GOALSENSE
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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 1–1 · HEERENVEEN 39% · Value: Over 2.5 62%
CONF 54 FULL ANALYSIS →
Eredivisie · REGULAR SEASON - 34 · SUN, 17 MAY · 12:30 LOCAL
HEERENVEEN
8TH · 51 PTS · LAST 5:
L W W L W
FT
0 – 0
FULL TIME HT · 0-0
AJAX
L D W W L
· 5TH · 56 PTS · LAST 5
Joris van Overeem
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Joris van Overeem
Heerenveen · Captain · 93 mins
· 55% pass acc
RATING
8.7
PREDICTIONS
▶ MATCH HIGHLIGHTS

Goals, key moments & recap 2 CLIPS

powered by Highlightly
Eredivisie: Heerenveen vs Ajax
Open in Youtube ↗
Óscar García over PENALTYMOMENT & KEUZE om DO…
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

116%
BALL POSSESSION %
105%
16
TOTAL SHOTS
22
5
SHOTS ON TARGET
6
474%
PASS ACCURACY %
429%
10
CORNERS
6
KEY EVENTS 11 events
  1. 26'
    Card · Foul
    Jorthy Mokio
    AJA
  2. 58'
    Card · Foul
    Lucas Rosa
    AJA
  3. 69'
    Subst
    Rayane Bounida · assist Steven Berghuis
    AJA
  4. 69'
    Subst
    Youri Regeer · assist Davy Klaassen
    AJA
  5. 70'
    Card · Foul
    Youri Regeer
    AJA
  6. 75'
    Subst
    Hristiyan Petrov · assist Vasilios Zagaritis
    HEE
  7. 79'
    Subst
    Kasper Dolberg · assist Sean Steur
    AJA
  8. 84'
    Subst
    Luuk Brouwers · assist Ringo Meerveld
    HEE
  9. 84'
    Subst
    Eser Gürbüz · assist Luca Oyen
    HEE
  10. 84'
    Subst
    Lasse Nordås · assist Dylan Vente
    HEE
  11. 85'
    Subst
    Maher Carrizo · assist Mika Godts
    AJA
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
HEERENVEEN AVG 8.0
AJAX AVG 7.7
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
16.0
TOTAL SHOTS
22.0
5.0
ON TARGET
6.0
6.0
OFF TARGET
10.0
5.0
BLOCKED
6.0
POSSESSION
116.0%
POSSESSION %
105.0%
560.0
PASSES
497.0
474.0%
PASS ACCURACY
429.0%
SET PIECES
10.0
CORNERS
6.0
20.0
OFFSIDES
19.0
DISCIPLINE
9.0
FOULS
8.0
0.0
YELLOW CARDS
3.0
6.0
GK SAVES
4.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
HEERENVEEN 1 shots
Oliver Braude
0/1
AJAX 6 shots
Sean Steur
2/4
Steven Berghuis
0/2
⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 36%
64% A
4
EVENTS LOGGED
7
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 4-2-3-1 vs 4-3-3
4-2-3-1
4-3-3
8.2
22
BERNT KLA
19
VASILIOS
3
MAAS WILL
 8.2
4
SAM KERST
 7.5
45
OLIVER BR
 8.7
6
JORIS VAN
 7.5
16
MARCUS LI
11
LUCA OYEN
10
RINGO MEE
20
JACOB TRE
9
DYLAN VEN
26
MAARTEN P
2
LUCAS ROS
15
YOURI BAA
 7.9
4
KO ITAKUR
3
ANTON GAA
 7.7
18
DAVY KLAA
24
JORTHY MO
 7.6
48
SEAN STEU
11
MIKA GODT
25
WOUT WEGH
 8.0
23
STEVEN BE
SUBSTITUTES · HEERENVEEN
36
Nolhan Court...
M
35
Isaiah Ahmed
M
50
Eser Gürbüz
F
40
Clayton Bone...
F
17
Nikolai Soys...
D
15
Mats Egbring
D
28
Hristiyan Pe...
D
38
Ingmar Mulde...
D
31
Nordin Bakke...
G
44
Andries Nopp...
G
18
Lasse Selvåg...
F
COACH: Robin Veldman
SUBSTITUTES · AJAX
10
Oscar Gloukh
M
7
Maher Carriz...
F
43
Rayane Bouni...
F
9
Kasper Dolbe...
F
6
Youri Regeer
M
45
Ryan van de...
D
30
Aaron Bouwma...
D
32
Takehiro Tom...
D
50
Marvyn Muzun...
D
58
Valentijn va...
G
52
Paul Reverso...
G
19
Don-Angelo K...
F
COACH: Oscar Garcia Junyent
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
HEE · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

