Kornzeniowski
    PHI
  18. 79'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    B. Bender · assist Stas Kornzeniowski
    PHI
  19. 81'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    G. Dorsey · assist Marco Pasalic
    ORL
  20. 90'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    M. Ojeda · assist A. Gomez
    ORL
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
ORLANDO CITY SC AVG 7.7
PHILADELPHIA UNION AVG 7.3
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
2.9
xG
1.6
12.0
TOTAL SHOTS
26.0
6.0
ON TARGET
7.0
5.0
OFF TARGET
13.0
1.0
BLOCKED
6.0
POSSESSION
55.0%
POSSESSION %
45.0%
490.0
PASSES
385.0
85.0%
PASS ACCURACY
84.0%
SET PIECES
1.0
CORNERS
10.0
0.0
OFFSIDES
1.0
DISCIPLINE
8.0
FOULS
11.0
1.0
YELLOW CARDS
3.0
4.0
GK SAVES
2.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
ORLANDO CITY SC 9 shots
M. Ojeda
2/5
G. Dorsey
1/2
I. Angulo
1/1
Justin Ellis
0/1
PHILADELPHIA UNION 12 shots
M. Iloski
2/5
Cavan Sullivan
1/3
N. Harriel
0/2
B. Bender
1/1
Jeremy Rafanello
1/1
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 2.87 – 1.62
2.3 1.7 1.1 0.6 2.9 0.0 HT 19' 27' 72' 90' 54' 75' 79' H 2.87 A 1.62 KO 30' 60' FT

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 50%
50% A
10
EVENTS LOGGED
10
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 3-4-3 vs 4-4-2
3-4-3
4-4-2
71
M. CRéPEA
4
DAVID BRE
6
R. JANSSO
57
IAGO
 7.7
77
I. ANGULO
20
E. ATUEST
 7.3
8
BRAIAN OJ
 7.9
24
G. DORSEY
11
TIAGO
 8.3
10
M. OJEDA
 7.5
22
JUSTIN EL
76
A. RICK
 7.2
16
B. BENDER
29
OLWETHU M
2
GEINER MA
 7.0
26
N. HARRIE
19
I. VASSIL
 6.9
14
JEREMY RA
4
J. LUKIć
21
D. JEAN-J
9
B. DAMIAN
 7.6
10
M. ILOSKI
SUBSTITUTES · ORLANDO CITY SC
19
Z. Taifi
M
29
Tahir Reid-B...
D
12
Javier Otero
G
87
Marco Pasali...
F
13
D. McGuire
F
14
T. Spicer
F
3
Adrián Marín
D
5
Luis Otávio...
M
16
W. Cartagena
M
COACH: Oscar Pareja
SUBSTITUTES · PHILADELPHIA UNION
20
Philippe Ndi...
D
66
Finn Sundstr...
D
15
Olivier Mbai...
D
31
George Marks
G
37
Stas Kornzen...
F
23
E. Alladoh
F
28
A. Anello
F
6
Cavan Sulli...
M
11
A. Bedoya
M
COACH: Bradley Carnell
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
ORL · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

