GOALSENSE
SIGN IN
La Liga · REGULAR SEASON - 34 · SAT, 02 MAY · 16:30 LOCAL
← Match Page
ALAVES
FT
2 – 4
FULL TIME
ATHLETIC CLUB
GOALS
⚽ 46' Robert Navarro ⚽ 74' Oihan Sancet ⚽ 83' Nico Williams ⚽ 87' Nico Williams
CLAUDE AI · BLENDED FROM 4 MODELS
FINAL · VERIFIED
CONF 48/100 MED
🔮 PREDICTED FULL-TIME SCORE
ALA
1 – 1
ATH
most likely scoreline · 13.8% probability
AI PICKS ALAVES TO WIN 38%
FT 2 – 4
→
🤖 AI PROJECTED FT 1 – 1
🤖 AI BREAKDOWN

HOW AI SEES THE MATCH

FINAL · VERIFIED
ALA WIN 38%
DRAW 29%
ATH WIN 33%
h + d + a = 100% · stacked share
💰 AI BETTING TIP
DOUBLE CHANCE — 1X

Tight 1X2 — single-side too risky. Double chance covers 67% of outcomes with smaller payout.

CONF 67% avoid: 1X2 single 4 models
🤖 AI ANALYSIS

Evenly matched midtable teams with conflicting signals; draw is the most defensive estimate.

🤖 AI REASONING why AI picked this
WHY ALAVES FAVORED
38%
Athletic Club slight quality edge (10th vs 17th) but Alaves home form resilient (LWDDD)
+25.0%
H2H volatile (2-4 loss today vs 1-0 win in Sept) — context-dependent; Athletic away form weak (WLLLD)
+20.0%
Both xG-starved by league metrics; low-scoring pattern expected (SportMonks 55.6% Under 2.5)
+15.0%
WHY ATHLETIC CLUB CHALLENGED
33%
Athletic Club slight quality edge (10th vs 17th) but Alaves home form resilient (LWDDD)
+25.0%
H2H volatile (2-4 loss today vs 1-0 win in Sept) — context-dependent; Athletic away form weak (WLLLD)
+20.0%
Both xG-starved by league metrics; low-scoring pattern expected (SportMonks 55.6% Under 2.5)
+15.0%
🤖 CONTEXT · NEUTRAL FACTORS
  • Athletic Club slight quality edge (10th vs 17th) but Alaves home form resilient (LWDDD)
  • H2H volatile (2-4 loss today vs 1-0 win in Sept) — context-dependent; Athletic away form weak (WLLLD)
  • Both xG-starved by league metrics; low-scoring pattern expected (SportMonks 55.6% Under 2.5)
🤖 AI LIVE TIMELINE

PROBABILITY TIMELINE

How AI re-projects after each event
H DRAW A
100% 50% 0% KO 15' 30' HT 60' 75' FT ⚽ 46' ROBERT NAV ⚽ 74' OIHAN SANC ⚽ 83' NICO WILLI ⚽ 87' NICO WILLI
Probabilities re-blended at each event · 4 events marked → Derived from goal events + remaining time
🤖 AI SCORE MATRIX

SCORELINE PROBABILITY

All possible scorelines · Poisson from xG
0% 13.8%+
0
1
2
3
4
5
6+
0
13.5
13.3
6.5
2.1
0.5
0.1
·
1
13.8
13.5
6.6
2.2
0.5
0.1
·
2
7.0
6.9
3.4
1.1
0.3
·
·
3
2.4
2.4
1.2
0.4
0.1
·
·
4
0.6
0.6
0.3
0.1
·
·
·
5
0.1
0.1
0.1
·
·
·
·
6+
·
·
·
·
·
·
·
MOST LIKELY · TOP 5
1 — 0 13.8%
0 — 0 13.5%
1 — 1 13.5%
0 — 1 13.3%
2 — 0 7.0%
Top 5 = 61.2% · rest 38.8%
🤖 AI VALUE FINDER

VALUE BETS

Where AI sees an edge vs bookmaker odds
8 markets · pre-match avg odds
MARKETODDSAI PROBFAIREDGE
HOME to Win
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
2.78
38.0%
2.63
+5.5%
HOME or Draw (1X)
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.50
67.0%
1.49
+0.4%
—
Over 2.5 Goals
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
2.09
46.0%
2.17
-3.8%
—
Draw
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
3.29
29.0%
3.45
-4.7%
—
HOME or AWAY (12)
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.32
71.0%
1.41
-6.2%
—
Both Teams Score — YES
9 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.79
51.0%
1.96
-8.7%
—
Draw or AWAY (X2)
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.44
62.0%
1.61
-10.8%
—
AWAY to Win
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
2.57
33.0%
3.03
-15.1%
—
⚠ 18+ only. Odds change frequently. AI predictions are not guarantees. Bet responsibly.