GOALSENSE
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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 2–0 · MARSEILLE 68% · Value: Over 2.5 62%
CONF 61 FULL ANALYSIS →
Ligue 1 · REGULAR SEASON - 31 · SUN, 26 APR · 18:45 LOCAL
MARSEILLE
6TH · 53 PTS · LAST 5:
L W L L W
FT
1 – 1
FULL TIME HT · 0-0
NICE
W D D L L
· 15TH · 30 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 66' P. Højbjerg
GOALS
⚽ 88' E. Wahi (P)
P. Højbjerg
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
P. Højbjerg
Marseille · Captain · 94 mins
⚽ 1 goal · 79% pass acc · 1 shots on
RATING
8.2
PREDICTIONS
▶ MATCH HIGHLIGHTS

Goals, key moments & recap 2 CLIPS

powered by Highlightly
Résumé : NICE accroche MARSEILLE grâce à une PANENKA d'Elye Wahi
Watch on Youtube ↗
Ligue 1: Marseille vs Nice
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

1.76
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
1.37
68%
BALL POSSESSION %
32%
19
TOTAL SHOTS
5
5
SHOTS ON TARGET
2
88%
PASS ACCURACY %
74%
6
CORNERS
1
KEY EVENTS 16 events
  1. 29'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Emerson
    MAR
  2. 44'
    Card · Yellow Card
    E. Wahi
    NIC
  3. 44'
    Card · Yellow Card
    F. Medina
    MAR
  4. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    M. Sanson · assist S. Diop
    NIC
  5. 62'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Emerson · assist T. Mmadi
    MAR
  6. 63'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    A. Vermeeren · assist M. Greenwood
    MAR
  7. 66'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    P. Højbjerg · assist T. Nnadi
    MAR
  8. 67'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    M. Cho · assist K. Boudache
    NIC
  9. 80'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    T. Nnadi · assist Nouhoum Kamissoko
    MAR
  10. 81'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Q. Timber · assist H. Abdelli
    MAR
  11. 81'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    S. Abdul Samed · assist Kevin Carlos
    NIC
  12. 81'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    M. Bard · assist A. Abdi
    NIC
  13. 86'
    Card · Yellow Card
    T. Weah
    MAR
  14. 87'
    Card · Yellow Card
    G. Rulli
    MAR
  15. 88'
    Goal · Penalty
    E. Wahi
    NIC
  16. 90'+1
    Subst · Substitution 5
    E. Wahi · assist C. Vanhoutte
    NIC
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
MARSEILLE AVG 7.5
NICE AVG 7.0
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
1.8
xG
1.4
19.0
TOTAL SHOTS
5.0
5.0
ON TARGET
2.0
11.0
OFF TARGET
2.0
3.0
BLOCKED
1.0
POSSESSION
68.0%
POSSESSION %
32.0%
625.0
PASSES
296.0
88.0%
PASS ACCURACY
74.0%
SET PIECES
6.0
CORNERS
1.0
0.0
OFFSIDES
2.0
DISCIPLINE
14.0
FOULS
6.0
4.0
YELLOW CARDS
1.0
1.0
GK SAVES
3.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
MARSEILLE 10 shots
L. Balerdi
1/6
P. Højbjerg
1/2
T. Weah
0/1
T. Nnadi
0/1
NICE 2 shots
E. Wahi
2/2
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 1.76 – 1.37
1.4 1.1 0.7 0.4 1.8 0.0 HT 66' 88' H 1.76 A 1.37 KO 30' 60' FT

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 56%
44% A
9
EVENTS LOGGED
7
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 3-5-1-1 vs 5-4-1
3-5-1-1
5-4-1
1
G. RULLI
 6.9
32
F. MEDINA
 7.3
5
L. BALERD
28
B. PAVARD
33
EMERSON
18
A. VERMEE
 8.2
23
P. HøJBJE
 7.0
6
T. NNADI
 7.9
22
T. WEAH
27
Q. TIMBER
17
P. AUBAME
80
Y. DIOUF
 6.9
26
M. BARD
37
K. PEPRAH
 6.9
28
ABDULAY B
33
A. MENDY
 6.9
92
J. CLAUSS
8
M. SANSON
99
S. ABDUL
 7.2
6
H. BOUDAO
25
M. CHO
 6.9
11
E. WAHI
SUBSTITUTES · MARSEILLE
78
Ange Lago
F
70
U. Lamare El...
F
8
H. Abdelli
M
11
E. Nwaneri
M
76
T. Mmadi
M
71
Nouhoum Kami...
M
72
Hilan Hamzao...
D
12
J. de Lange
G
10
M. Greenwood
F
COACH: Habib Beye
SUBSTITUTES · NICE
90
Kevin Carlos
F
20
T. Louchet
M
10
S. Diop
M
24
C. Vanhoutte
M
39
D. Coulibaly
M
2
A. Abdi
D
4
Dante
D
31
M. Dupé
G
32
K. Boudache
F
COACH: Claude Puel
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
MAR · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

