GOALSENSE
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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 1–1 · AC MILAN 46%
CONF 52 FULL ANALYSIS →
Serie A · REGULAR SEASON - 36 · SUN, 10 MAY · 18:45 LOCAL
AC MILAN
4TH · 67 PTS · LAST 5:
L D W L L
FT
2 – 3
FULL TIME HT · 0-2
ATALANTA
D L D L W
· 7TH · 58 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 88' Strahinja Pavlović ⚽ 90+4' Christopher Nkunku (P)
GOALS
⚽ 7' Éderson ⚽ 29' Davide Zappacosta ⚽ 52' Giacomo Raspadori
Marco Carnesecchi
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Marco Carnesecchi
Atalanta · 90 mins
· 19% pass acc
RATING
8.7
PREDICTIONS
▶ MATCH HIGHLIGHTS

Goals, key moments & recap 5 CLIPS

powered by Highlightly
Serie A: AC Milan vs Atalanta
Open in Youtube ↗
La Dea Trionfa a San Siro | MILAN-ATALANTA 2-3 | …
Pavlović e Nkunku segnano nel finale ma non basta…
Partita FOLLE a SAN SIRO: Milan-Atalanta 2-3 | Se…
Serie A: AC Milan vs Atalanta
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

1.94
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
1.08
57%
BALL POSSESSION %
43%
20
TOTAL SHOTS
9
9
SHOTS ON TARGET
5
88%
PASS ACCURACY %
80%
2
CORNERS
2
KEY EVENTS 20 events
  1. 7'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Éderson
    ATA
  2. 29'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Davide Zappacosta · assist Nikola Krstović
    ATA
  3. 34'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Rafael Leão
    AC
  4. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Ruben Loftus-Cheek · assist Christopher Nkunku
    AC
  5. 48'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Giorgio Scalvini · assist Odilon Kossounou
    ATA
  6. 52'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Giacomo Raspadori · assist Éderson
    ATA
  7. 55'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Davide Zappacosta · assist Raoul Bellanova
    ATA
  8. 58'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Rafael Leão · assist Youssouf Fofana
    AC
  9. 58'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Santiago Giménez · assist Niclas Füllkrug
    AC
  10. 58'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Koni De Winter · assist Zachary Athekame
    AC
  11. 63'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Odilon Kossounou · assist H. Ahanor
    ATA
  12. 63'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Charles De Ketelaere · assist Mario Pašalić
    ATA
  13. 70'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Isak Hien
    ATA
  14. 80'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Davide Bartesaghi · assist Pervis Estupiñán
    AC
  15. 88'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Strahinja Pavlović · assist Samuele Ricci
    AC
  16. 90'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Pervis Estupiñán
    AC
  17. 90'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Alexis Saelemaekers
    AC
  18. 90'+4
    Goal · Penalty
    Christopher Nkunku
    AC
  19. 90'+5
    Card · Yellow Card
    Nikola Krstović
    ATA
  20. 90'+6
    Card · Yellow Card
    Raoul Bellanova
    ATA
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
AC MILAN AVG 7.5
ATALANTA AVG 7.7
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
1.9
xG
1.1
20.0
TOTAL SHOTS
9.0
9.0
ON TARGET
5.0
8.0
OFF TARGET
2.0
3.0
BLOCKED
2.0
POSSESSION
57.0%
POSSESSION %
43.0%
541.0
PASSES
411.0
88.0%
PASS ACCURACY
80.0%
SET PIECES
2.0
CORNERS
2.0
2.0
OFFSIDES
2.0
DISCIPLINE
8.0
FOULS
17.0
4.0
YELLOW CARDS
3.0
2.0
GK SAVES
8.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
AC MILAN 7 shots
Christopher Nkunku
3/4
Strahinja Pavlović
1/2
Zachary Athekame
1/1
ATALANTA 4 shots
Giacomo Raspadori
1/2
Éderson
1/1
Davide Zappacosta
1/1
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 1.94 – 1.08
1.6 1.2 0.8 0.4 1.9 0.0 HT 88' 90' 7' 29' 52' H 1.94 A 1.08 KO 30' 60' FT

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 50%
50% A
10
EVENTS LOGGED
10
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 3-5-2 vs 3-4-2-1
3-5-2
3-4-2-1
16
MIKE MAIG
 7.3
31
STRAHINJA
46
MATTEO GA
5
KONI DE W
33
DAVIDE BA
12
ADRIEN RA
 7.6
4
SAMUELE R
8
RUBEN LOF
56
ALEXIS SA
10
RAFAEL LE
7
SANTIAGO
 8.7
29
MARCO CAR
23
SEAD KOLA
 6.9
4
ISAK HIEN
42
GIORGIO S
59
NICOLA ZA
 8.2
13
ÉDERSON
15
M. DE ROO
 7.2
77
DAVIDE ZA
 7.3
18
GIACOMO R
17
CHARLES D
90
NIKOLA KR
SUBSTITUTES · AC MILAN
30
Ardon Jashar...
M
2
Pervis Estup...
D
19
Youssouf Fof...
M
27
David Odogu
D
24
Zachary Athe...
D
1
Pietro Terra...
G
37
Matteo Pitta...
G
18
Christopher...
F
9
Niclas Füllk...
F
COACH: Massimiliano Allegri
SUBSTITUTES · ATALANTA
10
Lazar Samard...
M
8
Mario Pašali...
M
6
Yunus Musah
M
9
Gianluca Sca...
F
7
K. Sulemana
F
5
Mitchel Bakk...
D
40
Relja Obrić
D
69
H. Ahanor
D
57
Marco Sporti...
G
31
F. Rossi
G
16
Raoul Bellan...
D
3
Odilon Kosso...
D
45
Dominic Vava...
F
COACH: Raffaele Palladino
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
AC · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