AJA · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
Joey Kooij, Netherlands
—
HEE MANAGER
Robin Veldman
head coach
AJA MANAGER
Oscar Garcia Junyent
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
1
HEE WINS
1
DRAWS
8
AJA WINS
10%
10%
80%
8 – 28
TOTAL GOALS · 10 MEETINGS
3.60
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 5 / 10
01 Nov 2025
Ajax
1 – 1
Heerenveen
D
19 Jan 2025
Heerenveen
0 – 2
Ajax
L
11 Aug 2024
Ajax
1 – 0
Heerenveen
L
11 Feb 2024
Heerenveen
3 – 2
Ajax
W
05 Nov 2023
Ajax
4 – 1
Heerenveen
L
HEERENVEEN LAST 5 OVERALL
L W W L W
AJAX LAST 5 OVERALL
L D W W L
MATCH IMPACT Final 0–0 · result locked
HEERENVEEN #8
Lost · already at 51 pts
Promotion - Eredivisie (Conference League - Play Offs)
AJAX #5
Lost · already at 56 pts
Promotion - Eredivisie (Conference League - Play Offs)
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 PSV Eindhoven 34 27 3 4 +56 84
W W D W W
2 Feyenoord 34 19 8 7 +26 65
W D W W D
3 NEC Nijmegen 34 16 11 7 +24 59
W L D D D
4 Twente 34 15 13 6 +19 58
L W D D W
5 Ajax 34 14 14 6 +21 56
D L D W W
6 Utrecht 34 15 8 11 +13 53
W W W L W
7 AZ Alkmaar 34 14 10 10 +7 52
D D D D W
8 Heerenveen 34 14 9 11 +4 51
D L W W L
9 Groningen 34 14 6 14 +4 48
W W L L D
10 Sparta Rotterdam 34 12 7 15 -22 43
L L D L L
11 Fortuna Sittard 34 11 6 17 -14 39
L W L L D
12 GO Ahead Eagles 34 8 14 12 +1 38
L L D D D
13 Excelsior 34 10 8 16 -13 38
W D W W D
14 Telstar 34 9 10 15 -6 37
W W D W L
15 PEC Zwolle 34 9 10 15 -27 37
L L W L D
16 FC Volendam 34 8 8 18 -20 32
L D L W L
17 NAC Breda 34 6 11 17 -23 29
D W L L D
18 Heracles 34 5 4 25 -50 19
L L L L L
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 85'
    Subst · Maher Carrizo
    8th Substitution
  • 84'
    Subst · Lasse Nordås
    7th Substitution
  • 84'
    Subst · Eser Gürbüz
    6th Substitution
  • 84'
    Subst · Luuk Brouwers
    5th Substitution
  • 79'
    Subst · Kasper Dolberg
    4th Substitution
  • 75'
    Subst · Hristiyan Petrov
    3rd Substitution
  • 70'
    Card · Foul · Youri Regeer
    3rd Yellowcard
  • 69'
    Subst · Youri Regeer
    2nd Substitution
  • 69'
    Subst · Rayane Bounida
    1st Substitution
  • 58'
    Card · Foul · Lucas Rosa
    2nd Yellowcard
  • HALF TIME · 0 – 0
  • 26'
    Card · Foul · Jorthy Mokio
    1st Yellowcard
13 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 13 BOOKMAKERS
HEERENVEEN WIN
3.22
31.1% implied
↑ best 3.40
DRAW
4.05
24.7% implied
↑ best 4.20
AJAX WIN
1.97
50.8% implied
↑ best 2.06

Market favors Ajax. AI projects HEERENVEEN 39% · value bet Over 2.5.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS HEERENVEEN 39% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 3.25 4.10 1.93 +8.2%
1xBet 3.36 4.16 1.98 +9.2%
888Sport 3.10 3.80 1.95 +6.7%
Bet365 3.40 4.10 1.95 +9.6%
Betano 3.30 4.15 1.98 +8.7%
Betfair 3.10 4.10 1.95 +6.7%
BetVictor 3.25 4.20 2.00 +8.2%
Dafabet 3.25 4.20 2.02 +8.2%
Marathonbet 3.20 3.96 1.97 +7.8%
Pinnacle 3.18 4.16 2.06 +7.6%
SBO 3.08 3.88 1.98 +6.5%
Unibet 3.30 4.00 1.91 +8.7%
William Hill 3.10 3.80 1.95 +6.7%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.07 U 7.27
2.5 O 1.31 U 3.24
3.5 O 1.82 U 1.96
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.31 10 bks
NO
3.18 10 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 1.42
Away -0.5 1.39
Away -0.75 1.23
Away -1 1.12
Away -1.25 1.10
Away -1.5 1.09
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.