GOALSENSE
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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 1–1 · TONDELA 38%
CONF 48 FULL ANALYSIS →
Primeira Liga · REGULAR SEASON - 33 · MON, 11 MAY · 19:15 LOCAL
TONDELA
17TH · 28 PTS · LAST 5:
L W D L L
FT
2 – 0
FULL TIME HT · 1-0
MOREIRENSE
D W L W D
· 7TH · 43 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 18' Makan Aïko ⚽ 60' Rony Lopes
GOALS
Makan Aïko
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Makan Aïko
Tondela · 72 mins
⚽ 1 goal · 10% pass acc · 2 shots on
RATING
8.2
PREDICTIONS
▶ MATCH HIGHLIGHTS

Goals, key moments & recap 3 CLIPS

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Primeira Liga: Tondela vs Moreirense
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Primeira Liga: Tondela vs Moreirense
Primeira Liga: Tondela vs Moreirense
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

1.39
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
0.29
40%
BALL POSSESSION %
60%
14
TOTAL SHOTS
10
3
SHOTS ON TARGET
2
79%
PASS ACCURACY %
86%
1
CORNERS
8
KEY EVENTS 16 events
  1. 18'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Makan Aïko · assist Maranhão
    TON
  2. 29'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Alan
    MOR
  3. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Kiko Bondoso · assist Cedric Teguia
    MOR
  4. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Mateja Stjepanović · assist Luís Semedo
    MOR
  5. 60'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Rony Lopes · assist Tiago Manso
    TON
  6. 72'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Rony Lopes · assist Joe Hodge
    TON
  7. 72'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Makan Aïko · assist Hélder Tavares
    TON
  8. 73'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Cicero · assist Benjamin Mbunga-Kimpioka
    TON
  9. 74'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Kiko · assist Landerson
    MOR
  10. 74'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Alan · assist Yan Maranhão
    MOR
  11. 77'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Fabiano Souza
    MOR
  12. 83'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Fabiano Souza · assist Leandro Santos
    MOR
  13. 83'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Hugo Félix · assist Jordan Siebatcheu
    TON
  14. 90'+1
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Maranhão · assist João Afonso
    TON
  15. 90'+3
    Card · Yellow Card
    Cedric Teguia
    MOR
  16. 90'+4
    Card · Yellow Card
    Jordan Siebatcheu
    TON
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
TONDELA AVG 7.5
  • Makan Aïko
    72' · 1G · 2 shots · 10.00% pass
    8.2
  • Rony Lopes
    72' · 1G · 3 shots · 18.00% pass
    7.9
  • Cicero
    72' · 1 shots · 35.00% pass
    7.3
  • Tiago Manso
    87' · 1A · 21.00% pass
    7.2
  • Maranhão
    87' · 1A · 3 shots · 12.00% pass
    7.0
MOREIRENSE AVG 6.9
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
1.4
xG
0.3
14.0
TOTAL SHOTS
10.0
3.0
ON TARGET
2.0
6.0
OFF TARGET
6.0
5.0
BLOCKED
2.0
POSSESSION
40.0%
POSSESSION %
60.0%
365.0
PASSES
535.0
79.0%
PASS ACCURACY
86.0%
SET PIECES
1.0
CORNERS
8.0
1.0
OFFSIDES
1.0
DISCIPLINE
13.0
FOULS
9.0
0.0
YELLOW CARDS
3.0
2.0
GK SAVES
1.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
TONDELA 9 shots
Rony Lopes
1/3
Maranhão
0/3
Makan Aïko
2/2
Cicero
0/1
MOREIRENSE 1 shots
Luís Semedo
0/1
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 1.39 – 0.29
1.1 0.8 0.6 0.3 1.4 0.0 HT 18' 60' H 1.39 A 0.29 KO 30' 60' FT

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 50%
50% A
8
EVENTS LOGGED
8
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 4-2-3-1 vs 4-2-3-1
4-2-3-1
4-2-3-1
31
BERNARDO
27
RODRIGO C
4
CHRISTIAN
44
JOãO SILV
 7.2
48
TIAGO MAN
32
JUAN RODR
 7.3
97
CICERO
 8.2
90
MAKAN AïK
79
HUGO FéLI
 7.0
7
MARANHãO
 7.9
16
RONY LOPE
 6.9
22
CAIO SECC
27
KIKO
26
MARACáS
 7.2
4
KEVYN MON
70
FABIANO S
 7.2
25
AFONSO AS
8
MATEJA ST
 6.7
10
KIKO BOND
23
NILE JOHN
2
DIOGO TRA
11
ALAN
SUBSTITUTES · TONDELA
29
Jordan Sieba...
F
23
Benjamin Mbu...
F
15
Siphephelo S...
M
10
Joe Hodge
M
8
Hélder Tavar...
M
2
Bebeto
D
5
João Afonso
D
1
Gabriel Souz...
G
26
Arjen Van De...
F
COACH: Goncalo Feio
SUBSTITUTES · MOREIRENSE
78
Landerson
F
30
Jimi Gower
M
17
Álvaro Martí...
D
71
Leandro Sant...
D
66
Gilberto Bat...
D
16
Mika
G
9
Luís Semedo
F
7
Cedric Tegui...
F
99
Yan Maranhão
F
COACH: Vasco Costa
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
TON · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

