GOALSENSE
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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 1–3 · UNION BERLIN 95% · Value: Over 2.5 85%
CONF 88 FULL ANALYSIS →
Bundesliga · REGULAR SEASON - 33 · SUN, 10 MAY · 17:30 LOCAL
FSV MAINZ 05
10TH · 37 PTS · LAST 5:
W L D L L
FT
1 – 3
FULL TIME HT · 0-1
UNION BERLIN
D L L L D
· 12TH · 36 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 48' S. Becker
GOALS
⚽ 38' Andrej Ilić ⚽ 88' Oliver Burke ⚽ 90+1' Josip Juranović
Christopher Trimmel
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Christopher Trimmel
Union Berlin · Captain · 81 mins
· 30% pass acc
RATING
8.9
PREDICTIONS
▶ MATCH HIGHLIGHTS

Goals, key moments & recap 1 CLIP

powered by Highlightly
Bundesliga: FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin
Open in Youtube ↗
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

1.50
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
2.67
53%
BALL POSSESSION %
47%
14
TOTAL SHOTS
15
3
SHOTS ON TARGET
9
84%
PASS ACCURACY %
82%
7
CORNERS
8
KEY EVENTS 18 events
  1. 7'
    Card · Yellow Card
    A. Caci
    FSV
  2. 16'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Danny da Costa · assist K. Potulski
    FSV
  3. 38'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Andrej Ilić · assist Aljoscha Kemlein
    UNI
  4. 48'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    S. Becker · assist Paul Nebel
    FSV
  5. 57'
    Var · Goal Disallowed - offside
    P. Tietz
    FSV
  6. 60'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Livan Burcu · assist Woo-Yeong Jeong
    UNI
  7. 60'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Tom Alexander Rothe · assist Derrick Köhn
    UNI
  8. 60'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Ilyas Ansah · assist András Schäfer
    UNI
  9. 70'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    A. Caci · assist Nikolas Veratschnig
    FSV
  10. 70'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Paul Nebel · assist Lee Jae-Sung
    FSV
  11. 75'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Lee Jae-Sung
    FSV
  12. 80'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Derrick Köhn
    UNI
  13. 81'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    P. Tietz · assist Nelson Weiper
    FSV
  14. 81'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    S. Becker · assist Armindo Sieb
    FSV
  15. 81'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Christopher Trimmel · assist Josip Juranović
    UNI
  16. 88'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Oliver Burke · assist Andrej Ilić
    UNI
  17. 89'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Oliver Burke · assist Tim Skarke
    UNI
  18. 90'+1
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Josip Juranović · assist Tim Skarke
    UNI
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
FSV MAINZ 05 AVG 7.3
UNION BERLIN AVG 7.7
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
1.5
xG
2.7
14.0
TOTAL SHOTS
15.0
3.0
ON TARGET
9.0
7.0
OFF TARGET
5.0
4.0
BLOCKED
1.0
POSSESSION
53.0%
POSSESSION %
47.0%
456.0
PASSES
398.0
84.0%
PASS ACCURACY
82.0%
SET PIECES
7.0
CORNERS
8.0
2.0
OFFSIDES
0.0
DISCIPLINE
11.0
FOULS
10.0
2.0
YELLOW CARDS
1.0
6.0
GK SAVES
2.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
FSV MAINZ 05 3 shots
S. Becker
1/2
A. Caci
0/1
UNION BERLIN 9 shots
Andrej Ilić
3/4
Danilho Doekhi
1/3
Oliver Burke
1/1
Aljoscha Kemlein
0/1
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 1.50 – 2.67
2.1 1.6 1.1 0.5 2.7 0.0 HT 48' 38' 88' 90' H 1.50 A 2.67 KO 30' 60' FT

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 50%
50% A
9
EVENTS LOGGED
9
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 3-5-2 vs 4-2-3-1
3-5-2
4-2-3-1
7.3
27
ROBIN ZEN
31
DOMINIK K
4
STEFAN PO
21
DANNY DA
 7.0
2
PHILLIPP
 7.2
10
NADIEM AM
6
K. SANO
8
PAUL NEBE
 6.9
19
A. CACI
 8.3
23
S. BECKER
20
P. TIETZ
25
CARL KLAU
15
TOM ALEXA
4
DIOGO LEI
 7.2
5
DANILHO D
 8.9
28
CHRISTOPH
 7.3
6
ALJOSCHA
8
RANI KHED
9
LIVAN BUR
10
ILYAS ANS
 7.7
7
OLIVER BU
 7.2
23
ANDREJ IL
SUBSTITUTES · FSV MAINZ 05
44
Nelson Weipe...
F
30
Silvan Widme...
D
15
Lennard Malo...
M
24
Sota Kawasak...
M
7
Lee Jae-Sung
M
22
Nikolas Vera...
D
33
Daniel Batz
G
48
K. Potulski
D
11
Armindo Sieb
F
COACH: Urs Fischer
SUBSTITUTES · UNION BERLIN
18
Josip Jurano...
D
21
Tim Skarke
M
33
Alex Král
M
39
Derrick Köhn
D
13
András Schäf...
M
34
Stanley Nsok...
D
14
Leopold Quer...
D
48
Tom Wisberei...
G
11
Woo-Yeong Je...
M
COACH: Marie-Louise Eta
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
FSV · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

