GOALSENSE
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Championship · REGULAR SEASON - 46 · SAT, 02 MAY · 11:30 LOCAL
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SWANSEA
FT
3 – 1
FULL TIME
CHARLTON
⚽ 74' Adam Idah ⚽ 82' Adam Idah ⚽ 88' Leo Walta
GOALS
⚽ 79' Miles Leaburn
CLAUDE AI · BLENDED FROM 4 MODELS
FINAL · VERIFIED
CONF 58/100 MED
🔮 PREDICTED FULL-TIME SCORE
SWA
2 – 1
CHA
most likely scoreline · 11.2% probability
AI PICKS SWANSEA TO WIN 52%
FT 3 – 1
→
🤖 AI PROJECTED FT 2 – 1
🤖 AI BREAKDOWN

HOW AI SEES THE MATCH

FINAL · VERIFIED
SWA WIN 52%
DRAW 26%
CHA WIN 22%
h + d + a = 100% · stacked share
💰 AI BETTING TIP
OVER 1.5

AI projects 79.48% — the safest goals market. Combined value over single 1X2 pick at this confidence.

CONF 79% OVER 1.5 ✓ 4 models
🤖 AI ANALYSIS

Swansea slight home favourite on quality gap, but Charlton's away form resilience keeps this competitive.

🤖 AI REASONING why AI picked this
WHY SWANSEA FAVORED
52%
Swansea 8 pts ahead, better GF (54 vs 43) and lower GA (58 vs 55) — quality edge
+25.0%
WHY CHARLTON CHALLENGED
22%
Swansea home form mixed (LDLWD) vs Charlton away form solid (DDDWD) — edge narrow
+20.0%
Bookmaker odds (51.8% home) align with data; SportMonks (44.2%) appears underweighting quality gap
+15.0%
🤖 CONTEXT · NEUTRAL FACTORS
  • Swansea home form mixed (LDLWD) vs Charlton away form solid (DDDWD) — edge narrow
  • Bookmaker odds (51.8% home) align with data; SportMonks (44.2%) appears underweighting quality gap
🤖 AI LIVE TIMELINE

PROBABILITY TIMELINE

How AI re-projects after each event
H DRAW A
100% 50% 0% KO 15' 30' HT 60' 75' FT ⚽ 74' ADAM IDAH ⚽ 79' MILES LEAB ⚽ 82' ADAM IDAH ⚽ 88' LEO WALTA
Probabilities re-blended at each event · 4 events marked → Derived from goal events + remaining time
🤖 AI SCORE MATRIX

SCORELINE PROBABILITY

All possible scorelines · Poisson from xG
0% 11.2%+
0
1
2
3
4
5
6+
0
5.0
4.4
1.9
0.6
0.1
·
·
1
10.6
9.3
4.1
1.2
0.3
·
·
2
11.2
9.9
4.3
1.3
0.3
·
·
3
7.9
7.0
3.1
0.9
0.2
·
·
4
4.2
3.7
1.6
0.5
0.1
·
·
5
1.8
1.6
0.7
0.2
·
·
·
6+
0.6
0.6
0.2
0.1
·
·
·
MOST LIKELY · TOP 5
2 — 0 11.2%
1 — 0 10.6%
2 — 1 9.9%
1 — 1 9.3%
3 — 0 7.9%
Top 5 = 48.8% · rest 51.2%
🤖 AI VALUE FINDER

VALUE BETS

Where AI sees an edge vs bookmaker odds
8 markets · pre-match avg odds
MARKETODDSAI PROBFAIREDGE
Both Teams Score — YES
9 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.66
58.0%
1.72
-3.8%
—
HOME to Win
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.84
52.0%
1.92
-4.3%
—
HOME or Draw (1X)
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.23
78.0%
1.28
-4.4%
—
Draw
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
3.67
26.0%
3.85
-4.5%
—
Over 2.5 Goals
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.76
54.0%
1.85
-4.9%
—
HOME or AWAY (12)
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.25
74.0%
1.35
-7.3%
—
Draw or AWAY (X2)
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.91
48.0%
2.08
-8.1%
—
AWAY to Win
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
4.02
22.0%
4.55
-11.6%
—
⚠ 18+ only. Odds change frequently. AI predictions are not guarantees. Bet responsibly.