GOALSENSE
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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 2–0 · NACIONAL 62%
CONF 58 FULL ANALYSIS →
Primeira Liga · REGULAR SEASON - 32 · SAT, 02 MAY · 14:30 LOCAL
NACIONAL
14TH · 31 PTS · LAST 5:
L W W L W
FT
1 – 2
FULL TIME HT · 1-1
AVS
W D D D L
· 18TH · 20 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 4' Filipe Soares
GOALS
⚽ 22' Pedro Lima ⚽ 63' Guilherme Neiva
Filipe Soares
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Filipe Soares
Nacional · 87 mins
⚽ 1 goal · 55% pass acc · 1 shots on
RATING
8.2
PREDICTIONS
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

1.12
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
1.54
68%
BALL POSSESSION %
32%
17
TOTAL SHOTS
19
6
SHOTS ON TARGET
3
84%
PASS ACCURACY %
72%
7
CORNERS
6
KEY EVENTS 18 events
  1. 4'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Filipe Soares
    NAC
  2. 22'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Pedro Lima · assist Tunde Akinsola
    AVS
  3. 41'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Gabriel Veron
    NAC
  4. 45'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Paulo Vitor
    AVS
  5. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Gabriel Veron · assist Liziero
    NAC
  6. 55'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Chiheb Labidi
    NAC
  7. 59'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Ze Vitor
    NAC
  8. 63'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Guilherme Neiva · assist Diego Duarte
    AVS
  9. 64'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Tiago Galletto · assist Ponck
    AVS
  10. 71'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Daniel Júnior · assist Lucas João
    NAC
  11. 71'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Chiheb Labidi · assist Pablo Messias Cardozo
    NAC
  12. 72'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Guilherme Neiva · assist Tomané
    AVS
  13. 88'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    José Gomes · assist Witiness Quembo
    NAC
  14. 88'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Alan Núñez · assist João Aurélio
    NAC
  15. 89'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Adriel
    AVS
  16. 90'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Tunde Akinsola · assist Guillem Molina
    AVS
  17. 90'+4
    Card · Yellow Card
    Ze Vitor
    NAC
  18. 90'+4
    Card · Red Card
    Ze Vitor
    NAC
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
NACIONAL AVG 7.3
AVS AVG 7.5
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
1.1
xG
1.5
17.0
TOTAL SHOTS
19.0
6.0
ON TARGET
3.0
6.0
OFF TARGET
7.0
5.0
BLOCKED
9.0
POSSESSION
68.0%
POSSESSION %
32.0%
414.0
PASSES
193.0
84.0%
PASS ACCURACY
72.0%
SET PIECES
7.0
CORNERS
6.0
0.0
OFFSIDES
1.0
DISCIPLINE
8.0
FOULS
14.0
4.0
YELLOW CARDS
2.0
1.0
RED CARDS
0.0
1.0
GK SAVES
4.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
NACIONAL 3 shots
Filipe Soares
1/1
Paulinho Bóia
1/1
José Gomes
1/1
AVS 8 shots
Guilherme Neiva
1/4
Pedro Lima
2/2
Tunde Akinsola
0/2
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 1.12 – 1.54
1.2 0.9 0.6 0.3 1.5 0.0 HT 4' 22' 63' H 1.12 A 1.54 KO 30' 60' FT

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 61%
39% A
11
EVENTS LOGGED
7
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 4-2-3-1 vs 4-3-3
4-2-3-1
4-3-3
1
KAIQUE
 7.2
5
JOSé GOME
38
ZE VITOR
34
LéO SANTO
 7.0
16
ALAN NúñE
 8.2
22
FILIPE SO
15
CHIHEB LA
 7.3
11
PAULINHO
10
DANIEL Jú
27
GABRIEL V
9
JESúS RAM
1
ADRIEL
 7.6
12
DANIEL RI
3
PAULO VIT
42
CRISTIAN
97
MATEUS PI
 7.7
8
PEDRO LIM
70
RONI
19
TIAGO GAL
 8.2
21
GUILHERME
 6.9
20
DIEGO DUA
 7.2
11
TUNDE AKI
SUBSTITUTES · NACIONAL
19
Lucas João
F
7
Witiness Que...
F
26
Joel Silva
M
6
Matheus Dias
M
33
Francisco Go...
D
2
João Aurélio
D
50
Kevyn
G
28
Liziero
M
99
Pablo Messia...
F
COACH: Tiago Margarido
SUBSTITUTES · AVS
18
Nenê
F
14
Óscar Perea
F
27
Ángel Algobi...
M
5
Guillem Moli...
D
26
Ponck
D
33
Aderllan San...
D
93
Simão
G
88
Pedro Trigue...
G
7
Tomané
F
COACH: Joao Henriques
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
NAC · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

