GOALSENSE
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Primeira Liga · REGULAR SEASON - 33 · MON, 11 MAY · 19:15 LOCAL
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GUIMARAES
FT
0 – 1
FULL TIME
CASA PIA
GOALS
⚽ 86' Gaizka Larrazabal
CLAUDE AI · BLENDED FROM 4 MODELS
FINAL · VERIFIED
CONF 61/100 MED
🔮 PREDICTED FULL-TIME SCORE
GUI
2 – 0
CAS
most likely scoreline · 12.7% probability
AI PICKS GUIMARAES TO WIN 58%
FT 0 – 1
→
🤖 AI PROJECTED FT 2 – 0
🤖 AI BREAKDOWN

HOW AI SEES THE MATCH

FINAL · VERIFIED
GUI WIN 58%
DRAW 22%
CAS WIN 20%
h + d + a = 100% · stacked share
💰 AI BETTING TIP
OVER 1.5

AI projects 77.86% — the safest goals market. Combined value over single 1X2 pick at this confidence.

CONF 78% OVER 1.5 ✓ 4 models
🤖 AI ANALYSIS

Guimaraes home form (WWLDW) and league position (8th vs 16th) favour a comfortable win; expect low-scoring but decisive.

🤖 AI REASONING why AI picked this
WHY GUIMARAES FAVORED
58%
Guimaraes home form (WWLDW) and league position (8th vs 16th) favour a comfortable win; expect low-scoring but decisive.
+30.0%
WHY CASA PIA CHALLENGED
20%
Guimaraes at home significantly stronger (WWLDW) vs Casa Pia on road (LLLDL)
+25.0%
13-point league gap and +10 goal difference advantage heavily favour home team
+20.0%
Casa Pia's last 5 (LLLDL) shows relegation-form fragility; H2H 0-0 suggests Guimaraes can contain
+15.0%
🤖 CONTEXT · NEUTRAL FACTORS
  • Guimaraes at home significantly stronger (WWLDW) vs Casa Pia on road (LLLDL)
  • 13-point league gap and +10 goal difference advantage heavily favour home team
  • Casa Pia's last 5 (LLLDL) shows relegation-form fragility; H2H 0-0 suggests Guimaraes can contain
🤖 AI LIVE TIMELINE

PROBABILITY TIMELINE

How AI re-projects after each event
H DRAW A
100% 50% 0% KO 15' 30' HT 60' 75' FT ⚽ 86' GAIZKA LAR
Probabilities re-blended at each event · 1 event marked → Derived from goal events + remaining time
🤖 AI SCORE MATRIX

SCORELINE PROBABILITY

All possible scorelines · Poisson from xG
0% 12.7%+
0
1
2
3
4
5
6+
0
5.5
4.1
1.6
0.4
0.1
·
·
1
11.8
8.9
3.3
0.8
0.2
·
·
2
12.7
9.5
3.6
0.9
0.2
·
·
3
9.1
6.8
2.6
0.6
0.1
·
·
4
4.9
3.7
1.4
0.3
0.1
·
·
5
2.1
1.6
0.6
0.2
·
·
·
6+
0.8
0.6
0.2
·
·
·
·
MOST LIKELY · TOP 5
2 — 0 12.7%
1 — 0 11.8%
2 — 1 9.5%
3 — 0 9.1%
1 — 1 8.9%
Top 5 = 52.1% · rest 47.9%
🤖 AI VALUE FINDER

VALUE BETS

Where AI sees an edge vs bookmaker odds
8 markets · pre-match avg odds
MARKETODDSAI PROBFAIREDGE
HOME to Win
13 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.70
58.0%
1.72
-1.2%
—
Over 2.5 Goals
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.86
52.0%
1.92
-3.1%
—
HOME or AWAY (12)
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.23
78.0%
1.28
-4.0%
—
HOME or Draw (1X)
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.18
80.0%
1.25
-5.7%
—
AWAY to Win
13 bookmakers · pre-match avg
4.62
20.0%
5.00
-7.7%
—
Draw or AWAY (X2)
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
2.10
42.0%
2.38
-12.0%
—
Both Teams Score — YES
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.79
48.0%
2.08
-14.2%
—
Draw
13 bookmakers · pre-match avg
3.84
22.0%
4.55
-15.4%
—
⚠ 18+ only. Odds change frequently. AI predictions are not guarantees. Bet responsibly.