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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 1–1 · FC CINCINNATI 38%
CONF 18 FULL ANALYSIS →
Major League Soccer · REGULAR SEASON - 10 · SAT 25 APR · 23:30 LOCAL
FC CINCINNATI
9TH · 12 PTS · LAST 5:
D D L W W
FT
2 – 0
FULL TIME HT · 2-0
NEW YORK RED BULLS
D L W L L
· 11TH · 12 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 40' Kévin Denkey ⚽ 45+5' Kévin Denkey (P)
GOALS
Evander
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Evander
FC Cincinnati · Captain · 90 mins
· 29% pass acc · 2 shots on
RATING
8.9
PREDICTIONS
▶ MATCH HIGHLIGHTS

Goals, key moments & recap 3 CLIPS

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Major League Soccer: FC Cincinnati vs New York Red Bulls
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📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

2.86
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
1.44
48%
BALL POSSESSION %
52%
15
TOTAL SHOTS
19
5
SHOTS ON TARGET
6
85%
PASS ACCURACY %
87%
4
CORNERS
7
KEY EVENTS 15 events
  1. 18'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Joyeux Masanka Bungi
    NEW
  2. 31'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Bryan Ramirez
    FC
  3. 40'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Kévin Denkey · assist Pavel Bucha
    FC
  4. 45'+5
    Goal · Penalty
    Kévin Denkey
    FC
  5. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Joyeux Masanka Bungi · assist Matthew Dos Santos
    NEW
  6. 61'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Kenji Mboma Dem · assist Tom Barlow
    FC
  7. 61'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Pavel Bucha · assist Ender Echenique
    FC
  8. 62'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Gustav Berggren · assist Emil Forsberg
    NEW
  9. 62'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Mohammed Sofo · assist Jorge Ruvalcaba
    NEW
  10. 73'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Cade Cowell · assist Rafael Mosquera
    NEW
  11. 78'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Adri Mehmeti
    NEW
  12. 79'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Bryan Ramirez · assist Ayoub Lajhar
    FC
  13. 79'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Kévin Denkey · assist Ayoub Jabbari
    FC
  14. 85'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Ronald Donkor · assist Nehuen Benedetti
    NEW
  15. 89'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Kyle Smith · assist Gilberto Flores
    FC
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
FC CINCINNATI AVG 8.2
NEW YORK RED BULLS AVG 7.3
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
2.9
xG
1.4
15.0
TOTAL SHOTS
19.0
5.0
ON TARGET
6.0
7.0
OFF TARGET
10.0
3.0
BLOCKED
3.0
POSSESSION
48.0%
POSSESSION %
52.0%
463.0
PASSES
476.0
85.0%
PASS ACCURACY
87.0%
SET PIECES
4.0
CORNERS
7.0
DISCIPLINE
9.0
FOULS
15.0
1.0
YELLOW CARDS
2.0
6.0
GK SAVES
3.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
FC CINCINNATI 7 shots
Evander
2/4
Kévin Denkey
2/3
NEW YORK RED BULLS 4 shots
Emil Forsberg
2/3
Matthew Dos Santos
0/1
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 2.86 – 1.44
2.3 1.7 1.1 0.6 2.9 0.0 HT 40' 45' H 2.86 A 1.44 KO 30' 60' FT

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 53%
47% A
8
EVENTS LOGGED
7
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 3-4-1-2 vs 4-3-3
3-4-1-2
4-3-3
7.9
18
ROMAN CEL
 7.9
11
SAMUEL GI
88
ANDREI CH
24
KYLE SMIT
29
BRYAN RAM
27
TAH ANUNG
22
GERARDO V
 8.2
20
PAVEL BUC
 8.9
10
EVANDER
 8.0
9
KéVIN DEN
17
KENJI MBO
 7.3
34
ETHAN HOR
23
JOYEUX MA
26
TIM PARKE
 7.7
12
DYLAN NEA
3
JAHKEELE
4
GUSTAV BE
 6.7
15
ADRI MEHM
48
RONALD DO
37
MOHAMMED
16
JULIAN HA
7
CADE COWE
SUBSTITUTES · FC CINCINNATI
37
Stiven Jimen...
M
93
Fabian Mroze...
G
13
Evan Louro
G
3
Gilberto Flo...
D
99
Ayoub Jabbar...
F
55
Ayoub Lajhar
D
16
Tom Barlow
F
66
Ender Echeni...
F
19
Stefan Chiri...
M
COACH: Pat Noonan
SUBSTITUTES · NEW YORK RED BULLS
20
Juan Mina
D
6
Robert Volod...
D
77
John McCarth...
G
39
Nehuen Bened...
M
79
Rafael Mosqu...
F
11
Jorge Ruvalc...
F
10
Emil Forsber...
M
56
Matthew Dos...
D
13
Eric Maxim C...
F
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
FC · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

