GOALSENSE
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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 3–2 · MOREIRENSE 92% · Value: Over 2.5 94%
CONF 88 FULL ANALYSIS →
Primeira Liga · REGULAR SEASON - 32 · SAT, 02 MAY · 14:30 LOCAL
MOREIRENSE
7TH · 42 PTS · LAST 5:
L L W D L
FT
3 – 2
FULL TIME HT · 1-2
ESTRELA
D L L L L
· 15TH · 29 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 45' Alan (P) ⚽ 45+1' Alan ⚽ 73' Luís Semedo ⚽ 90+4' Maracás
GOALS
⚽ 13' Jovane Cabral (P) ⚽ 36' Ianis Stoica (P)
Maracás
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Maracás
Moreirense · 94 mins
⚽ 1 goal · 71% pass acc · 1 shots on
RATING
7.9
PREDICTIONS
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

1.22
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
2.75
66%
BALL POSSESSION %
34%
12
TOTAL SHOTS
10
4
SHOTS ON TARGET
3
88%
PASS ACCURACY %
74%
1
CORNERS
4
KEY EVENTS 34 events
  1. 12'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Caio Secco
    MOR
  2. 13'
    Goal · Penalty
    Jovane Cabral
    EST
  3. 25'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Rodrigo Pinho
    EST
  4. 31'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Max Scholze
    EST
  5. 36'
    Goal · Penalty
    Ianis Stoica
    EST
  6. 40'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Rodrigo Alonso
    MOR
  7. 45'
    Goal · Missed Penalty
    Alan · assist Alan
    MOR
  8. 45'+1
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Alan
    MOR
  9. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Mateja Stjepanović · assist Nile John
    MOR
  10. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Afonso Assis · assist Yan Maranhão
    MOR
  11. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Afonso Assis · assist Yan Maranhão
    MOR
  12. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Mateja Stjepanović · assist Nile John
    MOR
  13. 50'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Fabiano Souza
    MOR
  14. 64'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Rodrigo Pinho · assist Sydney van Hooijdonk
    EST
  15. 64'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Rodrigo Pinho · assist Sydney van Hooijdonk
    EST
  16. 68'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Alan · assist Luís Semedo
    MOR
  17. 68'
    Subst · Substitution 6
    Landerson · assist Kiko
    MOR
  18. 68'
    Subst · Substitution 7
    Landerson · assist Kiko
    MOR
  19. 68'
    Subst · Substitution 8
    Alan · assist Luís Semedo
    MOR
  20. 69'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Jovane Cabral · assist Kevin Höög Jansson
    EST
  21. 69'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Bruno Langa · assist Jefferson Encada
    EST
  22. 69'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Bruno Langa · assist Jefferson Encada
    EST
  23. 69'
    Subst · Substitution 6
    Jovane Cabral · assist Kevin Höög Jansson
    EST
  24. 73'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Luís Semedo · assist Kiko
    MOR
  25. 76'
    Subst · Substitution 9
    Fabiano Souza · assist Leandro Santos
    MOR
  26. 76'
    Subst · Substitution 10
    Fabiano Souza · assist Leandro Santos
    MOR
  27. 77'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Jefferson Encada
    EST
  28. 81'
    Subst · Substitution 7
    Abraham Marcus · assist Tom Moustier
    EST
  29. 81'
    Subst · Substitution 8
    Alex Sola · assist Jorge Meireles
