GOALSENSE
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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 3–1 · VFB STUTTGART 96% · Value: Over 2.5 95%
CONF 88 FULL ANALYSIS →
Bundesliga · REGULAR SEASON - 33 · SAT, 09 MAY · 13:30 LOCAL
VFB STUTTGART
4TH · 61 PTS · LAST 5:
D D L W L
FT
3 – 1
FULL TIME HT · 2-1
BAYER LEVERKUSEN
W W L L W
· 6TH · 58 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 5' Ermedin Demirović ⚽ 45+7' Maximilian Mittelstädt (P) ⚽ 58' Deniz Undav
GOALS
⚽ 1' Aleix García
J. Leweling
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
J. Leweling
VfB Stuttgart · 87 mins
🅰 1 assist · 25% pass acc
RATING
8.0
PREDICTIONS
▶ MATCH HIGHLIGHTS

Goals, key moments & recap 2 CLIPS

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Bundesliga: VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen
Open in Youtube ↗
Bundesliga: VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

2.78
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
0.56
49%
BALL POSSESSION %
51%
20
TOTAL SHOTS
6
9
SHOTS ON TARGET
5
85%
PASS ACCURACY %
81%
7
CORNERS
6
KEY EVENTS 17 events
  1. 1'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Aleix García · assist Christian Kofane
    BAY
  2. 5'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Ermedin Demirović · assist Nikolas Nartey
    VFB
  3. 45'+7
    Goal · Penalty
    Maximilian Mittelstädt
    VFB
  4. 47'
    Var · Goal Disallowed - offside
    Ermedin Demirović
    VFB
  5. 58'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Deniz Undav · assist J. Leweling
    VFB
  6. 65'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Aleix García · assist Malik Tillman
    BAY
  7. 65'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Montrell Culbreath · assist Arthur
    BAY
  8. 68'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Deniz Undav · assist Tiago Tomás
    VFB
  9. 78'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Maximilian Mittelstädt · assist Luca Jaquez
    VFB
  10. 78'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Nikolas Nartey · assist Bilal El Khannouss
    VFB
  11. 78'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Christian Kofane · assist Ernest Poku
    BAY
  12. 80'
    Card · Yellow Card
    C. Führich
    VFB
  13. 86'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Jarell Quansah · assist Eliesse Ben Seghir
    BAY
  14. 87'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    C. Führich · assist L. Assignon
    VFB
  15. 87'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    J. Leweling · assist J. Vagnoman
    VFB
  16. 90'+7
    Card · Yellow Card
    Exequiel Palacios
    BAY
  17. 90'+7
    Card · Yellow Card
    Tiago Tomás
    VFB
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
VFB STUTTGART AVG 7.8
BAYER LEVERKUSEN AVG 7.1
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
2.8
xG
0.6
20.0
TOTAL SHOTS
6.0
9.0
ON TARGET
5.0
5.0
OFF TARGET
1.0
6.0
BLOCKED
0.0
POSSESSION
49.0%
POSSESSION %
51.0%
377.0
PASSES
397.0
85.0%
PASS ACCURACY
81.0%
SET PIECES
7.0
CORNERS
6.0
3.0
OFFSIDES
0.0
DISCIPLINE
13.0
FOULS
8.0
1.0
YELLOW CARDS
0.0
4.0
GK SAVES
5.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
VFB STUTTGART 9 shots
Ermedin Demirović
3/6
Maximilian Mittelstädt
1/2
Angelo Stiller
1/1
BAYER LEVERKUSEN 3 shots
Aleix García
1/1
Christian Kofane
0/1
Malik Tillman
1/1
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 2.78 – 0.56
2.2 1.7 1.1 0.6 2.8 0.0 HT 5' 45' 58' 1' H 2.78 A 0.56 KO 30' 60' FT

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 65%
35% A
11
EVENTS LOGGED
6
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 4-2-3-1 vs 3-4-2-1
4-2-3-1
3-4-2-1
33
ALEXANDER
 7.7
7
MAXIMILIA
24
JEFF CHAB
3
RAMON HEN
 8.0
18
J. LEWELI
 7.9
6
ANGELO ST
30
JOSé MARí
10
C. FüHRIC
26
DENIZ UND
 7.6
28
NIKOLAS N
 7.9
9
ERMEDIN D
1
M. FLEKKE
12
EDMOND TA
8
R. ANDRIC
4
JARELL QU
 6.9
20
ÁLEX GRIM
 6.9
25
EXEQUIEL
 7.6
24
ALEIX GAR
42
MONTRELL
30
IBRAHIM M
14
PATRIK SC
 7.2
35
CHRISTIAN
SUBSTITUTES · VFB STUTTGART
27
Badredine Bo...
F
11
Bilal El Kha...
M
23
Dan Zagadou
D
14
Luca Jaquez
D
15
P. Stenzel
D
4
J. Vagnoman
D
22
L. Assignon
D
1
Fabian Bredl...
G
8
Tiago Tomás
F
COACH: Sebastian Hoeness
SUBSTITUTES · BAYER LEVERKUSEN
17
Eliesse Ben...
F
19
Ernest Poku
F
10
Malik Tillma...
M
13
Arthur
D
6
E. Fernández
M
21
Lucas Vázque...
D
5
Loïc Badé
D
28
Janis Blaswi...
G
7
Jonas Hofman...
M
COACH: Kasper Hjulmand
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
VFB · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

