GOALSENSE
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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 1–1 · BAYER LEVERKUSEN 48% · Value: BTTS Yes 68%
CONF 61 FULL ANALYSIS →
Bundesliga · REGULAR SEASON - 34 · SAT, 16 MAY · 13:30 LOCAL
BAYER LEVERKUSEN
6TH · 59 PTS · LAST 5:
L W W L L
FT
1 – 1
FULL TIME HT · 0-0
HAMBURGER SV
W W L L L
· 13TH · 38 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 25' Patrik Schick (P) ⚽ 78' Nicolai Remberg (OG)
GOALS
⚽ 61' Fábio Vieira
Sander Tangvik
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Sander Tangvik
Hamburger SV · 94 mins
· 33% pass acc
RATING
8.2
PREDICTIONS
▶ MATCH HIGHLIGHTS

Goals, key moments & recap 2 CLIPS

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Bundesliga: Bayer Leverkusen vs Hamburger SV
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Bundesliga: Bayer Leverkusen vs Hamburger SV
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

2.75
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
1.33
60%
BALL POSSESSION %
40%
22
TOTAL SHOTS
18
6
SHOTS ON TARGET
5
90%
PASS ACCURACY %
82%
6
CORNERS
3
KEY EVENTS 14 events
  1. 24'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Jordan Torunarigha
    HAM
  2. 25'
    Goal · Missed Penalty
    Patrik Schick · assist Patrik Schick
    BAY
  3. 61'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Fábio Vieira · assist Nicolás Capaldo
    HAM
  4. 62'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Malik Tillman · assist Jonas Hofmann
    BAY
  5. 62'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Montrell Culbreath · assist Arthur
    BAY
  6. 62'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Robert Andrich · assist Eliesse Ben Seghir
    BAY
  7. 63'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Rayan Philippe · assist M. Muheim
    HAM
  8. 66'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Arthur
    BAY
  9. 77'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Otto Stange · assist Yussuf Poulsen
    HAM
  10. 77'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Fábio Vieira · assist Fabio Baldé
    HAM
  11. 77'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Warmed Omari · assist Shafiq Nandja
    HAM
  12. 78'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Nicolás Capaldo
    HAM
  13. 78'
    Goal · Own Goal
    Nicolai Remberg
    BAY
  14. 89'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Jordan Torunarigha · assist William Mikelbrencis
    HAM
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
BAYER LEVERKUSEN AVG 7.5
HAMBURGER SV AVG 7.5
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
2.8
xG
1.3
22.0
TOTAL SHOTS
18.0
6.0
ON TARGET
5.0
12.0
OFF TARGET
8.0
4.0
BLOCKED
5.0
POSSESSION
60.0%
POSSESSION %
40.0%
563.0
PASSES
396.0
90.0%
PASS ACCURACY
82.0%
SET PIECES
6.0
CORNERS
3.0
3.0
OFFSIDES
0.0
DISCIPLINE
7.0
FOULS
11.0
1.0
YELLOW CARDS
2.0
4.0
GK SAVES
5.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
BAYER LEVERKUSEN 8 shots
Jarell Quansah
0/3
Aleix García
0/2
E. Palacios
0/2
Eliesse Ben Seghir
1/1
HAMBURGER SV 6 shots
Fábio Vieira
2/3
Albert Sambi Lokonga
1/2
L. Vušković
0/1
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 2.75 – 1.33
2.2 1.7 1.1 0.6 2.8 0.0 HT 25' 78' 61' H 2.75 A 1.33 KO 30' 60' FT

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 43%
57% A
6
EVENTS LOGGED
8
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 3-4-2-1 vs 3-4-2-1
3-4-2-1
3-4-2-1
1
M. FLEKKE
12
EDMOND TA
8
ROBERT AN
 7.2
4
JARELL QU
20
ÁLEX GRIM
 7.6
25
E. PALACI
 7.9
24
ALEIX GAR
 7.2
42
MONTRELL
10
MALIK TIL
30
I. MAZA
14
PATRIK SC
 8.2
12
SANDER TA
25
JORDAN TO
 7.2
44
L. VUšKOV
 7.2
17
WARMED OM
23
ALBERT GR
 7.2
6
ALBERT SA
21
NICOLAI R
24
NICOLáS C
14
RAYAN PHI
 7.9
20
FáBIO VIE
49
OTTO STAN
SUBSTITUTES · BAYER LEVERKUSEN
7
Jonas Hofman...
M
19
E. Poku
F
6
E. Fernández
M
21
Lucas Vázque...
D
13
Arthur
D
15
T. Oermann
D
5
Loïc Badé
D
28
J. Blaswich
G
17
Eliesse Ben...
F
COACH: Kasper Hjulmand
SUBSTITUTES · HAMBURGER SV
45
Fabio Baldé
F
2
William Mike...
D
28
M. Muheim
D
18
Bakery Jatta
M
43
Shafiq Nandj...
D
8
Daniel Elfad...
M
16
Giorgi Gocho...
D
1
Daniel Heuer...
G
15
Yussuf Pouls...
F
COACH: Merlin Polzin
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
BAY · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