    EST
  30. 81'
    Subst · Substitution 9
    Alex Sola · assist Jorge Meireles
    EST
  31. 81'
    Subst · Substitution 10
    Abraham Marcus · assist Tom Moustier
    EST
  32. 90'+4
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Maracás
    MOR
  33. 90'+4
    Card · Yellow Card
    Gilberto Batista
    MOR
  34. 90'+4
    Card · Yellow Card
    Otavio
    EST
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
MOREIRENSE AVG 7.3
  • Maracás
    94' · 1G · 1 shots · 71.00% pass
    7.9
  • Luís Semedo
    26' · 1G · 1 shots · 3.00% pass
    7.5
  • Landerson
    68' · 25.00% pass
    7.3
  • Kiko
    26' · 6.00% pass
    7.0
  • Alan
    68' · 1G · 2 shots · 34.00% pass
    6.7
ESTRELA AVG 6.9
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
1.2
xG
2.8
12.0
TOTAL SHOTS
10.0
4.0
ON TARGET
3.0
3.0
OFF TARGET
4.0
5.0
BLOCKED
3.0
POSSESSION
66.0%
POSSESSION %
34.0%
553.0
PASSES
276.0
88.0%
PASS ACCURACY
74.0%
SET PIECES
1.0
CORNERS
4.0
1.0
OFFSIDES
0.0
DISCIPLINE
18.0
FOULS
17.0
4.0
YELLOW CARDS
4.0
1.0
GK SAVES
2.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
MOREIRENSE 4 shots
Alan
2/2
Maracás
1/1
Luís Semedo
1/1
ESTRELA 5 shots
Jovane Cabral
1/2
Ianis Stoica
1/2
Rodrigo Pinho
0/1
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 1.22 – 2.75
2.2 1.7 1.1 0.6 2.8 0.0 HT 45' 45' 73' 90' 13' 36' H 1.22 A 2.75 KO 30' 60' FT

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 53%
47% A
18
EVENTS LOGGED
16
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 4-2-3-1 vs 4-2-3-1
4-2-3-1
4-2-3-1
22
CAIO SECC
2
DIOGO TRA
 7.9
26
MARACáS
66
GILBERTO
70
FABIANO S
21
RODRIGO A
25
AFONSO AS
 7.3
78
LANDERSON
8
MATEJA ST
10
KIKO BOND
 6.7
11
ALAN
40
RENAN RIB
 6.7
24
BRUNO LAN
83
OTAVIO
30
LUAN PATR
21
MAX SCHOL
 6.9
63
ALEX SOLA
19
PAULO MOR
 7.0
10
IANIS STO
 7.3
11
JOVANE CA
99
ABRAHAM M
 6.7
9
RODRIGO P
SUBSTITUTES · MOREIRENSE
30
Jimi Gower
M
7
Cedric Tegui...
F
71
Leandro Sant...
D
27
Kiko
D
4
Kevyn Montei...
D
13
André Ferrei...
G
99
Yan Maranhão
F
23
Nile John
M
9
Luís Semedo
F
COACH: Vasco Costa
SUBSTITUTES · ESTRELA
20
Sydney van H...
F
28
Tom Moustier
M
80
Alisson Souz...
F
39
Eddy Doué
M
6
Kevin Höög J...
M
17
Jefferson En...
D
3
Ni
D
1
Diogo Pinto
G
18
Jorge Meirel...
F
COACH: Joao Nuno
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
MOR · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

EST · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
H. Malheiro
—
MOR MANAGER
Vasco Costa
head coach
EST MANAGER
Joao Nuno
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
3
MOR WINS
4
DRAWS
1
EST WINS
37.5%
50%
12.5%
13 – 9
TOTAL GOALS · 8 MEETINGS
2.75
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 5 / 8
20 Dec 2025
Estrela
0 – 0
Moreirense
D
02 Mar 2025
Moreirense
1 – 1
Estrela
D
28 Sep 2024
Estrela
2 – 1
Moreirense
L
07 Apr 2024
Moreirense
2 – 2
Estrela
D
11 Nov 2023
Estrela
0 – 1
Moreirense
W
MOREIRENSE LAST 5 OVERALL
L L W D L
ESTRELA LAST 5 OVERALL
D L L L L
MATCH IMPACT Final 3–2 · result locked
MOREIRENSE #7
Won · already at 42 pts
ESTRELA #15
Lost · already at 29 pts
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 FC Porto 33 27 4 2 +47 85
L W W W W
2 Sporting CP 33 24 7 2 +62 79
W W D D L
3 Benfica 33 22 11 0 +47 77
D D W W W
4 SC Braga 33 16 10 7 +28 58
D D L W D
5 Famalicao 33 14 11 8 +12 53
D D W D D
6 GIL Vicente 33 13 11 9 +12 50
L D W L D
7 Moreirense 33 12 6 15 -12 42
L W L W D
8 Guimaraes 33 12 6 15 -10 42
L L W W D