AVS · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
M. Torres
—
NAC MANAGER
Tiago Margarido
head coach
AVS MANAGER
Joao Henriques
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
3
NAC WINS
2
DRAWS
0
AVS WINS
60%
40%
9 – 5
TOTAL GOALS · 5 MEETINGS
2.80
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 5 / 5
21 Dec 2025
AVS
2 – 2
Nacional
D
19 Jan 2025
Nacional
3 – 1
AVS
W
10 Aug 2024
AVS
1 – 1
Nacional
D
06 Apr 2024
Nacional
2 – 1
AVS
W
19 Nov 2023
AVS
0 – 1
Nacional
W
NACIONAL LAST 5 OVERALL
L W W L W
AVS LAST 5 OVERALL
W D D D L
MATCH IMPACT Final 1–2 · result locked
NACIONAL #14
Lost · already at 31 pts
AVS #18
Won · already at 20 pts
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 FC Porto 33 27 4 2 +47 85
L W W W W
2 Sporting CP 33 24 7 2 +62 79
W W D D L
3 Benfica 33 22 11 0 +47 77
D D W W W
4 SC Braga 33 16 10 7 +28 58
D D L W D
5 Famalicao 33 14 11 8 +12 53
D D W D D
6 GIL Vicente 33 13 11 9 +12 50
L D W L D
7 Moreirense 33 12 6 15 -12 42
L W L W D
8 Guimaraes 33 12 6 15 -10 42
L L W W D
9 Estoril 33 10 9 14 -1 39
D D L L L
10 Arouca 33 11 6 16 -19 39
W D L W L
11 Alverca 33 10 9 14 -16 39
D L W L W
12 Santa Clara 33 9 9 15 -8 36
W D W D L
13 Rio Ave 33 8 11 14 -22 35
L D L D W
14 Nacional 33 8 7 18 -10 31
L L W W L
15 Estrela 33 6 11 16 -18 29
D L L L L
16 Casa Pia 33 6 11 16 -26 29
W L L L D
17 Tondela 33 6 10 17 -26 28
W W D L L
18 AVS 33 3 11 19 -40 20
W W D D D
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 90'+4
    Card · Red Card · Ze Vitor
  • 90'+4
    Card · Yellow Card · Ze Vitor
  • 90'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Tunde Akinsola
  • 89'
    Card · Yellow Card · Adriel
  • 88'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Alan Núñez
  • 88'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · José Gomes
  • 72'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Guilherme Neiva
  • 71'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Chiheb Labidi
  • 71'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Daniel Júnior
  • 64'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Tiago Galletto
  • 63'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Guilherme Neiva
  • 59'
    Card · Yellow Card · Ze Vitor
  • 55'
    Card · Yellow Card · Chiheb Labidi
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Gabriel Veron
  • HALF TIME · 1 – 1
  • 45'
    Card · Yellow Card · Paulo Vitor
  • 41'
    Card · Yellow Card · Gabriel Veron
  • 22'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Pedro Lima
  • 4'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Filipe Soares
12 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 12 BOOKMAKERS
NACIONAL WIN
1.50
66.7% implied
↑ best 1.55
DRAW
4.33
23.1% implied
↑ best 4.62
AVS WIN
6.00
16.7% implied
↑ best 6.50

Market favors Nacional. AI projects NACIONAL 62%.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS NACIONAL 62% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 1.51 4.20 5.90 -0.9%
1xBet 1.55 4.52 6.08 -0.1%
Bet365 1.48 4.20 6.50 +0.6%
Betano 1.53 4.35 6.00 -0.7%
Betfair 1.50 4.33 6.00 -0.7%
BetVictor 1.45 4.20 6.00 -0.7%
Dafabet 1.52 4.60 6.20 +0.3%
Marathonbet 1.49 4.35 5.85 -1.0%
Pinnacle 1.52 4.62 6.20 +0.4%
SBO 1.48 4.24 5.80 -1.2%
Unibet 1.52 4.20 6.00 -0.7%
William Hill 1.50 4.20 5.50 -1.8%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.20 U 4.24
2.5 O 1.68 U 2.17
3.5 O 2.62 U 1.45
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.75 9 bks
NO
1.98 9 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 3.11
Away -0.5 2.53
Away -0.75 2.24
Away -1 1.98
Away -1.25 1.71
Away -1.5 1.56
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.