GOALSENSE
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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 1–0 · FC PORTO 96%
CONF 87 FULL ANALYSIS →
Primeira Liga · REGULAR SEASON - 32 · SAT, 02 MAY · 19:30 LOCAL
FC PORTO
1ST · 85 PTS · LAST 5:
L W W L W
FT
1 – 0
FULL TIME HT · 1-0
ALVERCA
D W L W W
· 11TH · 39 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 40' Jan Bednarek
GOALS
Jan Bednarek
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Jan Bednarek
FC Porto · 90 mins
⚽ 1 goal · 65% pass acc · 1 shots on
RATING
8.5
PREDICTIONS
▶ MATCH HIGHLIGHTS

Goals, key moments & recap 2 CLIPS

powered by Highlightly
Primeira Liga: FC Porto vs Alverca
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Primeira Liga: FC Porto vs Alverca
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

0.62
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
0.97
57%
BALL POSSESSION %
43%
12
TOTAL SHOTS
10
3
SHOTS ON TARGET
5
88%
PASS ACCURACY %
80%
5
CORNERS
4
KEY EVENTS 16 events
  1. 38'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Jakub Kiwior
    FC
  2. 38'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Chiquinho
    ALV
  3. 40'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Jan Bednarek · assist Gabri Veiga
    FC
  4. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Jakub Kiwior · assist A. Varela
    FC
  5. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Z. Sanusi · assist Martim Fernandes
    FC
  6. 52'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Kaiky Naves
    ALV
  7. 63'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Oskar Pietuszewski · assist Borja Sainz
    FC
  8. 74'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Sandro Lima
    ALV
  9. 74'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Gabri Veiga · assist Seko Fofana
    FC
  10. 77'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Figueiredo
    ALV
  11. 78'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Figueiredo · assist Davy Gui
    ALV
  12. 78'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Chiquinho · assist Marko Milovanović
    ALV
  13. 86'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Pepê · assist Rodrigo Mora
    FC
  14. 89'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Kaiky Naves · assist Diogo Spencer
    ALV
  15. 89'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Sandro Lima · assist Cédric Nuozzi
    ALV
  16. 89'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Rhaldney · assist Zakaria Kassary
    ALV
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
FC PORTO AVG 7.5
ALVERCA AVG 7.1
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
0.6
xG
1.0
12.0
TOTAL SHOTS
10.0
3.0
ON TARGET
5.0
2.0
OFF TARGET
4.0
7.0
BLOCKED
1.0
POSSESSION
57.0%
POSSESSION %
43.0%
435.0
PASSES
326.0
88.0%
PASS ACCURACY
80.0%
SET PIECES
5.0
CORNERS
4.0
1.0
OFFSIDES
0.0
DISCIPLINE
21.0
FOULS
19.0
1.0
YELLOW CARDS
4.0
4.0
GK SAVES
2.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
FC PORTO 3 shots
Jan Bednarek
1/1
Alberto Costa
0/1
Pablo Rosario
0/1
ALVERCA 1 shots
Chiquinho
1/1
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 0.62 – 0.97
0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 1.0 0.0 HT 40' H 0.62 A 0.97 KO 30' 60' FT

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 44%
56% A
7
EVENTS LOGGED
9
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 4-3-3 vs 3-4-3
4-3-3
3-4-3
99
DIOGO COS
12
Z. SANUSI
 6.9
4
JAKUB KIW
 8.5
5
JAN BEDNA
 7.7
20
ALBERTO C
10
GABRI VEI
 7.6
13
PABLO ROS
8
VICTOR FR
77
OSKAR PIE
27
DENIZ GüL
11
PEPê
31
MATHEUS M
33
BASTIEN M
 7.2
5
SERGI GóM
4
KAIKY NAV
 7.2
12
ISAAC JAM
 7.2
18
LINCOLN
26
RHALDNEY
2
NABIL TOU
 7.0
10
CHIQUINHO
91
SANDRO LI
20
FIGUEIRED
SUBSTITUTES · FC PORTO
7
William Gome...
F
29
T. Moffi
F
22
A. Varela
M
86
Rodrigo Mora
M
42
Seko Fofana
M
3
Thiago Silva
D
52
Martim Ferna...
D
14
Cláudio Ramo...
G
17
Borja Sainz
F
COACH: Francesco Farioli
SUBSTITUTES · ALVERCA
11
Cédric Nuozz...
F
25
Stéphane Dia...
F
17
Vasco Moreir...
M
35
Zakaria Kass...
M
6
Davy Gui
M
14
Steven Basey...
D
82
Diogo Spence...
D
1
Mateus Olive...
G
9
Marko Milova...
F
COACH: Custodio
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
FC · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

