GOALSENSE
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Championship · REGULAR SEASON - 46 · SAT, 02 MAY · 11:30 LOCAL
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WREXHAM
FT
2 – 2
FULL TIME
MIDDLESBROUGH
⚽ 28' Josh Windass ⚽ 41' Sam Smith
GOALS
⚽ 4' Tommy Conway ⚽ 43' David Strelec
CLAUDE AI · BLENDED FROM 4 MODELS
FINAL · VERIFIED
CONF 52/100 MED
🔮 PREDICTED FULL-TIME SCORE
WRE
1 – 2
MID
most likely scoreline · 10.3% probability
AI PICKS MIDDLESBROUGH TO WIN 40%
FT 2 – 2
→
🤖 AI PROJECTED FT 1 – 2
🤖 AI BREAKDOWN

HOW AI SEES THE MATCH

FINAL · VERIFIED
WRE WIN 32%
DRAW 28%
MID WIN 40%
h + d + a = 100% · stacked share
💰 AI BETTING TIP
OVER 1.5

AI projects 79.59% — the safest goals market. Combined value over single 1X2 pick at this confidence.

CONF 80% OVER 1.5 ✓ avoid: 1X2 single 4 models
🤖 AI ANALYSIS

Middlesbrough's superior quality and recent form favour the away win; Wrexham's home strength provides narrow edge over draw.

🤖 AI REASONING why AI picked this
WHY WREXHAM CHALLENGED
32%
Middlesbrough 9 pts clear, stronger GD (+25 vs Wrexham's 0), and on WWDLD form vs Wrexham's LWWLL
+25.0%
Wrexham home form WLWLW shows volatility; Middlesbrough road form DDDWW improving late but historically shaky
+20.0%
SportMonks away-win probability (43.55%) aligns with bookmaker away odds (38.5% implied), suggesting modest away value
+15.0%
WHY MIDDLESBROUGH FAVORED
40%
Middlesbrough 9 pts clear, stronger GD (+25 vs Wrexham's 0), and on WWDLD form vs Wrexham's LWWLL
+25.0%
Wrexham home form WLWLW shows volatility; Middlesbrough road form DDDWW improving late but historically shaky
+20.0%
SportMonks away-win probability (43.55%) aligns with bookmaker away odds (38.5% implied), suggesting modest away value
+15.0%
🤖 CONTEXT · NEUTRAL FACTORS
  • Middlesbrough 9 pts clear, stronger GD (+25 vs Wrexham's 0), and on WWDLD form vs Wrexham's LWWLL
  • Wrexham home form WLWLW shows volatility; Middlesbrough road form DDDWW improving late but historically shaky
  • SportMonks away-win probability (43.55%) aligns with bookmaker away odds (38.5% implied), suggesting modest away value
🤖 AI LIVE TIMELINE

PROBABILITY TIMELINE

How AI re-projects after each event
H DRAW A
100% 50% 0% KO 15' 30' HT 60' 75' FT ⚽ 4' TOMMY CONW ⚽ 28' JOSH WINDA ⚽ 41' SAM SMITH ⚽ 43' DAVID STRE
Probabilities re-blended at each event · 4 events marked → Derived from goal events + remaining time
🤖 AI SCORE MATRIX

SCORELINE PROBABILITY

All possible scorelines · Poisson from xG
0% 10.3%+
0
1
2
3
4
5
6+
0
5.0
10.1
10.3
6.9
3.5
1.4
0.5
1
4.8
9.8
10.0
6.7
3.4
1.4
0.5
2
2.3
4.8
4.8
3.3
1.7
0.7
0.2
3
0.8
1.5
1.6
1.1
0.5
0.2
0.1
4
0.2
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.1
·
·
5
·
0.1
0.1
·
·
·
·
6+
·
·
·
·
·
·
·
MOST LIKELY · TOP 5
0 — 2 10.3%
0 — 1 10.1%
1 — 2 10.0%
1 — 1 9.8%
0 — 3 6.9%
Top 5 = 47.1% · rest 52.9%
🤖 AI VALUE FINDER

VALUE BETS

Where AI sees an edge vs bookmaker odds
8 markets · pre-match avg odds
MARKETODDSAI PROBFAIREDGE
Draw
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
3.56
28.0%
3.57
-0.4%
—
Draw or AWAY (X2)
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.44
68.0%
1.47
-2.1%
—
AWAY to Win
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
2.44
40.0%
2.50
-2.5%
—
Over 2.5 Goals
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.73
56.0%
1.79
-3.3%
—
Both Teams Score — YES
9 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.59
59.0%
1.69
-6.3%
—
HOME or AWAY (12)
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.27
72.0%
1.39
-8.4%
—
HOME or Draw (1X)
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.52
60.0%
1.67
-8.6%
—
HOME to Win
12 bookmakers · pre-match avg
2.69
32.0%
3.13
-13.8%
—
⚠ 18+ only. Odds change frequently. AI predictions are not guarantees. Bet responsibly.