GOALSENSE
SIGN IN
AI PREDICTION Projects FT 1–1 · MARSEILLE 50% · Value: Over 2.5 62%
CONF 51 FULL ANALYSIS →
Ligue 1 · REGULAR SEASON - 34 · SUN, 17 MAY · 19:00 LOCAL
MARSEILLE
5TH · 59 PTS · LAST 5:
W L D L W
FT
3 – 1
FULL TIME HT · 2-0
RENNES
W L W W W
· 6TH · 59 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 2' Pierre-Emile Højbjerg ⚽ 10' Amine Gouiri ⚽ 55' Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang
GOALS
⚽ 84' Esteban Lepaul
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg
Marseille · Captain · 82 mins
⚽ 1 goal · 🅰 1 assist · 44% pass acc · 1 shots on
RATING
9.0
PREDICTIONS
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

3.01
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
2.39
45%
BALL POSSESSION %
55%
27
TOTAL SHOTS
24
11
SHOTS ON TARGET
5
83%
PASS ACCURACY %
85%
4
CORNERS
10
KEY EVENTS 15 events
  1. 2'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Pierre-Emile Højbjerg · assist Mason Greenwood
    MAR
  2. 10'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Amine Gouiri
    MAR
  3. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Sebastian Szymański · assist Breel Embolo
    REN
  4. 49'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Pierre-Emile Højbjerg
    MAR
  5. 55'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang · assist Pierre-Emile Højbjerg
    MAR
  6. 67'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Mousa Tamari · assist Arnaud Nordin
    REN
  7. 72'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Igor Paixão · assist Arthur Vermeeren
    MAR
  8. 76'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Amine Gouiri
    MAR
  9. 79'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Mahdi Camara
    REN
  10. 79'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Ludovic Blas · assist Nordan Mukiele
    REN
  11. 82'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Pierre-Emile Højbjerg · assist Quinten Timber
    MAR
  12. 83'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Tochukwu Nnadi · assist Nouhoum Kamissoko
    MAR
  13. 84'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Esteban Lepaul · assist Arnaud Nordin
    REN
  14. 88'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Tim Weah · assist Benjamin Pavard
    MAR
  15. 90'+5
    Card · Yellow Card
    Benjamin Pavard
    MAR
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
MARSEILLE AVG 8.1
RENNES AVG 7.1
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
3.0
xG
2.4
27.0
TOTAL SHOTS
24.0
11.0
ON TARGET
5.0
9.0
OFF TARGET
12.0
7.0
BLOCKED
7.0
POSSESSION
45.0%
POSSESSION %
55.0%
386.0
PASSES
448.0
83.0%
PASS ACCURACY
85.0%
SET PIECES
4.0
CORNERS
10.0
2.0
OFFSIDES
2.0
DISCIPLINE
10.0
FOULS
10.0
2.0
YELLOW CARDS
1.0
4.0
GK SAVES
8.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
MARSEILLE 7 shots
Mason Greenwood
1/3
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg
1/2
Amine Gouiri
1/1
Emerson
0/1
RENNES 6 shots
Esteban Lepaul
1/3
Mahdi Camara
1/2
Arnaud Nordin
1/1
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 3.01 – 2.39
2.4 1.8 1.2 0.6 3.0 0.0 HT 2' 10' 55' 84' H 3.01 A 2.39 KO 30' 60' FT

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 67%
33% A
10
EVENTS LOGGED
5
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 4-2-3-1 vs 4-1-4-1
4-2-3-1
4-1-4-1
1
GERóNIMO
 7.5
33
EMERSON
 7.5
32
FACUNDO M
5
LEONARDO
22
TIM WEAH
 9.0
23
PIERRE-EM
6
TOCHUKWU
14
IGOR PAIX
 7.9
9
AMINE GOU
 8.6
10
MASON GRE
17
PIERRE-EM
 7.2
50
MATHYS SI
26
QUENTIN M
24
ANTHONY R
48
ABDELHAMI
18
MAHAMADOU
 7.2
21
VALENTIN
10
LUDOVIC B
 6.9
45
MAHDI CAM
17
SEBASTIAN
11
MOUSA TAM
 7.3
9
ESTEBAN L
SUBSTITUTES · MARSEILLE
71
Nouhoum Kami...
M
11
Ethan Nwaner...
M
26
Bilal Nadir
M
27
Quinten Timb...
M
72
Hilan Hamzao...
D
28
Benjamin Pav...
D
12
Jeffrey De L...
G
18
Arthur Verme...
M
78
Ange Lago
F
COACH: Habib Beye
SUBSTITUTES · RENNES
65
Nordan Mukie...
F
69
Henrick Do M...
F
6
Djaoui Cissé
M
36
Alidu Seidu
D
3
Lilian Brass...
D
60
Kilian Belaz...
G
70
Arnaud Nordi...
F
7
Breel Embolo
F
77
Yassir Zabir...
F
COACH: Franck Haise
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
MAR · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