NEW · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
Fotis Bazakos, USA
—
FC MANAGER
Pat Noonan
head coach
NEW MANAGER
—
unannounced
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
3
FC WINS
2
DRAWS
4
NEW WINS
33.3%
22.2%
44.4%
11 – 12
TOTAL GOALS · 9 MEETINGS
2.56
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 5 / 10
04 Apr 26
New York Red Bulls
4 – 2
FC Cincinnati
L
04 Oct 25
New York Red Bulls
0 – 1
FC Cincinnati
W
23 Feb 25
FC Cincinnati
1 – 0
New York Red Bulls
W
20 Jul 24
New York Red Bulls
3 – 1
FC Cincinnati
L
06 Apr 24
FC Cincinnati
1 – 2
New York Red Bulls
L
FC CINCINNATI LAST 5 OVERALL
D D L W W
NEW YORK RED BULLS LAST 5 OVERALL
D L W L L
MATCH IMPACT Final 2–0 · result locked
FC CINCINNATI #9
Won · already at 12 pts
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)
NEW YORK RED BULLS #11
Lost · already at 12 pts
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 San Jose Earthquakes 10 9 0 1 +19 27
W W W W W
1 Nashville SC 9 7 1 1 +15 22
W W W L W
2 Vancouver Whitecaps 9 8 0 1 +20 24
W W W W L
2 Inter Miami 10 5 4 1 +4 19
D W W D D
3 Los Angeles FC 10 6 2 2 +11 20
W D L L W
3 Chicago Fire 9 5 2 2 +9 17
W D W W W
4 New England Revolution 9 5 1 3 +5 16
D W W W W
4 Seattle Sounders 8 6 1 1 +8 19
W W W D W
5 Minnesota United FC 10 5 2 3 -3 17
L W W W W
5 Charlotte 10 4 2 4 0 14
L L W L W
6 Real Salt Lake 9 5 1 3 +3 16
L L W W D
6 Toronto FC 10 3 4 3 -2 13
L D D D W
7 Colorado Rapids 10 4 1 5 +4 13
L D L W L
7 New York City FC 10 3 3 4 +3 12
L D L L D
8 Columbus Crew 10 3 3 4 +1 12
W W L D W
8 FC Dallas 10 3 4 3 +3 13
L L D D W
9 Houston Dynamo 9 4 0 5 -6 12
L W W L L
9 FC Cincinnati 10 3 3 4 -4 12
W D D D L
10 Los Angeles Galaxy 10 3 3 4 -1 12
W L D W L
10 DC United 10 3 3 4 -4 12
W D D L L
11 San Diego 10 3 2 5 0 11
L L L L L
11 New York Red Bulls 10 3 3 4 -9 12
L D L D W
12 CF Montreal 9 3 0 6 -7 9
W W L L L
12 Portland Timbers 9 3 1 5 -6 10
W L W L D
13 Austin 10 2 4 4 -5 10
W L D L D
13 Atlanta United FC 10 2 1 7 -8 7
W L L L L
14 St. Louis City 9 1 3 5 -7 6
L L D D W
14 Orlando City SC 10 2 1 7 -17 7
L W L D L
15 Sporting Kansas City 9 1 1 7 -18 4
L L L L L
15 Philadelphia Union 10 1 2 7 -8 5
L D D W L
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 89'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Kyle Smith
  • 85'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Ronald Donkor
  • 79'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Kévin Denkey
  • 79'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Bryan Ramirez
  • 78'
    Card · Yellow Card · Adri Mehmeti
  • 73'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Cade Cowell
  • 62'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Mohammed Sofo
  • 62'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Gustav Berggren
  • 61'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Pavel Bucha
  • 61'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Kenji Mboma Dem
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Joyeux Masanka Bungi
  • HALF TIME · 2 – 0
  • 45'+5
    Goal · Penalty · Kévin Denkey
  • 40'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Kévin Denkey
  • 31'
    Card · Yellow Card · Bryan Ramirez
  • 18'
    Card · Yellow Card · Joyeux Masanka Bungi
12 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 12 BOOKMAKERS
FC CINCINNATI WIN
1.79
55.9% implied
↑ best 1.85
DRAW
4.23
23.6% implied
↑ best 4.53
NEW YORK RED BUL WIN
3.66
27.3% implied
↑ best 3.89

Market favors FC Cincinnati. AI projects FC CINCINNATI 38%.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS FC CINCINNATI 38% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 1.81 4.35 3.50 +9.0%
888Sport 1.85 3.75 3.40 +5.3%
Bet365 1.70 4.10 3.60 +7.6%
Betano 1.78 4.40 3.80 +9.3%
Betfair 1.75 4.40 3.75 +9.3%
BetVictor 1.75 4.33 3.75 +8.9%
Dafabet 1.83 4.40 3.75 +9.3%
Marathonbet 1.76 4.25 3.74 +8.5%
Pinnacle 1.79 4.53 3.89 +9.9%
SBO 1.80 4.10 3.49 +7.6%
Unibet 1.80 4.10 3.75 +7.6%
William Hill 1.80 4.00 3.50 +7.0%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.08 U 7.22
2.5 O 1.32 U 3.23
3.5 O 1.82 U 1.97
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.34 9 bks
NO
3.09 9 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 2.36
Away -0.5 2.03
Away -0.75 1.85
Away -1 1.62
Away -1.25 1.50
Away -1.5 1.40
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.