ALV · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
D. Silva
—
FC MANAGER
Francesco Farioli
head coach
ALV MANAGER
Custodio
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
1
FC WINS
0
DRAWS
0
ALV WINS
100%
3 – 0
TOTAL GOALS · 1 MEETINGS
3.00
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 1 / 1
22 Dec 2025
Alverca
0 – 3
FC Porto
W
FC PORTO LAST 5 OVERALL
L W W L W
ALVERCA LAST 5 OVERALL
D W L W W
MATCH IMPACT Final 1–0 · result locked
FC PORTO #1
Won · already at 85 pts
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
ALVERCA #11
Lost · already at 39 pts
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 FC Porto 33 27 4 2 +47 85
L W W W W
2 Sporting CP 33 24 7 2 +62 79
W W D D L
3 Benfica 33 22 11 0 +47 77
D D W W W
4 SC Braga 33 16 10 7 +28 58
D D L W D
5 Famalicao 33 14 11 8 +12 53
D D W D D
6 GIL Vicente 33 13 11 9 +12 50
L D W L D
7 Moreirense 33 12 6 15 -12 42
L W L W D
8 Guimaraes 33 12 6 15 -10 42
L L W W D
9 Estoril 33 10 9 14 -1 39
D D L L L
10 Arouca 33 11 6 16 -19 39
W D L W L
11 Alverca 33 10 9 14 -16 39
D L W L W
12 Santa Clara 33 9 9 15 -8 36
W D W D L
13 Rio Ave 33 8 11 14 -22 35
L D L D W
14 Nacional 33 8 7 18 -10 31
L L W W L
15 Estrela 33 6 11 16 -18 29
D L L L L
16 Casa Pia 33 6 11 16 -26 29
W L L L D
17 Tondela 33 6 10 17 -26 28
W W D L L
18 AVS 33 3 11 19 -40 20
W W D D D
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 89'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Rhaldney
  • 89'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Sandro Lima
  • 89'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Kaiky Naves
  • 86'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Pepê
  • 78'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Chiquinho
  • 78'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Figueiredo
  • 77'
    Card · Yellow Card · Figueiredo
    Foul
  • 74'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Gabri Veiga
  • 74'
    Card · Yellow Card · Sandro Lima
    Unsportsmanlike conduct
  • 63'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Oskar Pietuszewski
  • 52'
    Card · Yellow Card · Kaiky Naves
    Foul
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Z. Sanusi
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Jakub Kiwior
  • HALF TIME · 1 – 0
  • 40'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Jan Bednarek
  • 38'
    Card · Yellow Card · Chiquinho
  • 38'
    Card · Yellow Card · Jakub Kiwior
    Foul
12 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 12 BOOKMAKERS
FC PORTO WIN
1.16
86.2% implied
↑ best 1.19
DRAW
7.45
13.4% implied
↑ best 8.50
ALVERCA WIN
17.10
5.8% implied
↑ best 22.00

Market favors FC Porto. AI projects FC PORTO 96%.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS FC PORTO 96% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 1.17 6.60 15.50 +10.5%
1xBet 1.17 8.15 18.00 +10.5%
Bet365 1.17 7.00 19.00 +10.5%
Betano 1.19 7.20 22.00 +12.0%
Betfair 1.13 8.50 18.00 +7.5%
BetVictor 1.13 7.00 15.00 +7.5%
Dafabet 1.17 7.80 17.00 +10.5%
Marathonbet 1.16 7.00 15.75 +9.8%
Pinnacle 1.16 8.41 17.55 +9.8%
SBO 1.14 7.24 15.40 +8.3%
Unibet 1.15 7.50 17.00 +9.0%
William Hill 1.15 7.00 15.00 +9.0%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.15 U 4.95
2.5 O 1.52 U 2.40
3.5 O 2.32 U 1.58
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
2.41 9 bks
NO
1.51 9 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 7.40
Away -0.5 4.25
Away -0.75 4.21
Away -1 3.88
Away -1.25 2.96
Away -1.5 2.45
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.