BAY · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
Robert Schröder, Germany
—
VFB MANAGER
Sebastian Hoeness
head coach
BAY MANAGER
Kasper Hjulmand
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
1
VFB WINS
5
DRAWS
4
BAY WINS
10%
50%
40%
17 – 20
TOTAL GOALS · 10 MEETINGS
3.70
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 5 / 10
10 Jan 2026
Bayer Leverkusen
1 – 4
VfB Stuttgart
W
16 Mar 2025
VfB Stuttgart
3 – 4
Bayer Leverkusen
L
01 Nov 2024
Bayer Leverkusen
0 – 0
VfB Stuttgart
D
27 Apr 2024
Bayer Leverkusen
2 – 2
VfB Stuttgart
D
06 Feb 2024
Bayer Leverkusen
3 – 2
VfB Stuttgart
L
VFB STUTTGART LAST 5 OVERALL
D D L W L
BAYER LEVERKUSEN LAST 5 OVERALL
W W L L W
MATCH IMPACT Final 3–1 · result locked
VFB STUTTGART #4
Won · already at 61 pts
Champions League
BAYER LEVERKUSEN #6
Lost · already at 58 pts
UEFA Europa League
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 Bayern München 33 27 5 1 +82 86
W D W W W
2 Borussia Dortmund 33 21 7 5 +34 70
W L W L L
3 RB Leipzig 33 20 5 8 +22 65
W L W W W
4 VfB Stuttgart 33 18 7 8 +22 61
W D D L W
5 1899 Hoffenheim 33 18 7 8 +17 61
W D W W D
6 Bayer Leverkusen 33 17 7 9 +21 58
L W W L W
7 SC Freiburg 33 12 8 13 -9 44
L D L W W
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 33 11 10 12 -4 43
L L D L W
9 FC Augsburg 33 12 7 14 -12 43
W W D W D
10 FSV Mainz 05 33 9 10 14 -11 37
L W L D L
11 Hamburger SV 33 9 10 14 -14 37
W W L L L
12 Union Berlin 33 9 9 15 -18 36
W D L L L
13 Borussia Mönchengladbach 33 8 11 14 -15 35
L W D D L
14 1. FC Köln 33 7 11 15 -10 32
L D L D W
15 Werder Bremen 33 8 8 17 -21 32
L L D W L
16 VfL Wolfsburg 33 6 8 19 -26 26
L D D W L
17 1. FC Heidenheim 33 6 8 19 -29 26
W D W L W
18 FC St. Pauli 33 6 8 19 -29 26
L L L D L
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 90'+7
    Card · Yellow Card · Tiago Tomás
  • 90'+7
    Card · Yellow Card · Exequiel Palacios
  • 87'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · J. Leweling
  • 87'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · C. Führich
  • 86'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Jarell Quansah
  • 80'
    Card · Yellow Card · C. Führich
    Holding
  • 78'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Christian Kofane
  • 78'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Nikolas Nartey
  • 78'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Maximilian Mittelstädt
  • 68'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Deniz Undav
  • 65'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Montrell Culbreath
  • 65'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Aleix García
  • 58'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Deniz Undav
  • 47'
    Var · Goal Disallowed - offside · Ermedin Demirović
  • HALF TIME · 2 – 1
  • 45'+7
    Goal · Penalty · Maximilian Mittelstädt
  • 5'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Ermedin Demirović
  • 1'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Aleix García
13 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 13 BOOKMAKERS
VFB STUTTGART WIN
2.24
44.6% implied
↑ best 2.32
DRAW
3.98
25.1% implied
↑ best 4.16
BAYER LEVERKUSEN WIN
2.80
35.7% implied
↑ best 2.95

Market favors VfB Stuttgart. AI projects VFB STUTTGART 96% · value bet Over 2.5.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS VFB STUTTGART 96% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 2.20 4.00 2.75 +50.5%
1xBet 2.30 4.16 2.95 +52.5%
888Sport 2.20 3.80 2.75 +50.5%
Bet365 2.25 4.00 2.80 +51.6%
Betano 2.32 4.00 2.72 +52.9%
Betfair 2.20 3.90 2.75 +50.5%
BetVictor 2.20 4.10 2.70 +50.5%
Dafabet 2.20 4.10 2.95 +50.5%
Marathonbet 2.26 4.10 2.90 +51.8%
Pinnacle 2.32 4.03 2.86 +52.9%
SBO 2.24 3.89 2.66 +51.4%
Unibet 2.20 3.90 2.85 +50.5%
William Hill 2.20 3.80 2.80 +50.5%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.07 U 7.30
2.5 O 1.32 U 3.30
3.5 O 1.81 U 2.01
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.30 10 bks
NO
3.33 10 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 1.85
Away -0.5 1.66
Away -0.75 1.51
Away -1 1.35
Away -1.25 1.29
Away -1.5 1.24
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.