GOALSENSE
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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 2–0 · RB LEIPZIG 72% · Value: Over 2.5 62%
CONF 68 FULL ANALYSIS →
Bundesliga · REGULAR SEASON - 33 · SAT, 09 MAY · 13:30 LOCAL
RB LEIPZIG
3RD · 65 PTS · LAST 5:
L W W W W
FT
2 – 1
FULL TIME HT · 1-0
FC ST. PAULI
L L D L D
· 18TH · 26 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 45' Xaver Schlager ⚽ 54' —
GOALS
⚽ 86' Abdoulie Ceesay
Willi Orbán
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Willi Orbán
RB Leipzig · 91 mins
⚽ 1 goal · 141% pass acc · 1 shots on
RATING
9.0
PREDICTIONS
▶ MATCH HIGHLIGHTS

Goals, key moments & recap 1 CLIP

powered by Highlightly
Bundesliga: RB Leipzig vs FC St. Pauli
Open in Youtube ↗
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

129%
BALL POSSESSION %
47%
13
TOTAL SHOTS
7
5
SHOTS ON TARGET
3
648%
PASS ACCURACY %
213%
3
CORNERS
5
KEY EVENTS 14 events
  1. 19'
    Card · Foul
    Castello Lukeba
    RB
  2. 45'
    Goal · 1-0
    Xaver Schlager · assist Christoph Baumgartner
    RB
  3. 50'
    Card · Foul
    Christoph Baumgartner
    RB
  4. 54'
    Goal · 2-0
    RB
  5. 64'
    Subst
    Fin Stevens · assist Louis Oppie
    FC
  6. 64'
    Subst
    Hauke Wahl · assist Lars Ritzka
    FC
  7. 69'
    Subst
    Nicolas Seiwald · assist Assan Ouédraogo
    RB
  8. 69'
    Subst
    Max Finkgräfe · assist David Raum
    RB
  9. 72'
    Subst
    Abdoulie Ceesay · assist Andréas Hountondji
    FC
  10. 79'
    Subst
    Antonio Nusa · assist Brajan Gruda
    RB
  11. 86'
    Goal · 2-1
    Abdoulie Ceesay · assist Jackson Irvine
    FC
  12. 89'
    Subst
    Mathias Rasmussen · assist Eric Smith
    FC
  13. 89'
    Subst
    Danel Sinani · assist Connor Metcalfe
    FC
  14. 90'+1
    Subst
    Benjamin Henrichs · assist Ridle Baku
    RB
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
RB LEIPZIG AVG 7.7
FC ST. PAULI AVG 7.0
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
13.0
TOTAL SHOTS
7.0
5.0
ON TARGET
3.0
6.0
OFF TARGET
2.0
2.0
BLOCKED
2.0
POSSESSION
129.0%
POSSESSION %
47.0%
730.0
PASSES
299.0
648.0%
PASS ACCURACY
213.0%
SET PIECES
3.0
CORNERS
5.0
13.0
OFFSIDES
25.0
DISCIPLINE
5.0
FOULS
9.0
2.0
YELLOW CARDS
0.0
2.0
GK SAVES
3.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
RB LEIPZIG 2 shots
Willi Orbán
1/1
Xaver Schlager
1/1
FC ST. PAULI 1 shots
Abdoulie Ceesay
1/1
⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 57%
43% A
8
EVENTS LOGGED
6
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 4-3-3 vs 3-5-2
4-3-3
3-5-2
26
MAARTEN V
 7.3
22
DAVID RAU
 7.2
23
CASTELLO
 9.0
4
WILLI ORB
17
RIDLE BAK
14
CHRISTOPH
 7.9
24
XAVER SCH
20
ASSAN OUé
 7.2
49
YAN DIOMA
40
RôMULO
10
BRAJAN GR
 6.9
22
NIKOLA VA
21
LARS RITZ
8
ERIC SMIT
 6.9
15
TOMOYA AN
23
LOUIS OPP
 7.0
16
JOEL CHIM
 6.9
7
JACKSON I
24
CONNOR ME
11
ARKADIUSZ
19
MARTIJN K
27
ANDREAS H
SUBSTITUTES · RB LEIPZIG
9
Johan Bakayo...
F
7
Antonio Nusa
M
13
Nicolas Seiw...
M
39
Benjamin Hen...
D
35
Max Finkgräf...
D
16
Lukas Kloste...
D
5
El Chadaille...
D
1
Péter Gulács...
G
11
Conrad Harde...
F
COACH: Ole Werner
SUBSTITUTES · FC ST. PAULI
9
Abdoulie Cee...
F
18
Taichi Hara
F
20
Mathias Rasm...
M
14
Fin Stevens
D
5
Hauke Wahl
D
1
Ben Voll
G
10
Danel Sinani
F
COACH: Alexander Blessin
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
RB · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