PHI · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
S. Boiko
—
ORL MANAGER
Oscar Pareja
head coach
PHI MANAGER
Bradley Carnell
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
4
ORL WINS
2
DRAWS
4
PHI WINS
40%
20%
40%
15 – 20
TOTAL GOALS · 10 MEETINGS
3.50
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 5 / 10
05 Apr 2025
Philadelphia Union
0 – 0
Orlando City SC
D
23 Feb 2025
Orlando City SC
2 – 4
Philadelphia Union
L
02 Oct 2024
Orlando City SC
2 – 1
Philadelphia Union
W
11 May 2024
Philadelphia Union
2 – 3
Orlando City SC
W
21 Jun 2023
Orlando City SC
2 – 2
Philadelphia Union
D
ORLANDO CITY SC LAST 5 OVERALL
W L D L W
PHILADELPHIA UNION LAST 5 OVERALL
D D W W W
MATCH IMPACT Final 4–3 · result locked
ORLANDO CITY SC #9
Won · already at 24 pts
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)
PHILADELPHIA UNION #12
Lost · already at 21 pts
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 Vancouver Whitecaps 20 12 4 4 +27 40
W L W D D
1 Nashville SC 21 15 4 2 +26 49
W W W D L
2 Houston Dynamo 21 12 2 7 +4 38
L W W W W
2 Inter Miami 21 11 6 4 +9 39
L D L D W
3 Los Angeles FC 22 10 5 7 +14 35
D L L D W
3 Chicago Fire 20 11 3 6 +11 36
D W W W L
4 New England Revolution 21 10 4 7 +7 34
D W L L D
4 San Jose Earthquakes 21 10 3 8 +6 33
L L L L D
5 FC Dallas 21 9 6 6 +4 33
L W W D L
5 Charlotte 21 9 5 7 +6 32
W D W L W
6 St. Louis City 21 9 6 6 +3 33
W D W D W
6 FC Cincinnati 21 8 7 6 +2 31
D W D W L
7 Colorado Rapids 21 9 1 11 +2 28
L W W W L
7 New York City FC 21 7 6 8 +5 27
D L L D W
8 New York Red Bulls 21 7 5 9 -12 26
D L L W L
8 Real Salt Lake 20 8 4 8 +2 28
L L D D L
9 Portland Timbers 21 8 4 9 +1 28
D W L W W
9 Orlando City SC 21 7 3 11 -17 24
W L D L W
10 Minnesota United FC 21 7 7 7 -2 28
W L D D D
10 Toronto FC 21 5 9 7 -6 24
W D W D L
11 San Diego 21 7 6 8 +5 27
W L W D W
11 DC United 21 5 9 7 -8 24
L L D D W
12 Philadelphia Union 21 5 6 10 -7 21
D D W W W
12 Los Angeles Galaxy 22 6 8 8 -5 26
D W L D D
13 Seattle Sounders 20 7 4 9 -5 25
D L L L L
13 CF Montreal 21 5 6 10 -10 21
D W D D L
14 Austin 21 5 6 10 -14 21
D W L L L
14 Columbus Crew 21 5 5 11 -6 20
L L L D W
15 Sporting Kansas City 20 4 3 13 -30 15
D L L L W
15 Atlanta United FC 20 5 3 12 -12 18
W W L L D
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 90'
    Goal · Normal Goal · M. Ojeda
  • 81'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · G. Dorsey
  • 79'
    Goal · Normal Goal · B. Bender
  • 75'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · B. Damiani
  • 75'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · M. Iloski
  • 75'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Cavan Sullivan
  • 72'
    Goal · Normal Goal · D. McGuire
  • 70'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Justin Ellis
  • 65'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · I. Vassilev
  • 64'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · David Brekalo
  • 64'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Tiago
  • 63'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · E. Atuesta
  • 60'
    Card · Yellow Card · Jeremy Rafanello
  • 58'
    Card · Yellow Card · D. Jean-Jacques
  • 54'
    Goal · Normal Goal · M. Iloski
  • 51'
    Card · Yellow Card · Tiago
  • HALF TIME · 2 – 0
  • 43'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · J. Lukić
  • 27'
    Goal · Normal Goal · G. Dorsey
  • 19'
    Goal · Penalty · M. Ojeda
  • 17'
    Card · Yellow Card · A. Rick
12 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 12 BOOKMAKERS
ORLANDO CITY SC WIN
2.72
36.8% implied
↑ best 3.00
DRAW
3.59
27.9% implied
↑ best 3.75
PHILADELPHIA UNI WIN
2.38
42% implied
↑ best 2.50

Market favors Philadelphia Union. AI projects DRAW 38% · value bet Over 2.5.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS DRAW 38% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 2.64 3.65 2.40 +10.6%
888Sport 3.00 3.50 2.10 +9.4%
Bet365 2.70 3.70 2.45 +11.0%
Betano 2.72 3.55 2.47 +9.8%
Betfair 2.63 3.75 2.40 +11.3%
BetVictor 2.63 3.60 2.45 +10.2%
Dafabet 2.80 3.70 2.43 +11.0%
Marathonbet 2.69 3.58 2.38 +10.1%
Pinnacle 2.75 3.71 2.50 +11.0%
SBO 2.64 3.43 2.38 +8.8%
Unibet 2.85 3.55 2.32 +9.8%
William Hill 2.62 3.40 2.30 +8.6%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.19 U 4.40
2.5 O 1.65 U 2.20
3.5 O 2.61 U 1.46
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.53 9 bks
NO
2.36 9 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 1.59
Away -0.5 1.46
Away -0.75 1.32
Away -1 1.19
Away -1.25 1.15
Away -1.5 1.13
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.