HAM · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
Tobias Stieler, Germany
—
BAY MANAGER
Kasper Hjulmand
head coach
HAM MANAGER
Merlin Polzin
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
6
BAY WINS
1
DRAWS
3
HAM WINS
60%
10%
30%
15 – 6
TOTAL GOALS · 10 MEETINGS
2.10
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 5 / 10
04 Mar 2026
Hamburger SV
0 – 1
Bayer Leverkusen
W
17 Feb 2018
Hamburger SV
1 – 2
Bayer Leverkusen
W
24 Sep 2017
Bayer Leverkusen
3 – 0
Hamburger SV
W
03 Feb 2017
Hamburger SV
1 – 0
Bayer Leverkusen
L
10 Sep 2016
Bayer Leverkusen
3 – 1
Hamburger SV
W
BAYER LEVERKUSEN LAST 5 OVERALL
L W W L L
HAMBURGER SV LAST 5 OVERALL
W W L L L
MATCH IMPACT Final 1–1 · result locked
BAYER LEVERKUSEN #6
Lost · already at 59 pts
UEFA Europa League
HAMBURGER SV #13
Lost · already at 38 pts
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 Bayern München 34 28 5 1 +86 89
W W D W W
2 Borussia Dortmund 34 22 7 5 +36 73
W W L W L
3 RB Leipzig 34 20 5 9 +19 65
L W L W W
4 VfB Stuttgart 34 18 8 8 +22 62
D W D D L
5 1899 Hoffenheim 34 18 7 9 +13 61
L W D W W
6 Bayer Leverkusen 34 17 8 9 +21 59
D L W W L
7 SC Freiburg 34 13 8 13 -6 47
W L D L W
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 34 11 11 12 -4 44
D L L D L
9 FC Augsburg 34 12 7 15 -16 43
L W W D W
10 FSV Mainz 05 34 10 10 14 -9 40
W L W L D
11 Union Berlin 34 10 9 15 -14 39
W W D L L
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach 34 9 11 14 -11 38
W L W D D
13 Hamburger SV 34 9 11 14 -14 38
D W W L L
14 1. FC Köln 34 7 11 16 -14 32
L L D L D
15 Werder Bremen 34 8 8 18 -23 32
L L L D W
16 VfL Wolfsburg 34 7 8 19 -24 29
L D W L D
17 1. FC Heidenheim 34 6 8 20 -31 26
L W D W L
18 FC St. Pauli 34 6 8 20 -31 26
L L L L D
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 89'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Jordan Torunarigha
  • 78'
    Goal · Own Goal · Nicolai Remberg
  • 78'
    Card · Yellow Card · Nicolás Capaldo
  • 77'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Warmed Omari
  • 77'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Fábio Vieira
  • 77'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Otto Stange
  • 66'
    Card · Yellow Card · Arthur
    Roughing
  • 63'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Rayan Philippe
  • 62'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Robert Andrich
  • 62'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Montrell Culbreath
  • 62'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Malik Tillman
  • 61'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Fábio Vieira
  • HALF TIME · 0 – 0
  • 25'
    Goal · Missed Penalty · Patrik Schick
  • 24'
    Card · Yellow Card · Jordan Torunarigha
    Roughing
13 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 13 BOOKMAKERS
BAYER LEVERKUSEN WIN
1.29
77.5% implied
↑ best 1.33
DRAW
6.17
16.2% implied
↑ best 6.60
HAMBURGER SV WIN
8.22
12.2% implied
↑ best 9.10

Market favors Bayer Leverkusen. AI projects BAYER LEVERKUSEN 48% · value bet BTTS Yes.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS BAYER LEVERKUSEN 48% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 1.30 6.40 7.00 +22.4%
1xBet 1.33 6.45 9.10 +22.5%
888Sport 1.29 5.75 8.00 +20.6%
Bet365 1.30 6.25 7.50 +22.0%
Betano 1.33 6.20 8.75 +21.9%
Betfair 1.25 6.00 8.50 +21.3%
BetVictor 1.29 6.00 8.50 +21.3%
Dafabet 1.31 6.60 8.20 +22.8%
Marathonbet 1.31 6.35 9.00 +22.3%
Pinnacle 1.31 6.54 8.31 +22.7%
SBO 1.25 5.61 7.05 +20.2%
Unibet 1.25 6.25 9.00 +22.0%
William Hill 1.29 5.80 8.00 +20.8%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.06 U 8.40
2.5 O 1.26 U 3.69
3.5 O 1.70 U 2.15
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.51 10 bks
NO
2.45 10 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 4.59
Away -0.5 3.58
Away -0.75 3.24
Away -1 2.93
Away -1.25 2.40
Away -1.5 2.10
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.