GOALSENSE
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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 1–3 · EXCELSIOR 93% · Value: Over 2.5 92%
CONF 88 FULL ANALYSIS →
Eredivisie · REGULAR SEASON - 34 · SUN, 17 MAY · 12:30 LOCAL
SPARTA ROTTERDAM
10TH · 43 PTS · LAST 5:
L D L L D
FT
2 – 3
FULL TIME HT · 0-1
EXCELSIOR
D W W D L
· 13TH · 38 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 53' Ayoni Santos ⚽ 90+1' Milan Zonneveld
GOALS
⚽ 14' Giannino Vianello ⚽ 50' Arthur Zagré ⚽ 62' Noah Naujoks
Ayoni Santos
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Ayoni Santos
Sparta Rotterdam · 95 mins
⚽ 1 goal · 14% pass acc · 1 shots on
RATING
8.2
PREDICTIONS
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

113%
BALL POSSESSION %
102%
18
TOTAL SHOTS
16
5
SHOTS ON TARGET
4
340%
PASS ACCURACY %
301%
5
CORNERS
2
KEY EVENTS 19 events
  1. 14'
    Goal · 0-1
    Giannino Vianello
    EXC
  2. 40'
    Card · Foul
    Vito van Crooij
    SPA
  3. 46'
    Subst
    Milan Zonneveld · assist Saïd Bakari
    SPA
  4. 46'
    Subst
    Julian Baas · assist Pelle Clement
    SPA
  5. 50'
    Goal · 0-2
    Arthur Zagré
    EXC
  6. 53'
    Goal · 1-2
    Ayoni Santos
    SPA
  7. 54'
    Card · Foul
    Julian Baas
    SPA
  8. 62'
    Goal · 1-3
    Noah Naujoks · assist Gyan de Regt
    EXC
  9. 64'
    Subst
    Ilias Bronkhorst · assist Rick Meissen
    EXC
  10. 71'
    Subst
    Patrick van Aanholt · assist Giannino Vianello
    SPA
  11. 71'
    Card · Foul
    Teo Quintero
    SPA
  12. 71'
    Subst
    Jonathan de Guzmán · assist Shunsuke Mito
    SPA
  13. 75'
    Subst
    Jerolldino Bergraaf · assist Mike van Duinen
    EXC
  14. 79'
    Subst
    Jens Toornstra · assist Joshua Kitolano
    SPA
  15. 86'
    Subst
    Adam Carlén · assist Noah Naujoks
    EXC
  16. 86'
    Subst
    Szymon Wlodarczyk · assist Derensili Sanches Fernandes
    EXC
  17. 89'
    Card · Foul
    Patrick van Aanholt
    SPA
  18. 90'+1
    Goal · 2-3
    Milan Zonneveld · assist Tobias Lauritsen
    SPA
  19. 90'+4
    Var
    Milan Zonneveld
    SPA
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
SPARTA ROTTERDAM AVG 7.1
EXCELSIOR AVG 7.1
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
18.0
TOTAL SHOTS
16.0
5.0
ON TARGET
4.0
6.0
OFF TARGET
9.0
7.0
BLOCKED
3.0
POSSESSION
113.0%
POSSESSION %
102.0%
421.0
PASSES
380.0
340.0%
PASS ACCURACY
301.0%
SET PIECES
5.0
CORNERS
2.0
11.0
OFFSIDES
11.0
DISCIPLINE
11.0
FOULS
15.0
4.0
YELLOW CARDS
0.0
1.0
GK SAVES
3.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
SPARTA ROTTERDAM 5 shots
Ayoni Santos
1/2
Tobias Lauritsen
0/1
Julian Baas
0/1
Joshua Kitolano
1/1
EXCELSIOR 6 shots
Lennard Hartjes
0/3
Arthur Zagre
2/2
Noah Naujoks
1/1
⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 63%
37% A
12
EVENTS LOGGED
7
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 4-2-3-1 vs 4-3-3
4-2-3-1
4-3-3
1
JOëL DROM
5
GIANNINO
4
TEO QUINT
3
MARVIN YO
2
SAïD BAKA
6
PELLE CLE
 6.7
8
JOSHUA KI
11
SHUNSUKE
10
VITO VAN
 8.2
7
AYONI SAN
 6.9
9
TOBIAS LA
 6.9
1
STIJN VAN
 7.3
12
ARTHUR ZA
14
LEWIS SCH
4
CASPER WI
3
RICK MEIS
23
IRAKLI YE
 7.2
20
LENNARD H
 7.3
10
NOAH NAUJ
11
GYAN DE R
29
MIKE VAN
30
DERENSILI
SUBSTITUTES · SPARTA ROTTERDAM
21
Jens Toornst...
M
18
Jonathan de...
M
14
Max De Ligt
D
15
Patrick van...
D
12
Shurandy Sam...
D
20
Filip Bednar...
G
30
Pascal Kuipe...
G
19
Milan Zonnev...
F
16
Julian Baas
M
17
Casper Terho
F
COACH: Maurice Steijn
SUBSTITUTES · EXCELSIOR
9
Szymon Włoda...
F
8
Mathijs Tiel...
M
34
Noa el Hamda...
M
6
Adam Carlén
M
15
Simon Jansse...
D
24
Giuliano Cai...
M
2
Ilias Bronkh...
D
16
Calvin Raats...
G
33
Jerolldino B...
F
COACH: Ruben den Uil
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
SPA · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

