GOALSENSE
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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 2–0 · GUIMARAES 98%
CONF 89 FULL ANALYSIS →
Primeira Liga · REGULAR SEASON - 31 · SAT 25 APR · 19:30 LOCAL
GUIMARAES
7TH · 42 PTS · LAST 5:
W D W L L
FT
2 – 0
FULL TIME HT · 0-0
RIO AVE
D W L W W
· 12TH · 34 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 72' Samu ⚽ 90+5' Tony Strata
GOALS
Tony Strata
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Tony Strata
Guimaraes · 32 mins
⚽ 1 goal · 12% pass acc · 1 shots on
RATING
8.2
PREDICTIONS
▶ MATCH HIGHLIGHTS

Goals, key moments & recap

awaiting upload
Goals, key moments, post-match interviews
Highlightly publishes 30 min – 6 h after final whistle
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

1.46
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
0.45
56%
BALL POSSESSION %
44%
11
TOTAL SHOTS
5
3
SHOTS ON TARGET
4
81%
PASS ACCURACY %
77%
3
CORNERS
5
KEY EVENTS 20 events
  1. 28'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Andreas Ndoj
    RIO
  2. 57'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Gustavo Silva
    GUI
  3. 58'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Miguel Maga · assist Tony Strata
    GUI
  4. 58'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Diogo Sousa · assist Gonçalo Nogueira
    GUI
  5. 58'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Oumar Camara · assist Miguel Nogueira
    GUI
  6. 60'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Gustavo Mancha
    RIO
  7. 61'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Tamás Nikitscher
    RIO
  8. 62'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Thiago Balieiro
    GUI
  9. 68'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Noah Saviolo · assist Telmo Arcanjo
    GUI
  10. 69'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Dario Špikić · assist João Tomé
    RIO
  11. 69'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Ole Pohlmann · assist Ryan Guilherme
    RIO
  12. 72'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Samu · assist Gustavo Silva
    GUI
  13. 77'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Nelson Abbey · assist Omar Richards
    RIO
  14. 77'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Tamás Nikitscher · assist Tamblé Monteiro
    RIO
  15. 79'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Diogo Bezerra
    RIO
  16. 80'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Samu
    GUI
  17. 81'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Gustavo Silva · assist Nélson Oliveira
    GUI
  18. 86'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Diogo Bezerra · assist Rafael Lobato
    RIO
  19. 90'+3
    Card · Yellow Card
    Tony Strata
    GUI
  20. 90'+5
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Tony Strata · assist Beni Mukendi
    GUI
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
GUIMARAES AVG 7.6
RIO AVE AVG 6.8
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
1.5
xG
0.5
11.0
TOTAL SHOTS
5.0
3.0
ON TARGET
4.0
5.0
OFF TARGET
0.0
3.0
BLOCKED
1.0
POSSESSION
56.0%
POSSESSION %
44.0%
487.0
PASSES
382.0
81.0%
PASS ACCURACY
77.0%
SET PIECES
3.0
CORNERS
5.0
1.0
OFFSIDES
2.0
DISCIPLINE
7.0
FOULS
13.0
4.0
YELLOW CARDS
4.0
4.0
GK SAVES
1.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
GUIMARAES 4 shots
Samu
2/3
Tony Strata
1/1
RIO AVE 1 shots
Ole Pohlmann
1/1
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 1.46 – 0.45
1.2 0.9 0.6 0.3 1.5 0.0 HT 72' 90' H 1.46 A 0.45 KO 30' 60' FT

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 55%
45% A
11
EVENTS LOGGED
9
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 4-2-3-1 vs 4-2-3-1
4-2-3-1
4-2-3-1
27
CHARLES
13
JOãO MEND
 7.3
28
THIAGO BA
4
ÓSCAR RIV
 7.3
2
MIGUEL MA
23
DIOGO SOU
16
BENI MUKE
48
NOAH SAVI
 7.7
20
SAMU
19
OUMAR CAM
11
GUSTAVO S
1
CEZARY MI
32
JAKUB BRA
17
MARIOS VR
 7.0
6
NELSON AB
 6.9
39
GUSTAVO M
44
TAMáS NIK
5
ANDREAS N
18
DARIO SPI
80
OLE POHLM
7
DIOGO BEZ
11
JALEN BLE
SUBSTITUTES · GUIMARAES
26
Rodrigo Abas...
D
17
Orest Lebede...
D
25
Juan Castill...
G
7
Nélson Olive...
F
18
Telmo Arcanj...
M
88
Miguel Nogue...
M
30
Gonçalo Nogu...
M
66
Tony Strata
D
6
Matija Mitro...
M
COACH: Gil Lameiras
SUBSTITUTES · RIO AVE
77
Omar Richard...
D
63
Julien Lombo...
D
54
Georgios Lia...
M
25
Rafael Lobat...
F
23
Francisco Pe...
D
20
João Tomé
D
9
Tamblé Monte...
F
8
Ryan
M
99
Ennio Van De...
G
COACH: Sotiris Sylaidopoulos
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
GUI · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

