GOALSENSE
SIGN IN
AI PREDICTION Projects FT 1–1 · FSV MAINZ 05 36%
CONF 48 FULL ANALYSIS →
Bundesliga · REGULAR SEASON - 32 · SUN, 03 MAY · 13:30 LOCAL
FC ST. PAULI
18TH · 26 PTS · LAST 5:
L L D L D
FT
1 – 2
FULL TIME HT · 0-2
FSV MAINZ 05
L L D L L
· 10TH · 37 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 87' Abdoulie Ceesay
GOALS
⚽ 6' Phillip Tietz ⚽ 40' —
Phillipp Mwene
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Phillipp Mwene
FSV Mainz 05 · 91 mins
⚽ 1 goal · 19% pass acc · 2 shots on
RATING
8.2
PREDICTIONS
▶ MATCH HIGHLIGHTS

Goals, key moments & recap 1 CLIP

powered by Highlightly
Bundesliga: FC St. Pauli vs FSV Mainz 05
Open in Youtube ↗
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

115%
BALL POSSESSION %
96%
10
TOTAL SHOTS
17
3
SHOTS ON TARGET
6
408%
PASS ACCURACY %
378%
7
CORNERS
7
KEY EVENTS 17 events
  1. 6'
    Goal · 0-1
    Phillip Tietz · assist Sheraldo Becker
    FSV
  2. 40'
    Goal · 0-2
    FSV
  3. 46'
    Subst
    Adam Dzwigala · assist Lars Ritzka
    FC
  4. 46'
    Subst
    Connor Metcalfe · assist Danel Sinani
    FC
  5. 65'
    Subst
    Abdoulie Ceesay · assist Eric Smith
    FC
  6. 65'
    Subst
    Martijn Kaars · assist Andréas Hountondji
    FC
  7. 68'
    Card · Time wasting
    Daniel Batz
    FSV
  8. 72'
    Subst
    Armindo Sieb · assist Sheraldo Becker
    FSV
  9. 76'
    Subst
    Dominik Kohr · assist Kacper Potulski
    FSV
  10. 77'
    Subst
    Anthony Caci · assist Silvan Widmer
    FSV
  11. 84'
    Subst
    Lennard Maloney · assist Nadiem Amiri
    FSV
  12. 84'
    Subst
    Mathias Rasmussen · assist Jackson Irvine
    FC
  13. 84'
    Subst
    Nelson Weiper · assist Phillip Tietz
    FSV
  14. 87'
    Goal · 1-2
    Abdoulie Ceesay · assist Martijn Kaars
    FC
  15. 88'
    Card · Foul
    Karol Mets
    FC
  16. 90'+1
    Card · Foul
    Connor Metcalfe
    FC
  17. 90'+4
    Card · Foul
    Abdoulie Ceesay
    FC
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
FC ST. PAULI AVG 7.4
FSV MAINZ 05 AVG 7.4
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
10.0
TOTAL SHOTS
17.0
3.0
ON TARGET
6.0
5.0
OFF TARGET
4.0
2.0
BLOCKED
7.0
POSSESSION
115.0%
POSSESSION %
96.0%
489.0
PASSES
465.0
408.0%
PASS ACCURACY
378.0%
SET PIECES
7.0
CORNERS
7.0
14.0
OFFSIDES
15.0
DISCIPLINE
10.0
FOULS
8.0
3.0
YELLOW CARDS
1.0
3.0
GK SAVES
1.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
FC ST. PAULI 3 shots
Abdoulie Ceesay
1/1
Tomoya Ando
0/1
Lars Ritzka
0/1
FSV MAINZ 05 7 shots
Phillipp Mwene
2/3
P. Tietz
1/3
Nadiem Amiri
1/1
⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 53%
47% A
9
EVENTS LOGGED
8
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 3-4-2-1 vs 3-5-2
3-4-2-1
3-5-2
22
NIKOLA VA
3
KAROL MET
5
HAUKE WAH
 7.3
15
TOMOYA AN
 7.2
21
LARS RITZ
8
ERIC SMIT
7
JACKSON I
11
ARKADIUSZ
 7.0
16
JOEL CHIM
10
DANEL SIN
27
ANDREAS H
33
DANIEL BA
48
K. POTULS
4
STEFAN PO
21
DANNY DA
 8.2
2
PHILLIPP
 7.2
10
NADIEM AM
 7.0
6
KAISHU SA
8
PAUL NEBE
 7.5
30
SILVAN WI
 7.2
20
P. TIETZ
23
S. BECKER
SUBSTITUTES · FC ST. PAULI
19
Martijn Kaar...
F
9
Abdoulie Cee...
F
23
Louis Oppie
D
20
Mathias Rasm...
M
4
David Nemeth
D
1
Ben Voll
G
24
Connor Metca...
M
25
Adam Dźwigał...
D
18
Taichi Hara
F
COACH: Alexander Blessin
SUBSTITUTES · FSV MAINZ 05
44
Nelson Weipe...
F
24
Sota Kawasak...
M
15
Lennard Malo...
M
19
A. Caci
D
16
S. Bell
D
22
Nikolas Vera...
D
31
Dominik Kohr
M
27
Robin Zentne...
G
11
Armindo Sieb
F
COACH: Urs Fischer
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
FC · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