ATA · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
Luca Zufferli, Italy
—
AC MANAGER
Massimiliano Allegri
head coach
ATA MANAGER
Raffaele Palladino
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
3
AC WINS
3
DRAWS
4
ATA WINS
30%
30%
40%
14 – 13
TOTAL GOALS · 10 MEETINGS
2.70
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 5 / 10
28 Oct 2025
Atalanta
1 – 1
AC Milan
D
20 Apr 2025
AC Milan
0 – 1
Atalanta
L
06 Dec 2024
Atalanta
2 – 1
AC Milan
L
25 Feb 2024
AC Milan
1 – 1
Atalanta
D
10 Jan 2024
AC Milan
1 – 2
Atalanta
L
AC MILAN LAST 5 OVERALL
L D W L L
ATALANTA LAST 5 OVERALL
D L D L W
MATCH IMPACT Final 2–3 · result locked
AC MILAN #4
Lost · already at 67 pts
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
ATALANTA #7
Won · already at 58 pts
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 Inter 36 27 4 5 +54 85
W W D W W
2 Napoli 36 21 7 8 +18 70
L D W L D
3 Juventus 36 19 11 6 +29 68
W D D W W
4 AC Milan 36 19 10 7 +18 67
L L D W L
5 AS Roma 36 21 4 11 +24 67
W W W D W
6 Como 36 18 11 7 +32 65
W D W L L
7 Atalanta 36 15 13 8 +16 58
W D L D L
8 Bologna 36 15 7 14 +2 52
W D L L W
9 Lazio 36 13 12 11 +2 51
L W D W L
10 Udinese 36 14 8 14 -1 50
W W D L W
11 Sassuolo 36 14 7 15 -2 49
L W D W L
12 Torino 36 12 8 16 -18 44
W L D D W
13 Parma 36 10 12 14 -18 42
L L W W D
14 Genoa 36 10 11 15 -8 41
D D L W W
15 Fiorentina 36 8 14 14 -11 38
D L D D W
16 Cagliari 36 9 10 17 -15 37
L D W L W
17 Lecce 36 8 8 20 -24 32
L W D D L
18 Cremonese 36 7 10 19 -23 31
W L L D L
19 Hellas Verona 36 3 11 22 -34 20
L D D L L
20 Pisa 36 2 12 22 -41 18
L L L L L
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 90'+6
    Card · Yellow Card · Raoul Bellanova
    Roughing
  • 90'+5
    Card · Yellow Card · Nikola Krstović
    Unsportsmanlike conduct
  • 90'+4
    Goal · Penalty · Christopher Nkunku
  • 90'
    Card · Yellow Card · Alexis Saelemaekers
    misses next match
  • 90'
    Card · Yellow Card · Pervis Estupiñán
  • 88'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Strahinja Pavlović
  • 80'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Davide Bartesaghi
  • 70'
    Card · Yellow Card · Isak Hien
  • 63'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Charles De Ketelaere
  • 63'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Odilon Kossounou
  • 58'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Koni De Winter
  • 58'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Santiago Giménez
  • 58'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Rafael Leão
  • 55'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Davide Zappacosta
  • 52'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Giacomo Raspadori
  • 48'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Giorgio Scalvini
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Ruben Loftus-Cheek
  • HALF TIME · 0 – 2
  • 34'
    Card · Yellow Card · Rafael Leão
  • 29'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Davide Zappacosta
  • 7'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Éderson
13 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 13 BOOKMAKERS
AC MILAN WIN
2.20
45.5% implied
↑ best 2.34
DRAW
3.29
30.4% implied
↑ best 3.45
ATALANTA WIN
3.38
29.6% implied
↑ best 3.65

Market favors AC Milan. AI projects AC MILAN 46%.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS AC MILAN 46% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 2.12 3.30 3.35 -1.2%
1xBet 2.34 3.33 3.48 +3.3%
888Sport 2.10 3.10 3.40 -1.6%
Bet365 2.25 3.20 3.30 +1.6%
Betano 2.22 3.40 3.25 +1.0%
Betfair 2.10 3.30 3.50 -1.6%
BetVictor 2.15 3.25 3.50 -0.5%
Dafabet 2.11 3.45 3.65 -1.0%
Marathonbet 2.29 3.32 3.40 +2.3%
Pinnacle 2.29 3.36 3.40 +2.3%
SBO 2.28 3.13 3.11 +2.1%
Unibet 2.12 3.35 3.45 -1.2%
William Hill 2.25 3.25 3.10 +1.6%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.28 U 3.56
2.5 O 1.92 U 1.90
3.5 O 3.18 U 1.34
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.69 10 bks
NO
2.08 10 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 1.93
Away -0.5 1.68
Away -0.75 1.49
Away -1 1.30
Away -1.25 1.26
Away -1.5 1.22
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.