RIO · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
David Rafael Oliveira da Silva, Portugal
—
GUI MANAGER
Gil Lameiras
head coach
RIO MANAGER
Sotiris Sylaidopoulos
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
4
GUI WINS
4
DRAWS
2
RIO WINS
40%
40%
20%
11 – 8
TOTAL GOALS · 10 MEETINGS
1.90
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 5 / 10
13 Dec 25
Rio Ave
0 – 1
Guimaraes
W
27 Apr 25
Guimaraes
3 – 0
Rio Ave
W
16 Dec 24
Rio Ave
2 – 2
Guimaraes
D
04 May 24
Rio Ave
2 – 1
Guimaraes
L
23 Dec 23
Guimaraes
1 – 0
Rio Ave
W
GUIMARAES LAST 5 OVERALL
W D W L L
RIO AVE LAST 5 OVERALL
D W L W W
MATCH IMPACT Final 2–0 · result locked
GUIMARAES #7
Won · already at 42 pts
RIO AVE #12
Lost · already at 34 pts
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 FC Porto 31 26 4 1 +48 82
W W W D W
2 Benfica 31 22 9 0 +47 75
W W W D W
3 Sporting CP 30 22 6 2 +55 72
D L W W W
4 SC Braga 31 16 8 7 +28 56
L W D W W
5 Famalicao 31 14 9 8 +12 51
W D D D W
6 GIL Vicente 30 12 10 8 +13 46
L D W L D
7 Guimaraes 31 12 6 13 -5 42
W W D W L
8 Moreirense 31 11 6 14 -11 39
L W D L L
9 Alverca 31 10 8 13 -15 38
W L W W L
10 Estoril 31 10 7 14 -1 37
L L L L L
11 Arouca 31 10 5 16 -21 35
L W L W W
12 Rio Ave 31 8 10 13 -19 34
L D W L W
13 Santa Clara 31 8 8 15 -10 32
W D L L W
14 Nacional 31 8 7 16 -7 31
W W L W L
15 Estrela 31 6 10 15 -17 28
L L L L W
16 Casa Pia 30 5 11 14 -25 26
L D L D L
17 Tondela 30 4 9 17 -29 21
L L D L D
18 AVS 31 1 11 19 -43 14
D D D L D
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 90'+5
    Goal · Normal Goal · Tony Strata
  • 90'+3
    Card · Yellow Card · Tony Strata
  • 86'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Diogo Bezerra
  • 81'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Gustavo Silva
  • 80'
    Card · Yellow Card · Samu
  • 79'
    Card · Yellow Card · Diogo Bezerra
  • 77'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Tamás Nikitscher
  • 77'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Nelson Abbey
  • 72'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Samu
  • 69'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Ole Pohlmann
  • 69'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Dario Špikić
  • 68'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Noah Saviolo
  • 62'
    Card · Yellow Card · Thiago Balieiro
  • 61'
    Card · Yellow Card · Tamás Nikitscher
  • 60'
    Card · Yellow Card · Gustavo Mancha
  • 58'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Oumar Camara
  • 58'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Diogo Sousa
  • 58'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Miguel Maga
  • 57'
    Card · Yellow Card · Gustavo Silva
  • HALF TIME · 0 – 0
  • 28'
    Card · Yellow Card · Andreas Ndoj
    misses next match
22 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 22 BOOKMAKERS
GUIMARAES WIN
1.69
59.2% implied
↑ best 1.81
DRAW
3.65
27.4% implied
↑ best 4.00
RIO AVE WIN
4.86
20.6% implied
↑ best 5.44

Market favors Guimaraes. AI projects GUIMARAES 98%.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS GUIMARAES 98% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 1.69 3.65 4.85 +38.8%
10Bet 1.73 3.65 4.60 +40.2%
1xbet 1.72 3.73 5.44 +39.9%
1xBet 1.81 3.60 4.99 +42.8%
888Sport 1.67 3.75 4.60 +38.1%
888Sport 1.73 3.70 4.40 +40.2%
Bet365 1.73 3.50 5.00 +40.2%
Betano 1.75 3.50 5.20 +40.9%
Betfair 1.67 4.00 4.50 +38.1%
Betfair 1.70 3.60 5.00 +39.2%
Betsson 1.65 3.65 4.60 +37.4%
BetVictor 1.67 3.60 4.50 +38.1%
bwin 1.68 3.70 4.80 +38.5%
Cashpoint 1.67 3.48 4.68 +38.1%
CloudBet 1.69 3.35 5.35 +38.8%
Coral 1.73 3.60 5.00 +40.2%
Dafabet 1.71 3.75 5.20 +39.5%
Dafabet 1.76 3.70 5.00 +41.2%
HKJC 1.58 3.65 4.40 +34.7%
Interwetten 1.70 3.70 5.25 +39.2%
Ladbrokes 1.70 3.75 5.00 +39.2%
MansionBet 1.75 3.50 4.50 +40.9%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.24 U 3.73
2.5 O 1.82 U 1.97
3.5 O 2.94 U 1.36
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.75 16 bks
NO
1.99 16 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 2.49
Away -0.5 2.09
Away -0.75 1.86
Away -1 1.60
Away -1.25 1.47
Away -1.5 1.37
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.