GOALSENSE
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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 1–2 · SPORTING CP 76% · Value: Over 2.5 68%
CONF 72 FULL ANALYSIS →
Primeira Liga · REGULAR SEASON - 33 · MON, 11 MAY · 19:15 LOCAL
RIO AVE
13TH · 35 PTS · LAST 5:
D L D W L
FT
1 – 4
FULL TIME HT · 1-2
SPORTING CP
W D D L D
· 2ND · 79 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 12' Diogo Bezerra
GOALS
⚽ 35' L. Suárez (P) ⚽ 42' Gustavo Mancha (OG) ⚽ 66' Francisco Trincão ⚽ 90' Geovany Quenda
Diogo Bezerra
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Diogo Bezerra
Rio Ave · 73 mins
⚽ 1 goal · 10% pass acc · 1 shots on
RATING
7.9
PREDICTIONS
▶ MATCH HIGHLIGHTS

Goals, key moments & recap 8 CLIPS

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Primeira Liga: Rio Ave FC vs Sporting CP
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Primeira Liga: Rio Ave FC vs Sporting CP
Primeira Liga: Rio Ave FC vs Sporting CP
Primeira Liga: Rio Ave FC vs Sporting CP
Primeira Liga: Rio Ave FC vs Sporting CP
Primeira Liga: Rio Ave FC vs Sporting CP
Primeira Liga: Rio Ave FC vs Sporting CP
Primeira Liga: Rio Ave FC vs Sporting CP
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

0.70
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
1.49
35%
BALL POSSESSION %
65%
12
TOTAL SHOTS
15
3
SHOTS ON TARGET
4
82%
PASS ACCURACY %
91%
5
CORNERS
6
KEY EVENTS 24 events
  1. 12'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Diogo Bezerra · assist Cezary Miszta
    RIO
  2. 13'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Diogo Bezerra
    RIO
  3. 32'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Ousmane Diomande
    SPO
  4. 32'
    Card · Yellow Card
    L. Suárez
    SPO
  5. 34'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Francisco Petrasso
    RIO
  6. 35'
    Goal · Penalty
    L. Suárez
    SPO
  7. 42'
    Goal · Own Goal
    Gustavo Mancha
    SPO
  8. 52'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Francisco Petrasso
    RIO
  9. 52'
    Card · Red Card
    Francisco Petrasso
    RIO
  10. 55'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Tamblé Monteiro · assist Jakub Brabec
    RIO
  11. 64'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Luís Guilherme · assist Geny Catamo
    SPO
  12. 64'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Marios Vrousai · assist João Tomé
    RIO
  13. 65'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Hidemasa Morita · assist Geovany Quenda
    SPO
  14. 66'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Francisco Trincão · assist Ousmane Diomande
    SPO
  15. 72'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Nelson Abbey · assist Omar Richards
    RIO
  16. 73'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Dario Špikić · assist Antonis Papakanellos
    RIO
  17. 73'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Diogo Bezerra · assist Andreas Ndoj
    RIO
  18. 82'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Pedro Gonçalves · assist Eduardo Felicíssimo
    SPO
  19. 82'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Daniel Bragança · assist Giorgi Kochorashvili
    SPO
  20. 83'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Ryan Guilherme
    RIO
  21. 85'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Ryan Guilherme
    RIO
  22. 85'
    Card · Red Card
    Ryan Guilherme
    RIO
  23. 90'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Geovany Quenda · assist Maximiliano Araújo
    SPO
  24. 90'+1
    Subst · Substitution 5
    L. Suárez · assist Rafael Nel
    SPO
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
RIO AVE AVG 7.1
SPORTING CP AVG 7.3
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
0.7
xG
1.5
12.0
TOTAL SHOTS
15.0
3.0
ON TARGET
4.0
6.0
OFF TARGET
6.0
3.0
BLOCKED
5.0
POSSESSION
35.0%
POSSESSION %
65.0%
289.0
PASSES
533.0
82.0%
PASS ACCURACY
91.0%
SET PIECES
5.0
CORNERS
6.0
DISCIPLINE
9.0
FOULS
7.0
5.0
YELLOW CARDS
2.0
2.0
RED CARDS
0.0
2.0
GK SAVES
2.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
RIO AVE 7 shots
Tamblé Monteiro
2/4
Diogo Bezerra
1/1
Jalen Blesa
0/1
João Tomé
0/1
SPORTING CP 6 shots
L. Suárez
1/5
Francisco Trincão
1/1
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 0.70 – 1.49
1.2 0.9 0.6 0.3 1.5 0.0 HT 12' 35' 42' 66' 90' H 0.70 A 1.49 KO 30' 60' FT

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 54%
46% A
13
EVENTS LOGGED
11
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 4-2-3-1 vs 4-2-3-1
4-2-3-1
4-2-3-1
1
CEZARY MI
6
NELSON AB
39
GUSTAVO M
23
FRANCISCO
17
MARIOS VR
8
RYAN GUIL
44
TAMáS NIK
18
DARIO ŠPI
 7.3
11
JALEN BLE
 7.9
7
DIOGO BEZ
 7.0
9
TAMBLé MO
1
RUI SILVA
20
MAXIMILIA
25
GONçALO I
26
OUSMANE D
72
QUARESMA
 6.9
5
HIDEMASA
 7.2
23
DANIEL BR
8
PEDRO GON
 7.7
17
FRANCISCO
31
LUíS GUIL
 7.7
97
L. SUáREZ
SUBSTITUTES · RIO AVE
54
Georgios Lia...
M
80
Olinho
M
19
Antonis Papa...
M
77
Omar Richard...
D
63
Julien Lombo...
D
20
João Tomé
D
32
Jakub Brabec
D
99
Ennio Van De...
G
5
Andreas Ndoj
D
COACH: Sotiris Sylaidopoulos
SUBSTITUTES · SPORTING CP
15
Souleymane F...
F
7
Geovany Quen...
M
10
Geny Catamo
M
73
Eduardo Feli...
M
70
Salvador Blo...
D
14
Giorgi Kocho...
M
91
Ricardo Mang...
D
12
João Virgíni...
G
90
Rafael Nel
F
COACH: Rui Borges
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
RIO · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