NIC · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
Willy Delajod, France
—
MAR MANAGER
Habib Beye
head coach
NIC MANAGER
Claude Puel
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
4
MAR WINS
2
DRAWS
4
NIC WINS
40%
20%
40%
17 – 15
TOTAL GOALS · 10 MEETINGS
3.20
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 5 / 10
21 Nov 2025
Nice
1 – 5
Marseille
W
26 Jan 2025
Nice
2 – 0
Marseille
L
14 Sep 2024
Marseille
2 – 0
Nice
W
24 Apr 2024
Marseille
2 – 2
Nice
D
21 Oct 2023
Nice
1 – 0
Marseille
L
MARSEILLE LAST 5 OVERALL
L W L L W
NICE LAST 5 OVERALL
W D D L L
MATCH IMPACT Final 1–1 · result locked
MARSEILLE #6
Lost · already at 53 pts
Conference League Qualification
NICE #15
Lost · already at 30 pts
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 Paris Saint Germain 30 22 3 5 +43 69
W W L W W
2 Lens 30 20 3 7 +28 63
D W L W L
3 Lille 31 17 6 8 +16 57
W D W W W
4 Lyon 31 17 6 8 +16 57
W W W D L
5 Rennes 31 16 8 7 +12 56
W W W W D
6 Marseille 31 16 5 10 +18 53
D L W L L
7 Monaco 31 15 6 10 +7 51
D D L W W
8 Strasbourg 30 13 7 10 +10 46
W L W W D
9 Lorient 31 10 11 10 -5 41
L W L D L
10 Toulouse 31 10 8 13 -1 38
D L L L W
11 Stade Brestois 29 30 10 8 12 -6 38
D D L L L
12 Paris FC 31 9 11 11 -7 38
L W W D W
13 Angers 31 9 7 15 -17 34
L D L D L
14 Le Havre 31 6 13 12 -13 31
D D D D L
15 Nice 31 7 9 15 -22 30
D D D L L
16 Auxerre 31 5 10 16 -15 25
L D D D W
17 Nantes 31 4 8 19 -25 20
L L D D D
18 Metz 31 3 7 21 -39 16
D L L D D
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 90'+1
    Subst · Substitution 5 · E. Wahi
  • 88'
    Goal · Penalty · E. Wahi
  • 87'
    Card · Yellow Card · G. Rulli
    Unsportsmanlike conduct
  • 86'
    Card · Yellow Card · T. Weah
    Unsportsmanlike conduct
  • 81'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · M. Bard
  • 81'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · S. Abdul Samed
  • 81'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Q. Timber
  • 80'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · T. Nnadi
  • 67'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · M. Cho
  • 66'
    Goal · Normal Goal · P. Højbjerg
  • 63'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · A. Vermeeren
  • 62'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Emerson
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · M. Sanson
  • HALF TIME · 0 – 0
  • 44'
    Card · Yellow Card · F. Medina
    Unsportsmanlike conduct
  • 44'
    Card · Yellow Card · E. Wahi
    Unsportsmanlike conduct
  • 29'
    Card · Yellow Card · Emerson
    Tripping
13 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 13 BOOKMAKERS
MARSEILLE WIN
1.65
60.6% implied
↑ best 1.73
DRAW
4.08
24.5% implied
↑ best 4.40
NICE WIN
4.87
20.5% implied
↑ best 5.20

Market favors Marseille. AI projects MARSEILLE 68% · value bet Over 2.5.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS MARSEILLE 68% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 1.65 3.90 4.75 +7.4%
1xBet 1.73 4.36 4.82 +10.2%
888Sport 1.57 4.00 4.80 +4.3%
Bet365 1.70 3.80 4.75 +9.2%
Betano 1.70 4.05 5.20 +9.2%
Betfair 1.65 3.90 4.75 +7.4%
BetVictor 1.62 4.20 5.00 +6.3%
Dafabet 1.61 4.40 5.20 +5.9%
Marathonbet 1.70 4.30 4.75 +9.2%
Pinnacle 1.71 4.09 4.87 +9.5%
SBO 1.66 3.85 4.46 +7.8%
Unibet 1.58 4.25 5.10 +4.7%
William Hill 1.57 4.00 4.80 +4.3%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.17 U 4.66
2.5 O 1.60 U 2.31
3.5 O 2.48 U 1.53
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.61 10 bks
NO
2.22 10 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 2.73
Away -0.5 2.27
Away -0.75 2.00
Away -1 1.73
Away -1.25 1.58
Away -1.5 1.49
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.