REN · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
Ruddy Buquet, France
—
MAR MANAGER
Habib Beye
head coach
REN MANAGER
Franck Haise
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
6
MAR WINS
2
DRAWS
2
REN WINS
60%
20%
20%
15 – 8
TOTAL GOALS · 10 MEETINGS
2.30
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 5 / 10
03 Feb 2026
Marseille
3 – 0
Rennes
W
15 Aug 2025
Rennes
1 – 0
Marseille
L
17 May 2025
Marseille
4 – 2
Rennes
W
11 Jan 2025
Rennes
1 – 2
Marseille
W
17 Mar 2024
Rennes
2 – 0
Marseille
L
MARSEILLE LAST 5 OVERALL
W L D L W
RENNES LAST 5 OVERALL
W L W W W
MATCH IMPACT Final 3–1 · result locked
MARSEILLE #5
Won · already at 59 pts
UEFA Europa League
RENNES #6
Lost · already at 59 pts
Conference League Qualification
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 Paris Saint Germain 34 24 4 6 +45 76
L W W D W
2 Lens 34 22 4 8 +31 70
W L W D D
3 Lille 34 18 7 9 +15 61
L W D W D
4 Lyon 34 18 6 10 +13 60
L L W W W
5 Marseille 34 18 5 11 +18 59
W W L D L
6 Rennes 34 17 8 9 +9 59
L W L W W
7 Monaco 34 16 6 12 +6 54
L L W D D
8 Strasbourg 34 15 8 11 +11 53
W W D L W
9 Lorient 34 11 12 11 -3 45
L W D L W
10 Toulouse 33 12 8 13 +1 44
W W D L L
11 Paris FC 34 11 11 12 -3 44
W L W L W
12 Stade Brestois 29 34 10 9 15 -12 39
D L L L D
13 Angers 34 9 9 16 -19 36
D D L L D
14 Le Havre 34 7 14 13 -12 35
W L D D D
15 Auxerre 34 8 10 16 -10 34
W W W L D
16 Nice 34 7 11 16 -23 32
D L D D D
17 Nantes 33 5 8 20 -23 23
L W L L D
18 Metz 34 3 8 23 -44 17
D L L D L
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 90'+5
    Card · Yellow Card · Benjamin Pavard
    Unsportsmanlike conduct
  • 88'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Tim Weah
  • 84'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Esteban Lepaul
  • 83'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Tochukwu Nnadi
  • 82'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Pierre-Emile Højbjerg
  • 79'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Ludovic Blas
  • 79'
    Card · Yellow Card · Mahdi Camara
    Holding
  • 76'
    Card · Yellow Card · Amine Gouiri
    Tripping
  • 72'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Igor Paixão
  • 67'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Mousa Tamari
  • 55'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang
  • 49'
    Card · Yellow Card · Pierre-Emile Højbjerg
    Holding
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Sebastian Szymański
  • HALF TIME · 2 – 0
  • 10'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Amine Gouiri
  • 2'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Pierre-Emile Højbjerg
13 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 13 BOOKMAKERS
MARSEILLE WIN
2.04
49% implied
↑ best 2.10
DRAW
3.94
25.4% implied
↑ best 4.16
RENNES WIN
3.20
31.3% implied
↑ best 3.48

Market favors Marseille. AI projects MARSEILLE 50% · value bet Over 2.5.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS MARSEILLE 50% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 2.06 3.85 3.05 +1.5%
1xBet 2.05 4.16 3.48 +1.2%
888Sport 2.00 3.75 3.10 0.0%
Bet365 2.05 4.00 3.20 +1.2%
Betano 2.10 3.90 3.15 +2.4%
Betfair 2.00 3.90 3.25 0.0%
BetVictor 2.05 4.10 3.10 +1.2%
Dafabet 2.08 4.10 3.20 +1.9%
Marathonbet 2.02 4.10 3.44 +0.5%
Pinnacle 2.10 4.06 3.28 +2.4%
SBO 2.03 3.79 3.01 +0.7%
Unibet 2.00 3.80 3.25 0.0%
William Hill 2.00 3.75 3.10 0.0%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.08 U 6.71
2.5 O 1.35 U 3.05
3.5 O 1.90 U 1.90
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.33 10 bks
NO
3.09 10 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 2.06
Away -0.5 1.79
Away -0.75 1.62
Away -1 1.45
Away -1.25 1.38
Away -1.5 1.31
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.