FC · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
Benjamin Brand, Germany
—
RB MANAGER
Ole Werner
head coach
FC MANAGER
Alexander Blessin
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
3
RB WINS
2
DRAWS
3
FC WINS
37.5%
25%
37.5%
11 – 7
TOTAL GOALS · 8 MEETINGS
2.25
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 4 / 8
27 Jan 2026
FC St. Pauli
1 – 1
RB Leipzig
D
09 Feb 2025
RB Leipzig
2 – 0
FC St. Pauli
W
29 Oct 2024
RB Leipzig
4 – 2
FC St. Pauli
W
22 Sep 2024
FC St. Pauli
0 – 0
RB Leipzig
D
RB LEIPZIG LAST 5 OVERALL
L W W W W
FC ST. PAULI LAST 5 OVERALL
L L D L D
MATCH IMPACT Final 2–1 · result locked
RB LEIPZIG #3
Won · already at 65 pts
Champions League
FC ST. PAULI #18
Lost · already at 26 pts
Relegation
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 Bayern München 33 27 5 1 +82 86
W D W W W
2 Borussia Dortmund 33 21 7 5 +34 70
W L W L L
3 RB Leipzig 33 20 5 8 +22 65
W L W W W
4 VfB Stuttgart 33 18 7 8 +22 61
W D D L W
5 1899 Hoffenheim 33 18 7 8 +17 61
W D W W D
6 Bayer Leverkusen 33 17 7 9 +21 58
L W W L W
7 SC Freiburg 33 12 8 13 -9 44
L D L W W
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 33 11 10 12 -4 43
L L D L W
9 FC Augsburg 33 12 7 14 -12 43
W W D W D
10 FSV Mainz 05 33 9 10 14 -11 37
L W L D L
11 Hamburger SV 33 9 10 14 -14 37
W W L L L
12 Union Berlin 33 9 9 15 -18 36
W D L L L
13 Borussia Mönchengladbach 33 8 11 14 -15 35
L W D D L
14 1. FC Köln 33 7 11 15 -10 32
L D L D W
15 Werder Bremen 33 8 8 17 -21 32
L L D W L
16 VfL Wolfsburg 33 6 8 19 -26 26
L D D W L
17 1. FC Heidenheim 33 6 8 19 -29 26
W D W L W
18 FC St. Pauli 33 6 8 19 -29 26
L L L D L
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 90'+1
    Subst · Benjamin Henrichs
    9th Substitution
  • 89'
    Subst · Danel Sinani
    8th Substitution
  • 89'
    Subst · Mathias Rasmussen
    7th Substitution
  • 86'
    Goal · 2-1 · Abdoulie Ceesay
    3rd Goal
  • 79'
    Subst · Antonio Nusa
    6th Substitution
  • 72'
    Subst · Abdoulie Ceesay
    5th Substitution
  • 69'
    Subst · Max Finkgräfe
    3rd Substitution
  • 69'
    Subst · Nicolas Seiwald
    4th Substitution
  • 64'
    Subst · Hauke Wahl
    2nd Substitution
  • 64'
    Subst · Fin Stevens
    1st Substitution
  • 54'
    Goal · 2-0
    2nd Goal
  • 50'
    Card · Foul · Christoph Baumgartner
    2nd Yellowcard
  • HALF TIME · 1 – 0
  • 45'
    Goal · 1-0 · Xaver Schlager
    1st Goal
  • 19'
    Card · Foul · Castello Lukeba
    1st Yellowcard
13 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 13 BOOKMAKERS
RB LEIPZIG WIN
1.31
76.3% implied
↑ best 1.33
DRAW
5.66
17.7% implied
↑ best 6.10
FC ST. PAULI WIN
9.00
11.1% implied
↑ best 9.95

Market favors RB Leipzig. AI projects RB LEIPZIG 72% · value bet Over 2.5.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS RB LEIPZIG 72% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 1.32 5.20 8.40 -1.2%
1xBet 1.33 6.10 9.95 +1.6%
888Sport 1.30 5.00 8.00 -2.0%
Bet365 1.30 5.75 9.00 +0.6%
Betano 1.33 6.00 9.50 +1.3%
Betfair 1.29 5.50 9.00 -0.2%
BetVictor 1.29 5.75 9.50 +0.6%
Dafabet 1.32 6.00 8.60 +1.3%
Marathonbet 1.32 5.90 9.50 +1.1%
Pinnacle 1.31 6.02 9.44 +1.4%
SBO 1.30 5.61 8.10 +0.2%
Unibet 1.28 5.75 9.50 +0.6%
William Hill 1.30 5.00 8.50 -1.8%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.11 U 5.82
2.5 O 1.42 U 2.76
3.5 O 2.10 U 1.74
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.72 10 bks
NO
2.05 10 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 4.32
Away -0.5 3.41
Away -0.75 3.13
Away -1 2.80
Away -1.25 2.29
Away -1.5 1.99
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.