GOALSENSE
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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 2–0 · REAL MADRID 67% · Value: Over 2.5 62%
CONF 61 FULL ANALYSIS →
La Liga · REGULAR SEASON - 38 · SAT, 23 MAY · 19:00 LOCAL
REAL MADRID
2ND · 86 PTS · LAST 5:
W W L W D
FT
4 – 2
FULL TIME HT · 2-1
ATHLETIC CLUB
D L L W L
· 12TH · 45 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 12' Gonzalo García ⚽ 41' Jude Bellingham ⚽ 51' Kylian Mbappé ⚽ 88' Brahim Díaz
GOALS
⚽ 45+1' Gorka Guruzeta ⚽ 90+1' Urko Izeta
Kylian Mbappé
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Kylian Mbappé
Real Madrid · 88 mins
⚽ 1 goal · 31% pass acc · 2 shots on
RATING
7.9
PREDICTIONS
▶ MATCH HIGHLIGHTS

Goals, key moments & recap 2 CLIPS

powered by Highlightly
HIGHLIGHTS | Real Madrid 4-2 Athletic Club | LaLiga
Open in Youtube ↗
La Liga: Real Madrid vs Athletic Club
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

91%
BALL POSSESSION %
83%
13
TOTAL SHOTS
8
8
SHOTS ON TARGET
2
675%
PASS ACCURACY %
176%
2
CORNERS
1
KEY EVENTS 19 events
  1. 3'
    Card · Foul
    Thiago Pitarch
    REA
  2. 12'
    Goal · 1-0
    Gonzalo García · assist Daniel Carvajal 
    REA
  3. 20'
    Card · Foul
    Jude Bellingham
    REA
  4. 41'
    Goal · 2-0
    Jude Bellingham · assist Thiago Pitarch
    REA
  5. 45'+1
    Goal · 2-1
    Gorka Guruzeta · assist Iñaki Williams
    ATH
  6. 46'
    Subst
    Andoni Gorosabel · assist Yeray Álvarez
    ATH
  7. 51'
    Goal · 3-1
    Kylian Mbappé · assist Álvaro Carreras 
    REA
  8. 60'
    Subst
    Iñigo Lekue · assist Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta
    ATH
  9. 60'
    Subst
    Alejandro Rego · assist Unai Gómez
    ATH
  10. 70'
    Subst
    Dean Huijsen · assist David Alaba
    REA
  11. 74'
    Subst
    Arda Güler · assist Gonzalo García
    REA
  12. 74'
    Subst
    Dani Ceballos · assist Jude Bellingham
    REA
  13. 74'
    Subst
    Brahim Díaz · assist Franco Mastantuono
    REA
  14. 74'
    Subst
    Urko Izeta · assist Gorka Guruzeta
    ATH
  15. 84'
    Subst
    Manuel Serrano Salazar · assist Daniel Carvajal 
    REA
  16. 85'
    Subst
    Mikel Vesga · assist Mikel Jauregizar
    ATH
  17. 88'
    Goal · 4-1
    Brahim Díaz · assist Thiago Pitarch
    REA
  18. 89'
    Var
    Brahim Díaz
    REA
  19. 90'+1
    Goal · 4-2
    Urko Izeta · assist Iñaki Williams
    ATH
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
REAL MADRID AVG 7.5
ATHLETIC CLUB AVG 6.5
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
13.0
TOTAL SHOTS
8.0
8.0
ON TARGET
2.0
5.0
OFF TARGET
5.0
0.0
BLOCKED
1.0
POSSESSION
91.0%
POSSESSION %
83.0%
745.0
PASSES
254.0
675.0%
PASS ACCURACY
176.0%
SET PIECES
2.0
CORNERS
1.0
2.0
OFFSIDES
7.0
DISCIPLINE
6.0
FOULS
20.0
2.0
YELLOW CARDS
0.0
0.0
GK SAVES
4.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
REAL MADRID 10 shots
Kylian Mbappé
2/5
Jude Bellingham
2/2
Thiago Pitarch
1/2
Gonzalo García
1/1
ATHLETIC CLUB 5 shots
Gorka Guruzeta
1/4
Robert Navarro
0/1
⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 63%
37% A
12
EVENTS LOGGED
7
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 4-4-2 vs 4-2-3-1
4-4-2
4-2-3-1
1
T. COURTO
 7.3
18
ÁLVARO CA
4
D. ALABA
17
RAúL ASEN
2
DANIEL CA
 7.3
45
THIAGO PI
8
FEDERICO
 7.6
5
JUDE BELL
30
FRANCO MA
 7.9
10
KYLIAN MB
 7.5
16
GONZALO G
27
ALEX PADI
19
ADAMA BOI
4
AITOR PAR
5
YERAY ÁLV
3
DANIEL VI
18
MIKEL JAU
16
IñIGO RUI
 6.3
23
ROBERT NA
20
UNAI GóME
9
IñAKI WIL
 7.2
11
GORKA GUR
SUBSTITUTES · REAL MADRID
22
Antonio Rüdi...
D
20
Fran García
D
51
Manuel Serra...
D
14
Aurélien Tch...
M
13
Andriy Lunin
G
50
Álvaro Gonzá...
G
15
Arda Güler
M
19
Dani Ceballo...
M
21
Brahim Díaz
M
24
Dean Huijsen
D
6
Eduardo Cama...
M
COACH: Alvaro Arbeloa
SUBSTITUTES · ATHLETIC CLUB
40
Elijah Gift
F
24
Beñat Prados
M
6
Mikel Vesga
M
22
Nico Serrano
F
14
Aymeric Lapo...
D
12
Jesús Areso
D
1
Unai Simón
G
25
Urko Izeta
F
30
Alejandro Re...
M
15
Íñigo Lekue
D
2
Gorosabel
D
21
Maroan Sanna...
F
COACH: Ernesto Valverde
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
REA · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

