GOALSENSE
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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 1–2 · BENFICA 68% · Value: Over 2.5 64%
CONF 68 FULL ANALYSIS →
Primeira Liga · REGULAR SEASON - 34 · SAT, 16 MAY · 19:30 LOCAL
ESTORIL
10TH · 39 PTS · LAST 5:
D D L L L
FT
1 – 3
FULL TIME HT · 0-3
BENFICA
D D W W W
· 3RD · 80 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 90+1' Peixinho
GOALS
⚽ 7' Richard Ríos ⚽ 15' Alexander Bah ⚽ 16' Rafa Silva
Richard Ríos
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Richard Ríos
Benfica · 85 mins
⚽ 1 goal · 32% pass acc · 2 shots on
RATING
8.0
PREDICTIONS
▶ MATCH HIGHLIGHTS

Goals, key moments & recap 5 CLIPS

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Primeira Liga: Estoril vs Benfica
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Primeira Liga: Estoril vs Benfica
Primeira Liga: Estoril vs Benfica
Primeira Liga: Estoril vs Benfica
Primeira Liga: Estoril vs Benfica
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

1.42
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
3.93
47%
BALL POSSESSION %
53%
14
TOTAL SHOTS
18
5
SHOTS ON TARGET
8
83%
PASS ACCURACY %
85%
2
CORNERS
9
KEY EVENTS 19 events
  1. 7'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Richard Ríos
    BEN
  2. 15'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Alexander Bah · assist Tomás Araújo
    BEN
  3. 16'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Rafa Silva · assist Gianluca Prestianni
    BEN
  4. 22'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Gonçalo Costa
    EST
  5. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Ferro · assist Kévin Boma
    EST
  6. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Gonçalo Costa · assist Pedro Amaral
    EST
  7. 47'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Alexander Bah
    BEN
  8. 52'
    Card · Yellow Card
    André Lacximicant
    EST
  9. 58'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Pizzi · assist Rafik Guitane
    EST
  10. 66'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Rafik Guitane
    EST
  11. 68'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Gianluca Prestianni
    BEN
  12. 68'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Alexander Bah · assist Amar Dedić
    BEN
  13. 68'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Rafa Silva · assist Leandro Barreiro
    BEN
  14. 68'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Gianluca Prestianni · assist Dodi Lukebakio
    BEN
  15. 68'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    André Lacximicant · assist Peixinho
    EST
  16. 78'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Xeka · assist Nodar Lominadze
    EST
  17. 80'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Fredrik Aursnes · assist Manu Silva
    BEN
  18. 84'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Andreas Schjelderup · assist Bruma
    BEN
  19. 90'+1
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Peixinho · assist Kévin Boma
    EST
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
ESTORIL AVG 6.9
BENFICA AVG 7.4
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
1.4
xG
3.9
14.0
TOTAL SHOTS
18.0
5.0
ON TARGET
8.0
8.0
OFF TARGET
6.0
1.0
BLOCKED
4.0
POSSESSION
47.0%
POSSESSION %
53.0%
413.0
PASSES
450.0
83.0%
PASS ACCURACY
85.0%
SET PIECES
2.0
CORNERS
9.0
1.0
OFFSIDES
2.0
DISCIPLINE
9.0
FOULS
12.0
3.0
YELLOW CARDS
2.0
4.0
GK SAVES
5.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
ESTORIL 2 shots
Pedro Amaral
1/1
Xeka
0/1
BENFICA 5 shots
Richard Ríos
2/3
Alexander Bah
1/2
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 1.42 – 3.93
3.1 2.4 1.6 0.8 3.9 0.0 HT 90' 7' 15' 16' H 1.42 A 3.93 KO 30' 60' FT

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 47%
53% A
9
EVENTS LOGGED
10
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 4-3-1-2 vs 4-2-3-1
4-3-1-2
4-2-3-1
7.2
1
JOEL ROBL
20
GONçALO C
4
FERRO
25
FELIX BAC
2
RICARD Sá
 6.6
8
XEKA
10
JORDAN HO
 6.7
12
JOãO CARV
21
PIZZI
14
YANIS BEG
19
ANDRé LAC
 7.3
1
ANATOLIY
 7.3
26
SAMUEL DA
 7.3
30
NICOLáS O
44
TOMáS ARA
 7.3
6
ALEXANDER
 8.0
20
RICHARD R
8
FREDRIK A
21
ANDREAS S
27
RAFA SILV
25
GIANLUCA
14
VANGELIS
SUBSTITUTES · ESTORIL
70
Peixinho
F
99
Rafik Guitan...
M
7
Nodar Lomina...
M
97
Luis Gomes
M
91
Jan Montes
D
31
Diogo Dias
G
44
Kévin Boma
D
24
Pedro Amaral
D
9
Alejandro Ma...
F
COACH: Ian Cathro
SUBSTITUTES · BENFICA
7
Bruma
F
10
Georgiy Suda...
M
18
Leandro Barr...
M
16
Manu Silva
M
11
Dodi Lukebak...
F
4
António Silv...
D
17
Amar Dedić
D
24
Samuel Soare...
G
9
Franjo Ivano...
F
COACH: Jose Mourinho
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
EST · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