EXC · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
Allard Lindhout, Netherlands
—
SPA MANAGER
Maurice Steijn
head coach
EXC MANAGER
Ruben den Uil
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
5
SPA WINS
1
DRAWS
4
EXC WINS
50%
10%
40%
21 – 15
TOTAL GOALS · 10 MEETINGS
3.60
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 5 / 10
14 Sep 2025
Excelsior
0 – 1
Sparta Rotterdam
W
17 Feb 2024
Sparta Rotterdam
4 – 2
Excelsior
W
01 Oct 2023
Excelsior
2 – 1
Sparta Rotterdam
L
05 Mar 2023
Excelsior
1 – 4
Sparta Rotterdam
W
14 Jan 2023
Sparta Rotterdam
1 – 0
Excelsior
W
SPARTA ROTTERDAM LAST 5 OVERALL
L D L L D
EXCELSIOR LAST 5 OVERALL
D W W D L
MATCH IMPACT Final 2–3 · result locked
SPARTA ROTTERDAM #10
Lost · already at 43 pts
EXCELSIOR #13
Won · already at 38 pts
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 PSV Eindhoven 34 27 3 4 +56 84
W W D W W
2 Feyenoord 34 19 8 7 +26 65
W D W W D
3 NEC Nijmegen 34 16 11 7 +24 59
W L D D D
4 Twente 34 15 13 6 +19 58
L W D D W
5 Ajax 34 14 14 6 +21 56
D L D W W
6 Utrecht 34 15 8 11 +13 53
W W W L W
7 AZ Alkmaar 34 14 10 10 +7 52
D D D D W
8 Heerenveen 34 14 9 11 +4 51
D L W W L
9 Groningen 34 14 6 14 +4 48
W W L L D
10 Sparta Rotterdam 34 12 7 15 -22 43
L L D L L
11 Fortuna Sittard 34 11 6 17 -14 39
L W L L D
12 GO Ahead Eagles 34 8 14 12 +1 38
L L D D D
13 Excelsior 34 10 8 16 -13 38
W D W W D
14 Telstar 34 9 10 15 -6 37
W W D W L
15 PEC Zwolle 34 9 10 15 -27 37
L L W L D
16 FC Volendam 34 8 8 18 -20 32
L D L W L
17 NAC Breda 34 6 11 17 -23 29
D W L L D
18 Heracles 34 5 4 25 -50 19
L L L L L
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 90'+4
    Var · Milan Zonneveld
    Goal disallowed
  • 90'+1
    Goal · 2-3 · Milan Zonneveld
    4th Goal
  • 89'
    Card · Foul · Patrick van Aanholt
    4th Yellowcard
  • 86'
    Subst · Szymon Wlodarczyk
    9th Substitution
  • 86'
    Subst · Adam Carlén
    8th Substitution
  • 79'
    Subst · Jens Toornstra
    7th Substitution
  • 75'
    Subst · Jerolldino Bergraaf
    6th Substitution
  • 71'
    Subst · Jonathan de Guzmán
    5th Substitution
  • 71'
    Card · Foul · Teo Quintero
    3rd Yellowcard
  • 71'
    Subst · Patrick van Aanholt
    4th Substitution
  • 64'
    Subst · Ilias Bronkhorst
    3rd Substitution
  • 62'
    Goal · 1-3 · Noah Naujoks
    3rd Goal
  • 54'
    Card · Foul · Julian Baas
    2nd Yellowcard
  • 53'
    Goal · 1-2 · Ayoni Santos
    2nd Goal
  • 50'
    Goal · 0-2 · Arthur Zagré
    1st Goal
  • 46'
    Subst · Julian Baas
    1st Substitution
  • 46'
    Subst · Milan Zonneveld
    2nd Substitution
  • HALF TIME · 0 – 1
  • 40'
    Card · Foul · Vito van Crooij
    1st Yellowcard
  • 14'
    Goal · 0-1 · Giannino Vianello
    1st Own Goal
13 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 13 BOOKMAKERS
SPARTA ROTTERDAM WIN
2.00
50% implied
↑ best 2.08
DRAW
3.81
26.2% implied
↑ best 4.00
EXCELSIOR WIN
3.31
30.2% implied
↑ best 3.52

Market favors Sparta Rotterdam. AI projects EXCELSIOR 93% · value bet Over 2.5.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS EXCELSIOR 93% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 1.97 4.00 3.20 +61.8%
1xBet 2.01 3.85 3.52 +64.6%
888Sport 1.95 3.60 3.30 +62.7%
Bet365 2.00 3.80 3.40 +63.6%
Betano 2.07 3.80 3.30 +62.7%
Betfair 1.95 3.80 3.30 +62.7%
BetVictor 2.00 4.00 3.30 +62.7%
Dafabet 2.05 4.00 3.35 +63.1%
Marathonbet 2.02 3.72 3.24 +62.1%
Pinnacle 2.08 3.93 3.29 +62.6%
SBO 1.99 3.68 3.19 +61.7%
Unibet 1.91 3.85 3.45 +64.0%
William Hill 2.00 3.50 3.20 +61.8%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.13 U 5.37
2.5 O 1.46 U 2.57
3.5 O 2.19 U 1.65
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.42 10 bks
NO
2.63 10 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 2.07
Away -0.5 1.81
Away -0.75 1.61
Away -1 1.42
Away -1.25 1.35
Away -1.5 1.29
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.