GOALSENSE
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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 2–1 · AJAX 48% · Value: Over 2.5 62%
CONF 51 FULL ANALYSIS →
Eredivisie · REGULAR SEASON - 33 · SUN, 10 MAY · 14:45 LOCAL
AJAX
5TH · 55 PTS · LAST 5:
D W W L D
FT
1 – 2
FULL TIME HT · 0-0
UTRECHT
W L W L W
· 7TH · 50 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 84' Wout Weghorst
GOALS
⚽ 81' Niklas Vesterlund ⚽ 90+6' Mike Van der Hoorn
V. Barkas
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
V. Barkas
Utrecht · 90 mins
· 26% pass acc
RATING
7.9
PREDICTIONS
▶ MATCH HIGHLIGHTS

Goals, key moments & recap 2 CLIPS

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Highlights Ajax - FC Utrecht | VriendenLoterij Eredivisie
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Eredivisie: Ajax vs Utrecht
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

64%
BALL POSSESSION %
36%
15
TOTAL SHOTS
14
6
SHOTS ON TARGET
6
88%
PASS ACCURACY %
81%
4
CORNERS
7
KEY EVENTS 16 events
  1. 4'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Steven Berghuis
    AJA
  2. 15'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Jesper Karlsson
    UTR
  3. 38'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Dani De Wit
    UTR
  4. 57'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Kasper Dolberg · assist Wout Weghorst
    AJA
  5. 58'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Oscar Gloukh · assist Davy Klaassen
    AJA
  6. 66'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Mike Eerdhuijzen · assist Nick Viergever
    UTR
  7. 66'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Jesper Karlsson · assist Adrian Blake
    UTR
  8. 73'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Steven Berghuis · assist Rayane Bounida
    AJA
  9. 73'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Youri Regeer · assist Sean Steur
    AJA
  10. 75'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Sébastien Haller · assist D. Min
    UTR
  11. 81'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Niklas Vesterlund · assist G. Zechiël
    UTR
  12. 83'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Jorthy Mokio · assist Oliver Valaker Edvardsen
    AJA
  13. 84'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Wout Weghorst · assist Rayane Bounida
    AJA
  14. 88'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Sean Steur
    AJA
  15. 90'+2
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Yoann Cathline · assist Siebe Horemans
    UTR
  16. 90'+6
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Mike Van der Hoorn · assist S. El Karouani
    UTR
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
AJAX AVG 7.1
UTRECHT AVG 7.6
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
15.0
TOTAL SHOTS
14.0
6.0
ON TARGET
6.0
7.0
OFF TARGET
3.0
2.0
BLOCKED
5.0
POSSESSION
64.0%
POSSESSION %
36.0%
662.0
PASSES
367.0
88.0%
PASS ACCURACY
81.0%
SET PIECES
4.0
CORNERS
7.0
DISCIPLINE
9.0
FOULS
9.0
2.0
YELLOW CARDS
2.0
4.0
GK SAVES
5.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
AJAX 6 shots
Mika Godts
0/3
Wout Weghorst
1/1
Jorthy Mokio
0/1
Rayane Bounida
1/1
UTRECHT 2 shots
Mike Van der Hoorn
1/1
Niklas Vesterlund
1/1
⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 50%
50% A
8
EVENTS LOGGED
8
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 4-3-3 vs 4-2-3-1
4-3-3
4-2-3-1
26
MAARTEN P
2
LUCAS ROS
15
YOURI BAA
 7.0
37
J. ŠUTALO
3
A. GAAEI
 7.0
24
JORTHY MO
10
OSCAR GLO
6
YOURI REG
 7.2
11
MIKA GODT
9
KASPER DO
23
STEVEN BE
 7.9
1
V. BARKAS
 7.3
16
S. EL KAR
44
MIKE EERD
 7.9
3
MIKE VAN
 7.6
23
NIKLAS VE
 7.3
21
G. ZECHIë
27
ALONZO EN
10
YOANN CAT
20
DANI DE W
11
JESPER KA
91
SéBASTIEN
SUBSTITUTES · AJAX
45
Ryan van de...
D
32
Takehiro Tom...
D
4
Ko Itakura
D
7
M. Carrizo
F
30
A. Bouwman
D
52
Paul Reverso...
G
17
Oliver Valak...
F
48
Sean Steur
M
43
Rayane Bouni...
F
18
Davy Klaasse...
M
25
Wout Weghors...
F
19
Don-Angelo K...
F
COACH: Oscar Garcia Junyent
SUBSTITUTES · UTRECHT
5
Emeka Adeile
D
57
Per Klooster...
D
53
Neal Viereck
D
33
Kevin Gadell...
G
51
Mees Eppink
G
2
Siebe Horema...
D
9
D. Min
F
15
Adrian Blake
F
24
Nick Viergev...
D
43
Rafik El Arg...
M
COACH: Ron Jans
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
AJA · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