UNI · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
Florian Exner, Germany
—
FSV MANAGER
Urs Fischer
head coach
UNI MANAGER
Marie-Louise Eta
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
1
FSV WINS
4
DRAWS
5
UNI WINS
10%
40%
50%
10 – 17
TOTAL GOALS · 10 MEETINGS
2.70
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 5 / 10
10 Jan 2026
Union Berlin
2 – 2
FSV Mainz 05
D
19 Jan 2025
Union Berlin
2 – 1
FSV Mainz 05
L
24 Aug 2024
FSV Mainz 05
1 – 1
Union Berlin
D
07 Feb 2024
FSV Mainz 05
1 – 1
Union Berlin
D
20 Aug 2023
Union Berlin
4 – 1
FSV Mainz 05
L
FSV MAINZ 05 LAST 5 OVERALL
W L D L L
UNION BERLIN LAST 5 OVERALL
D L L L D
MATCH IMPACT Final 1–3 · result locked
FSV MAINZ 05 #10
Lost · already at 37 pts
UNION BERLIN #12
Won · already at 36 pts
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 Bayern München 33 27 5 1 +82 86
W D W W W
2 Borussia Dortmund 33 21 7 5 +34 70
W L W L L
3 RB Leipzig 33 20 5 8 +22 65
W L W W W
4 VfB Stuttgart 33 18 7 8 +22 61
W D D L W
5 1899 Hoffenheim 33 18 7 8 +17 61
W D W W D
6 Bayer Leverkusen 33 17 7 9 +21 58
L W W L W
7 SC Freiburg 33 12 8 13 -9 44
L D L W W
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 33 11 10 12 -4 43
L L D L W
9 FC Augsburg 33 12 7 14 -12 43
W W D W D
10 FSV Mainz 05 33 9 10 14 -11 37
L W L D L
11 Hamburger SV 33 9 10 14 -14 37
W W L L L
12 Union Berlin 33 9 9 15 -18 36
W D L L L
13 Borussia Mönchengladbach 33 8 11 14 -15 35
L W D D L
14 1. FC Köln 33 7 11 15 -10 32
L D L D W
15 Werder Bremen 33 8 8 17 -21 32
L L D W L
16 VfL Wolfsburg 33 6 8 19 -26 26
L D D W L
17 1. FC Heidenheim 33 6 8 19 -29 26
W D W L W
18 FC St. Pauli 33 6 8 19 -29 26
L L L D L
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 90'+1
    Goal · Normal Goal · Josip Juranović
  • 89'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Oliver Burke
  • 88'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Oliver Burke
  • 81'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Christopher Trimmel
  • 81'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · S. Becker
  • 81'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · P. Tietz
  • 80'
    Card · Yellow Card · Derrick Köhn
  • 75'
    Card · Yellow Card · Lee Jae-Sung
    Foul
  • 70'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Paul Nebel
  • 70'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · A. Caci
  • 60'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Ilyas Ansah
  • 60'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Tom Alexander Rothe
  • 60'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Livan Burcu
  • 57'
    Var · Goal Disallowed - offside · P. Tietz
  • 48'
    Goal · Normal Goal · S. Becker
  • HALF TIME · 0 – 1
  • 38'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Andrej Ilić
  • 16'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Danny da Costa
  • 7'
    Card · Yellow Card · A. Caci
    Foul
13 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 13 BOOKMAKERS
FSV MAINZ 05 WIN
1.71
58.5% implied
↑ best 1.76
DRAW
4.00
25% implied
↑ best 4.22
UNION BERLIN WIN
4.55
22% implied
↑ best 4.78

Market favors FSV Mainz 05. AI projects UNION BERLIN 95% · value bet Over 2.5.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS UNION BERLIN 95% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 1.66 3.90 4.70 +73.7%
1xBet 1.76 4.22 4.78 +74.1%
888Sport 1.67 3.80 4.40 +72.3%
Bet365 1.70 4.10 4.33 +71.9%
Betano 1.75 4.10 4.75 +73.9%
Betfair 1.67 3.90 4.60 +73.3%
BetVictor 1.70 4.00 4.40 +72.3%
Dafabet 1.75 4.00 4.50 +72.8%
Marathonbet 1.73 4.15 4.70 +73.7%
Pinnacle 1.74 4.10 4.65 +73.5%
SBO 1.71 3.84 4.30 +71.7%
Unibet 1.68 3.95 4.60 +73.3%
William Hill 1.70 3.90 4.50 +72.8%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.18 U 4.52
2.5 O 1.64 U 2.25
3.5 O 2.55 U 1.48
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.63 10 bks
NO
2.19 10 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 2.55
Away -0.5 2.16
Away -0.75 1.91
Away -1 1.67
Away -1.25 1.53
Away -1.5 1.41
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.