BEN · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
Miguel Nogueira, Portugal
—
EST MANAGER
Ian Cathro
head coach
BEN MANAGER
Jose Mourinho
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
0
EST WINS
1
DRAWS
9
BEN WINS
10%
90%
6 – 22
TOTAL GOALS · 10 MEETINGS
2.80
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 5 / 10
03 Jan 2026
Benfica
3 – 1
Estoril
L
03 May 2025
Estoril
1 – 2
Benfica
L
23 Dec 2024
Benfica
3 – 0
Estoril
L
10 Mar 2024
Benfica
3 – 1
Estoril
L
07 Oct 2023
Estoril
0 – 1
Benfica
L
ESTORIL LAST 5 OVERALL
D D L L L
BENFICA LAST 5 OVERALL
D D W W W
MATCH IMPACT Final 1–3 · result locked
ESTORIL #10
Lost · already at 39 pts
BENFICA #3
Won · already at 80 pts
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 FC Porto 34 28 4 2 +48 88
W L W W W
2 Sporting CP 34 25 7 2 +65 82
W W W D D
3 Benfica 34 23 11 0 +49 80
W D D W W
4 SC Braga 34 16 11 7 +28 59
D D D L W
5 Famalicao 34 15 11 8 +13 56
W D D W D
6 GIL Vicente 34 13 11 10 +9 50
L L D W L
7 Moreirense 34 12 7 15 -12 43
D L W L W
8 Arouca 34 12 6 16 -17 42
W W D L W
9 Guimaraes 34 12 6 16 -12 42
L L L W W
10 Estoril 34 10 9 15 -3 39
L D D L L
11 Alverca 34 10 9 15 -17 39
L D L W L
12 Rio Ave 34 8 12 14 -22 36
D L D L D
13 Santa Clara 34 9 9 16 -9 36
L W D W D
14 Nacional 34 9 7 18 -8 34
W L L W W
15 Estrela 34 6 12 16 -18 30
D D L L L
16 Casa Pia 34 6 12 16 -26 30
D W L L L
17 Tondela 34 6 10 18 -28 28
L W W D L
18 AVS 34 3 12 19 -40 21
D W W D D
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 90'+1
    Goal · Normal Goal · Peixinho
  • 84'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Andreas Schjelderup
  • 80'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Fredrik Aursnes
  • 78'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Xeka
  • 68'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · André Lacximicant
  • 68'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Gianluca Prestianni
  • 68'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Rafa Silva
  • 68'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Alexander Bah
  • 68'
    Card · Yellow Card · Gianluca Prestianni
  • 66'
    Card · Yellow Card · Rafik Guitane
    Roughing
  • 58'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Pizzi
  • 52'
    Card · Yellow Card · André Lacximicant
    Tripping
  • 47'
    Card · Yellow Card · Alexander Bah
    Holding
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Gonçalo Costa
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Ferro
  • HALF TIME · 0 – 3
  • 22'
    Card · Yellow Card · Gonçalo Costa
    Roughing
  • 16'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Rafa Silva
  • 15'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Alexander Bah
  • 7'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Richard Ríos
12 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 12 BOOKMAKERS
ESTORIL WIN
9.96
10% implied
↑ best 11.50
DRAW
6.12
16.3% implied
↑ best 7.21
BENFICA WIN
1.25
80% implied
↑ best 1.31

Market favors Benfica. AI projects BENFICA 68% · value bet Over 2.5.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS BENFICA 68% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 10.50 5.75 1.25 +4.5%
1xBet 11.40 7.21 1.24 +5.2%
Bet365 10.00 5.50 1.27 +4.0%
Betano 11.50 6.40 1.28 +5.3%
Betfair 10.50 6.50 1.22 +4.5%
BetVictor 9.50 5.75 1.22 +3.5%
Dafabet 10.00 6.40 1.28 +4.0%
Marathonbet 10.25 6.45 1.22 +4.2%
Pinnacle 11.11 6.89 1.23 +5.0%
SBO 6.28 4.94 1.31 -1.9%
Unibet 9.00 5.60 1.28 +2.9%
William Hill 9.50 6.00 1.22 +3.5%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.09 U 6.32
2.5 O 1.37 U 2.92
3.5 O 1.96 U 1.82
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.72 9 bks
NO
2.02 9 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 1.08
Away -0.5 1.06
Away -0.75 1.00
Away -1.5 1.01
Away +0 1.06
Away +0.25 1.12
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.