SPO · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
Joao Antonio Ferreira Goncalves, Portugal
—
RIO MANAGER
Sotiris Sylaidopoulos
head coach
SPO MANAGER
Rui Borges
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
0
RIO WINS
1
DRAWS
9
SPO WINS
10%
90%
5 – 25
TOTAL GOALS · 10 MEETINGS
3.00
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 5 / 10
28 Dec 2025
Sporting CP
4 – 0
Rio Ave
L
18 Jan 2025
Rio Ave
0 – 3
Sporting CP
L
09 Aug 2024
Sporting CP
3 – 1
Rio Ave
L
25 Feb 2024
Rio Ave
3 – 3
Sporting CP
D
25 Sep 2023
Sporting CP
2 – 0
Rio Ave
L
RIO AVE LAST 5 OVERALL
D L D W L
SPORTING CP LAST 5 OVERALL
W D D L D
MATCH IMPACT Final 1–4 · result locked
RIO AVE #13
Lost · already at 35 pts
SPORTING CP #2
Won · already at 79 pts
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 FC Porto 33 27 4 2 +47 85
L W W W W
2 Sporting CP 33 24 7 2 +62 79
W W D D L
3 Benfica 33 22 11 0 +47 77
D D W W W
4 SC Braga 33 16 10 7 +28 58
D D L W D
5 Famalicao 33 14 11 8 +12 53
D D W D D
6 GIL Vicente 33 13 11 9 +12 50
L D W L D
7 Moreirense 33 12 6 15 -12 42
L W L W D
8 Guimaraes 33 12 6 15 -10 42
L L W W D
9 Estoril 33 10 9 14 -1 39
D D L L L
10 Arouca 33 11 6 16 -19 39
W D L W L
11 Alverca 33 10 9 14 -16 39
D L W L W
12 Santa Clara 33 9 9 15 -8 36
W D W D L
13 Rio Ave 33 8 11 14 -22 35
L D L D W
14 Nacional 33 8 7 18 -10 31
L L W W L
15 Estrela 33 6 11 16 -18 29
D L L L L
16 Casa Pia 33 6 11 16 -26 29
W L L L D
17 Tondela 33 6 10 17 -26 28
W W D L L
18 AVS 33 3 11 19 -40 20
W W D D D
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 90'+1
    Subst · Substitution 5 · L. Suárez
  • 90'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Geovany Quenda
  • 85'
    Card · Red Card · Ryan Guilherme
    Roughing
  • 85'
    Card · Yellow Card · Ryan Guilherme
    Roughing
  • 83'
    Card · Yellow Card · Ryan Guilherme
    Roughing
  • 82'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Daniel Bragança
  • 82'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Pedro Gonçalves
  • 73'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Diogo Bezerra
  • 73'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Dario Špikić
  • 72'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Nelson Abbey
  • 66'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Francisco Trincão
  • 65'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Hidemasa Morita
  • 64'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Marios Vrousai
  • 64'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Luís Guilherme
  • 55'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Tamblé Monteiro
  • 52'
    Card · Red Card · Francisco Petrasso
    Roughing
  • 52'
    Card · Yellow Card · Francisco Petrasso
    Roughing
  • HALF TIME · 1 – 2
  • 42'
    Goal · Own Goal · Gustavo Mancha
  • 35'
    Goal · Penalty · L. Suárez
  • 34'
    Card · Yellow Card · Francisco Petrasso
    Holding
  • 32'
    Card · Yellow Card · L. Suárez
    Diving
  • 32'
    Card · Yellow Card · Ousmane Diomande
  • 13'
    Card · Yellow Card · Diogo Bezerra
    Unsportsmanlike conduct
  • 12'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Diogo Bezerra
13 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 13 BOOKMAKERS
RIO AVE WIN
13.06
7.7% implied
↑ best 16.00
DRAW
7.08
14.1% implied
↑ best 8.65
SPORTING CP WIN
1.19
84% implied
↑ best 1.22

Market favors Sporting CP. AI projects SPORTING CP 76% · value bet Over 2.5.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS SPORTING CP 76% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 13.00 6.40 1.20 +1.3%
1xBet 16.00 8.65 1.17 +3.4%
888Sport 12.00 7.00 1.18 +0.7%
Bet365 13.00 6.25 1.20 +1.3%
Betano 15.50 7.10 1.22 +2.5%
Betfair 13.00 7.50 1.17 +1.7%
BetVictor 13.00 6.50 1.17 +1.3%
Dafabet 13.00 7.40 1.21 +1.5%
Marathonbet 14.00 7.40 1.16 +1.9%
Pinnacle 13.12 7.73 1.19 +2.1%
SBO 10.60 6.57 1.20 -0.2%
Unibet 11.50 6.50 1.20 +0.3%
William Hill 12.00 7.00 1.18 +0.7%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.09 U 6.56
2.5 O 1.35 U 3.00
3.5 O 1.94 U 1.83
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.88 10 bks
NO
1.83 10 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away +0 1.02
Away +0.25 1.08
Away +0.5 1.19
Away +0.75 1.22
Away +1 1.26
Away +1.25 1.38
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.