MOR · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
R. Baixinho
—
TON MANAGER
Goncalo Feio
head coach
MOR MANAGER
Vasco Costa
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
3
TON WINS
3
DRAWS
4
MOR WINS
30%
30%
40%
10 – 13
TOTAL GOALS · 10 MEETINGS
2.30
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 5 / 10
11 Jan 2026
Moreirense
1 – 0
Tondela
L
29 Apr 2023
Moreirense
2 – 1
Tondela
L
14 Nov 2022
Tondela
1 – 1
Moreirense
D
16 Apr 2022
Moreirense
2 – 0
Tondela
L
03 Jan 2022
Tondela
2 – 1
Moreirense
W
TONDELA LAST 5 OVERALL
L W D L L
MOREIRENSE LAST 5 OVERALL
D W L W D
MATCH IMPACT Final 2–0 · result locked
TONDELA #17
Won · already at 28 pts
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2
MOREIRENSE #7
Lost · already at 43 pts
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 FC Porto 34 28 4 2 +48 88
W L W W W
2 Sporting CP 34 25 7 2 +65 82
W W W D D
3 Benfica 34 23 11 0 +49 80
W D D W W
4 SC Braga 34 16 11 7 +28 59
D D D L W
5 Famalicao 34 15 11 8 +13 56
W D D W D
6 GIL Vicente 34 13 11 10 +9 50
L L D W L
7 Moreirense 34 12 7 15 -12 43
D L W L W
8 Arouca 34 12 6 16 -17 42
W W D L W
9 Guimaraes 34 12 6 16 -12 42
L L L W W
10 Estoril 34 10 9 15 -3 39
L D D L L
11 Alverca 34 10 9 15 -17 39
L D L W L
12 Rio Ave 34 8 12 14 -22 36
D L D L D
13 Santa Clara 34 9 9 16 -9 36
L W D W D
14 Nacional 34 9 7 18 -8 34
W L L W W
15 Estrela 34 6 12 16 -18 30
D D L L L
16 Casa Pia 34 6 12 16 -26 30
D W L L L
17 Tondela 34 6 10 18 -28 28
L W W D L
18 AVS 34 3 12 19 -40 21
D W W D D
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 90'+4
    Card · Yellow Card · Jordan Siebatcheu
  • 90'+3
    Card · Yellow Card · Cedric Teguia
  • 90'+1
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Maranhão
  • 83'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Hugo Félix
  • 83'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Fabiano Souza
  • 77'
    Card · Yellow Card · Fabiano Souza
  • 74'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Alan
  • 74'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Kiko
  • 73'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Cicero
  • 72'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Makan Aïko
  • 72'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Rony Lopes
  • 60'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Rony Lopes
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Mateja Stjepanović
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Kiko Bondoso
  • HALF TIME · 1 – 0
  • 29'
    Card · Yellow Card · Alan
  • 18'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Makan Aïko
13 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 13 BOOKMAKERS
TONDELA WIN
1.91
52.4% implied
↑ best 1.94
DRAW
3.42
29.2% implied
↑ best 3.58
MOREIRENSE WIN
3.99
25.1% implied
↑ best 4.21

Market favors Tondela. AI projects TONDELA 38%.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS TONDELA 38% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 1.92 3.45 3.85 +8.0%
1xBet 1.94 3.58 4.21 +10.2%
888Sport 1.91 3.30 3.90 +8.4%
Bet365 1.90 3.40 4.00 +9.0%
Betano 1.93 3.45 4.05 +9.3%
Betfair 1.90 3.40 4.00 +9.0%
BetVictor 1.87 3.30 3.90 +8.4%
Dafabet 1.94 3.55 4.10 +9.6%
Marathonbet 1.87 3.44 4.05 +9.3%
Pinnacle 1.94 3.52 4.14 +9.8%
SBO 1.89 3.35 3.83 +7.9%
Unibet 1.90 3.40 4.00 +9.0%
William Hill 1.91 3.30 3.90 +8.4%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.31 U 3.23
2.5 O 2.01 U 1.78
3.5 O 3.54 U 1.26
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.84 10 bks
NO
1.88 10 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 2.24
Away -0.5 1.90
Away -0.75 1.67
Away -1 1.45
Away -1.25 1.35
Away -1.5 1.28
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.