UTR · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
Jeroen Manschot, Netherlands
—
AJA MANAGER
Oscar Garcia Junyent
head coach
UTR MANAGER
Ron Jans
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
4
AJA WINS
2
DRAWS
4
UTR WINS
40%
20%
40%
16 – 14
TOTAL GOALS · 10 MEETINGS
3.00
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 5 / 10
09 Nov 2025
Utrecht
2 – 1
Ajax
L
20 Apr 2025
Utrecht
4 – 0
Ajax
L
04 Dec 2024
Ajax
2 – 2
Utrecht
D
03 Mar 2024
Ajax
2 – 0
Utrecht
W
22 Oct 2023
Utrecht
4 – 3
Ajax
L
AJAX LAST 5 OVERALL
D W W L D
UTRECHT LAST 5 OVERALL
W L W L W
MATCH IMPACT Final 1–2 · result locked
AJAX #5
Lost · already at 55 pts
Promotion - Eredivisie (Conference League - Play Offs)
UTRECHT #7
Won · already at 50 pts
Promotion - Eredivisie (Conference League - Play Offs)
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 PSV Eindhoven 33 26 3 4 +52 81
W D W W W
2 Feyenoord 33 18 8 7 +24 62
D W W D D
3 Twente 33 15 13 5 +23 58
W D D W W
4 NEC Nijmegen 33 15 11 7 +23 56
L D D D W
5 Ajax 33 14 13 6 +21 55
L D W W L
6 AZ Alkmaar 33 14 9 10 +7 51
D D D W W
7 Utrecht 33 14 8 11 +11 50
W W L W L
8 Heerenveen 33 14 8 11 +4 50
L W W L W
9 Groningen 33 13 6 14 +3 45
W L L D W
10 Sparta Rotterdam 33 12 7 14 -21 43
L D L L D
11 Fortuna Sittard 33 11 6 16 -12 39
W L L D L
12 GO Ahead Eagles 33 8 14 11 +2 38
L D D D W
13 PEC Zwolle 33 9 10 14 -25 37
L W L D L
14 Excelsior 33 9 8 16 -14 35
D W W D L
15 Telstar 33 8 10 15 -7 34
W D W L L
16 FC Volendam 33 8 8 17 -19 32
D L W L D
17 NAC Breda 33 6 10 17 -23 28
W L L D D
18 Heracles 33 5 4 24 -49 19
L L L L L
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 90'+6
    Goal · Normal Goal · Mike Van der Hoorn
  • 90'+2
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Yoann Cathline
  • 88'
    Card · Yellow Card · Sean Steur
    Tripping
  • 84'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Wout Weghorst
  • 83'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Jorthy Mokio
  • 81'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Niklas Vesterlund
  • 75'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Sébastien Haller
  • 73'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Youri Regeer
  • 73'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Steven Berghuis
  • 66'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Jesper Karlsson
  • 66'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Mike Eerdhuijzen
  • 58'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Oscar Gloukh
  • 57'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Kasper Dolberg
  • HALF TIME · 0 – 0
  • 38'
    Card · Yellow Card · Dani De Wit
    Tripping
  • 15'
    Card · Yellow Card · Jesper Karlsson
    Roughing
  • 4'
    Card · Yellow Card · Steven Berghuis
    Roughing
13 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 13 BOOKMAKERS
AJAX WIN
1.58
63.3% implied
↑ best 1.65
DRAW
4.31
23.2% implied
↑ best 4.50
UTRECHT WIN
5.03
19.9% implied
↑ best 5.30

Market favors Ajax. AI projects AJAX 48% · value bet Over 2.5.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS AJAX 48% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 1.65 4.33 4.30 +4.9%
1xBet 1.60 4.42 5.29 +5.4%
888Sport 1.57 4.00 4.80 +3.2%
Bet365 1.57 4.33 5.25 +5.0%
Betano 1.62 4.50 5.30 +5.8%
Betfair 1.57 4.20 5.00 +4.2%
BetVictor 1.55 4.33 5.25 +5.0%
Dafabet 1.61 4.50 5.00 +5.8%
Marathonbet 1.55 4.30 5.15 +4.7%
Pinnacle 1.59 4.50 5.21 +5.8%
SBO 1.56 4.22 4.84 +4.3%
Unibet 1.56 4.35 5.20 +5.0%
William Hill 1.57 4.00 4.80 +3.2%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.13 U 5.43
2.5 O 1.47 U 2.57
3.5 O 2.22 U 1.65
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.52 10 bks
NO
2.39 10 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 2.82
Away -0.5 2.33
Away -0.75 2.11
Away -1 1.85
Away -1.25 1.65
Away -1.5 1.52
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.