FSV · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
Timo Gerach, Germany
—
FC MANAGER
Alexander Blessin
head coach
FSV MANAGER
Urs Fischer
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
0
FC WINS
1
DRAWS
4
FSV WINS
20%
80%
3 – 11
TOTAL GOALS · 5 MEETINGS
2.80
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 5 / 5
21 Dec 2025
FSV Mainz 05
0 – 0
FC St. Pauli
D
22 Feb 2025
FSV Mainz 05
2 – 0
FC St. Pauli
L
05 Oct 2024
FC St. Pauli
0 – 3
FSV Mainz 05
L
14 May 2011
FSV Mainz 05
2 – 1
FC St. Pauli
L
18 Dec 2010
FC St. Pauli
2 – 4
FSV Mainz 05
L
FC ST. PAULI LAST 5 OVERALL
L L D L D
FSV MAINZ 05 LAST 5 OVERALL
L L D L L
MATCH IMPACT Final 1–2 · result locked
FC ST. PAULI #18
Lost · already at 26 pts
Relegation
FSV MAINZ 05 #10
Won · already at 37 pts
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 Bayern München 33 27 5 1 +82 86
W D W W W
2 Borussia Dortmund 33 21 7 5 +34 70
W L W L L
3 RB Leipzig 33 20 5 8 +22 65
W L W W W
4 VfB Stuttgart 33 18 7 8 +22 61
W D D L W
5 1899 Hoffenheim 33 18 7 8 +17 61
W D W W D
6 Bayer Leverkusen 33 17 7 9 +21 58
L W W L W
7 SC Freiburg 33 12 8 13 -9 44
L D L W W
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 33 11 10 12 -4 43
L L D L W
9 FC Augsburg 33 12 7 14 -12 43
W W D W D
10 FSV Mainz 05 33 9 10 14 -11 37
L W L D L
11 Hamburger SV 33 9 10 14 -14 37
W W L L L
12 Union Berlin 33 9 9 15 -18 36
W D L L L
13 Borussia Mönchengladbach 33 8 11 14 -15 35
L W D D L
14 1. FC Köln 33 7 11 15 -10 32
L D L D W
15 Werder Bremen 33 8 8 17 -21 32
L L D W L
16 VfL Wolfsburg 33 6 8 19 -26 26
L D D W L
17 1. FC Heidenheim 33 6 8 19 -29 26
W D W L W
18 FC St. Pauli 33 6 8 19 -29 26
L L L D L
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 90'+4
    Card · Foul · Abdoulie Ceesay
    4th Yellowcard
  • 90'+1
    Card · Foul · Connor Metcalfe
    3rd Yellowcard
  • 88'
    Card · Foul · Karol Mets
    2nd Yellowcard
  • 87'
    Goal · 1-2 · Abdoulie Ceesay
    3rd Goal
  • 84'
    Subst · Nelson Weiper
    10th Substitution
  • 84'
    Subst · Mathias Rasmussen
    9th Substitution
  • 84'
    Subst · Lennard Maloney
    8th Substitution
  • 77'
    Subst · Anthony Caci
    7th Substitution
  • 76'
    Subst · Dominik Kohr
    6th Substitution
  • 72'
    Subst · Armindo Sieb
    5th Substitution
  • 68'
    Card · Time wasting · Daniel Batz
    1st Yellowcard
  • 65'
    Subst · Martijn Kaars
    4th Substitution
  • 65'
    Subst · Abdoulie Ceesay
    3rd Substitution
  • 46'
    Subst · Connor Metcalfe
    2nd Substitution
  • 46'
    Subst · Adam Dzwigala
    1st Substitution
  • HALF TIME · 0 – 2
  • 40'
    Goal · 0-2
    2nd Goal
  • 6'
    Goal · 0-1 · Phillip Tietz
    1st Goal
13 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 13 BOOKMAKERS
FC ST. PAULI WIN
2.75
36.4% implied
↑ best 2.89
DRAW
3.24
30.9% implied
↑ best 3.38
FSV MAINZ 05 WIN
2.60
38.5% implied
↑ best 2.69

Market favors FSV Mainz 05. AI projects FSV MAINZ 05 36%.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS FSV MAINZ 05 36% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 2.66 3.25 2.60 -1.8%
1xBet 2.89 3.38 2.68 +0.4%
888Sport 2.70 3.10 2.50 -2.0%
Bet365 2.70 3.30 2.62 -1.3%
Betano 2.72 3.25 2.67 -1.5%
Betfair 2.70 3.25 2.60 -1.8%
BetVictor 2.70 3.25 2.60 -1.8%
Dafabet 2.80 3.30 2.65 -0.7%
Marathonbet 2.84 3.32 2.64 -0.2%
Pinnacle 2.81 3.32 2.69 -0.6%
SBO 2.68 3.20 2.54 -2.3%
Unibet 2.80 3.15 2.55 -0.7%
William Hill 2.75 3.10 2.50 -1.4%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.34 U 3.14
2.5 O 2.07 U 1.76
3.5 O 3.70 U 1.26
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.78 10 bks
NO
1.96 10 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 1.62
Away -0.5 1.45
Away -0.75 1.31
Away -1 1.17
Away -1.25 1.13
Away -1.5 1.10
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.