9 Estoril 33 10 9 14 -1 39
D D L L L
10 Arouca 33 11 6 16 -19 39
W D L W L
11 Alverca 33 10 9 14 -16 39
D L W L W
12 Santa Clara 33 9 9 15 -8 36
W D W D L
13 Rio Ave 33 8 11 14 -22 35
L D L D W
14 Nacional 33 8 7 18 -10 31
L L W W L
15 Estrela 33 6 11 16 -18 29
D L L L L
16 Casa Pia 33 6 11 16 -26 29
W L L L D
17 Tondela 33 6 10 17 -26 28
W W D L L
18 AVS 33 3 11 19 -40 20
W W D D D
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 90'+4
    Card · Yellow Card · Otavio
    misses next match
  • 90'+4
    Card · Yellow Card · Gilberto Batista
  • 90'+4
    Goal · Normal Goal · Maracás
  • 81'
    Subst · Substitution 10 · Abraham Marcus
  • 81'
    Subst · Substitution 9 · Alex Sola
  • 81'
    Subst · Substitution 8 · Alex Sola
  • 81'
    Subst · Substitution 7 · Abraham Marcus
  • 77'
    Card · Yellow Card · Jefferson Encada
  • 76'
    Subst · Substitution 10 · Fabiano Souza
  • 76'
    Subst · Substitution 9 · Fabiano Souza
  • 73'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Luís Semedo
  • 69'
    Subst · Substitution 6 · Jovane Cabral
  • 69'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Bruno Langa
  • 69'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Bruno Langa
  • 69'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Jovane Cabral
  • 68'
    Subst · Substitution 8 · Alan
  • 68'
    Subst · Substitution 7 · Landerson
  • 68'
    Subst · Substitution 6 · Landerson
  • 68'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Alan
  • 64'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Rodrigo Pinho
  • 64'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Rodrigo Pinho
  • 50'
    Card · Yellow Card · Fabiano Souza
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Mateja Stjepanović
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Afonso Assis
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Afonso Assis
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Mateja Stjepanović
  • HALF TIME · 1 – 2
  • 45'+1
    Goal · Normal Goal · Alan
  • 45'
    Goal · Missed Penalty · Alan
  • 40'
    Card · Yellow Card · Rodrigo Alonso
    misses next match
  • 36'
    Goal · Penalty · Ianis Stoica
  • 31'
    Card · Yellow Card · Max Scholze
  • 25'
    Card · Yellow Card · Rodrigo Pinho
  • 13'
    Goal · Penalty · Jovane Cabral
  • 12'
    Card · Yellow Card · Caio Secco
12 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 12 BOOKMAKERS
MOREIRENSE WIN
3.05
32.8% implied
↑ best 3.18
DRAW
3.02
33.1% implied
↑ best 3.15
ESTRELA WIN
2.49
40.2% implied
↑ best 2.57

Market favors Estrela. AI projects MOREIRENSE 92% · value bet Over 2.5.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS MOREIRENSE 92% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 3.10 2.88 2.50 +59.7%
1xBet 3.14 3.10 2.57 +60.2%
Bet365 3.10 3.10 2.45 +59.7%
Betano 3.15 2.95 2.55 +60.3%
Betfair 3.10 3.00 2.50 +59.7%
BetVictor 2.90 3.00 2.40 +57.5%
Dafabet 3.10 3.15 2.50 +59.7%
Marathonbet 3.02 2.98 2.47 +58.9%
Pinnacle 3.18 3.05 2.56 +60.6%
SBO 2.96 3.02 2.37 +58.2%
Unibet 2.80 3.15 2.50 +56.3%
William Hill 3.00 2.90 2.45 +58.7%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.41 U 2.75
2.5 O 2.29 U 1.61
3.5 O 4.18 U 1.20
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.89 9 bks
NO
1.82 9 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 1.52
Away -0.5 1.39
Away -0.75 1.24
Away -1 1.15
Away -1.25 1.12
Away -1.5 1.08
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.