ATH · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
Juan Martinez Munuera, Spain
—
REA MANAGER
Alvaro Arbeloa
head coach
ATH MANAGER
Ernesto Valverde
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
7
REA WINS
1
DRAWS
2
ATH WINS
70%
10%
20%
18 – 6
TOTAL GOALS · 10 MEETINGS
2.40
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 5 / 10
03 Dec 2025
Athletic Club
0 – 3
Real Madrid
W
20 Apr 2025
Real Madrid
1 – 0
Athletic Club
W
04 Dec 2024
Athletic Club
2 – 1
Real Madrid
L
31 Mar 2024
Real Madrid
2 – 0
Athletic Club
W
12 Aug 2023
Athletic Club
0 – 2
Real Madrid
W
REAL MADRID LAST 5 OVERALL
W W L W D
ATHLETIC CLUB LAST 5 OVERALL
D L L W L
MATCH IMPACT Final 4–2 · result locked
REAL MADRID #2
Won · already at 86 pts
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
ATHLETIC CLUB #12
Lost · already at 45 pts
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 Barcelona 38 31 1 6 +59 94
L W L W W
2 Real Madrid 38 27 5 6 +42 86
W W W L W
3 Villarreal 38 22 6 10 +26 72
W L L D W
4 Atletico Madrid 38 21 6 11 +18 69
L W W L W
5 Real Betis 38 15 15 8 +11 60
W L W D W
6 Celta Vigo 38 14 12 12 +5 54
W D L W W
7 Getafe 38 15 6 17 -6 51
W L W D L
8 Rayo Vallecano 38 12 14 12 -3 50
W W D D W
9 Valencia 38 13 10 15 -9 49
W W D W L
10 Real Sociedad 38 11 13 14 -2 46
D L D D L
11 Espanyol 38 12 10 16 -12 46
D W W L L
12 Athletic Club 38 13 6 19 -15 45
L D L L W
13 Sevilla 38 12 7 19 -14 43
L L W W W
14 Alaves 38 11 10 17 -12 43
L W W D L
15 Elche 38 10 13 15 -8 43
D W L D L
16 Levante 38 11 9 18 -14 42
L W W W L
17 Osasuna 38 11 9 18 -6 42
L L L L L
18 Mallorca 38 11 9 18 -10 42
W L L D W
19 Girona 38 9 14 15 -16 41
D L D D L
20 Oviedo 38 6 11 21 -34 29
L L L D L
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 90'+1
    Goal · 4-2 · Urko Izeta
    6th Goal
  • 89'
    Var · Brahim Díaz
    Goal disallowed
  • 88'
    Goal · 4-1 · Brahim Díaz
    5th Goal
  • 85'
    Subst · Mikel Vesga
    10th Substitution
  • 84'
    Subst · Manuel Serrano Salazar
    9th Substitution
  • 74'
    Subst · Urko Izeta
    8th Substitution
  • 74'
    Subst · Brahim Díaz
    6th Substitution
  • 74'
    Subst · Dani Ceballos
    5th Substitution
  • 74'
    Subst · Arda Güler
    7th Substitution
  • 70'
    Subst · Dean Huijsen
    4th Substitution
  • 60'
    Subst · Alejandro Rego
    3rd Substitution
  • 60'
    Subst · Iñigo Lekue
    2nd Substitution
  • 51'
    Goal · 3-1 · Kylian Mbappé
    4th Goal
  • 46'
    Subst · Andoni Gorosabel
    1st Substitution
  • HALF TIME · 2 – 1
  • 45'+1
    Goal · 2-1 · Gorka Guruzeta
    3rd Goal
  • 41'
    Goal · 2-0 · Jude Bellingham
    2nd Goal
  • 20'
    Card · Foul · Jude Bellingham
    2nd Yellowcard
  • 12'
    Goal · 1-0 · Gonzalo García
    1st Goal
  • 3'
    Card · Foul · Thiago Pitarch
    1st Yellowcard
14 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 14 BOOKMAKERS
REAL MADRID WIN
1.51
66.2% implied
↑ best 1.55
DRAW
4.65
21.5% implied
↑ best 4.97
ATHLETIC CLUB WIN
5.66
17.7% implied
↑ best 6.00

Market favors Real Madrid. AI projects REAL MADRID 67% · value bet Over 2.5.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS REAL MADRID 67% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 1.52 4.50 5.25 +1.2%
1xBet 1.54 4.97 5.99 +2.1%
888Sport 1.50 4.50 5.50 +0.3%
Bet365 1.50 4.50 5.50 +0.3%
Betano 1.55 4.80 5.70 +2.5%
Betfair 1.47 4.60 5.50 -1.0%
BetVictor 1.50 4.60 5.75 +0.3%
Dafabet 1.52 4.80 5.80 +1.2%
Marathonbet 1.53 4.85 5.80 +1.6%
Pinnacle 1.53 4.81 5.82 +1.6%
SBO 1.48 4.48 5.61 -0.6%
Superbet 1.54 4.65 5.55 +2.1%
Unibet 1.49 4.60 6.00 -0.1%
William Hill 1.50 4.50 5.50 +0.3%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.13 U 5.45
2.5 O 1.47 U 2.60
3.5 O 2.22 U 1.66
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.59 11 bks
NO
2.27 11 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 3.15
Away -0.5 2.54
Away -0.75 2.31
Away -1 2.02
Away -1.25 1.78
Away -1.5 1.62
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.