GOALSENSE
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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 3–0 · EXCELSIOR 96% · Value: Over 2.5 92%
CONF 87 FULL ANALYSIS →
Eredivisie · REGULAR SEASON - 31 · SUN 26 APR · 10:15 LOCAL
EXCELSIOR
14TH · 31 PTS · LAST 5:
D L D L L
FT
5 – 0
FULL TIME HT · 2-0
UTRECHT
W L W W D
· 8TH · 44 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 11' Noah Naujoks ⚽ 36' Derensili Sanches Fernandes ⚽ 55' Derensili Sanches Fernandes ⚽ 69' Irakli Yegoian ⚽ 90+3' Lennard Hartjes
GOALS
Derensili Sanches Fernandes
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Derensili Sanches Fernandes
Excelsior · 76 mins
⚽ 2 goals · 🅰 1 assist · 37% pass acc · 2 shots on
RATING
10.0
PREDICTIONS
▶ MATCH HIGHLIGHTS

Goals, key moments & recap 5 CLIPS

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Eredivisie: Excelsior vs Utrecht
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Eredivisie: Excelsior vs Utrecht
Eredivisie: Excelsior vs Utrecht
Eredivisie: Excelsior vs Utrecht
Eredivisie: Excelsior vs Utrecht
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

2.78
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
0.96
59%
BALL POSSESSION %
41%
18
TOTAL SHOTS
10
9
SHOTS ON TARGET
3
87%
PASS ACCURACY %
77%
3
CORNERS
2
KEY EVENTS 20 events
  1. 11'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Noah Naujoks · assist Derensili Sanches Fernandes
    EXC
  2. 17'
    Var · Goal Disallowed - offside
    Noah Naujoks
    EXC
  3. 29'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Matisse Didden
    UTR
  4. 31'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Matisse Didden
    UTR
  5. 31'
    Card · Red Card
    Matisse Didden
    UTR
  6. 36'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Derensili Sanches Fernandes · assist Gyan de Regt
    EXC
  7. 41'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Artem Stepanov · assist Siebe Horemans
    UTR
  8. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Souffian El Karouani · assist Emeka Adeile
    UTR
  9. 55'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Derensili Sanches Fernandes · assist Arthur Zagre
    EXC
  10. 63'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Emil Hansson · assist Szymon Włodarczyk
    EXC
  11. 64'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Gjivai Zechiël
    UTR
  12. 69'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Irakli Yegoian
    EXC
  13. 72'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Gjivai Zechiël · assist Can Bozdoğan
    UTR
  14. 76'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Derensili Sanches Fernandes · assist Adam Carlén
    EXC
  15. 76'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Irakli Yegoian · assist Ilias Bronkhorst
    EXC
  16. 80'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Ángel Alarcón · assist David Min
    UTR
  17. 80'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Yoann Cathline · assist Jesper Karlsson
    UTR
  18. 85'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Noah Naujoks · assist Simon Janssen
    EXC
  19. 85'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Rick Meissen · assist Giuliano Cairo
    EXC
  20. 90'+3
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Lennard Hartjes
    EXC
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
EXCELSIOR AVG 8.4
UTRECHT AVG 6.7
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
2.8
xG
1.0
18.0
TOTAL SHOTS
10.0
9.0
ON TARGET
3.0
6.0
OFF TARGET
3.0
3.0
BLOCKED
4.0
POSSESSION
59.0%
POSSESSION %
41.0%
526.0
PASSES
360.0
87.0%
PASS ACCURACY
77.0%
SET PIECES
3.0
CORNERS
2.0
3.0
OFFSIDES
1.0
DISCIPLINE
12.0
FOULS
8.0
0.0
YELLOW CARDS
3.0
0.0
RED CARDS
1.0
3.0
GK SAVES
4.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
EXCELSIOR 9 shots
Noah Naujoks
2/5
Derensili Sanches Fernandes
2/3
Lennard Hartjes
1/1
UTRECHT 3 shots
Yoann Cathline
1/2
Gjivai Zechiël
0/1
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 2.78 – 0.96
2.2 1.7 1.1 0.6 2.8 0.0 HT 11' 36' 55' 69' 90' H 2.78 A 0.96 KO 30' 60' FT

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 55%
45% A
11
EVENTS LOGGED
9
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 4-3-3 vs 4-2-3-1
4-3-3
4-2-3-1
1
STIJN VAN
 7.9
14
LEWIS SCH
12
ARTHUR ZA
 7.6
4
CASPER WI
3
RICK MEIS
23
IRAKLI YE
 8.2
20
LENNARD H
 8.3
10
NOAH NAUJ
 10.0
30
DERENSILI
11
GYAN DE R
7
EMIL HANS
1
VASILIOS
40
MATISSE D
23
NIKLAS VE
 6.5
16
SOUFFIAN
3
MIKE VAN
 6.9
27
ALONZO EN
 6.7
21
GJIVAI ZE
20
DANI DE W
77
ÁNGEL ALA
 6.6
10
YOANN CAT
18
ARTEM STE
SUBSTITUTES · EXCELSIOR
2
Ilias Bronkh...
D
29
Mike van Dui...
F
24
Giulliano Ca...
M
9
Szymon Wloda...
F
16
Calvin Raats...
G
15
Simon Jansse...
D
6
Adam Carlén
M
33
Jerolldino B...
F
COACH: Ruben den Uil
SUBSTITUTES · UTRECHT
9
David Min
F
53
Neal Viereck
D
51
Mees Eppink
G
44
Mike Eerdhui...
D
2
Siebe Horema...
D
33
Kevin Gadell...
G
11
Jesper Karls...
F
5
Emeka Adiele
D
8
Can Bozdoğan
M
15
Adrian Blake
F
COACH: Ron Jans
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
EXC · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

UTR · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
Sander van der Eijk, Netherlands
—
EXC MANAGER
Ruben den Uil
head coach
UTR MANAGER
Ron Jans
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
0
EXC WINS
5
DRAWS
5
UTR WINS
50%
50%
11 – 20
TOTAL GOALS · 10 MEETINGS
3.10
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 5 / 10
24 Aug 25
Utrecht
4 – 1
Excelsior
L
27 Jan 24
Excelsior
1 – 1
Utrecht
D
12 Nov 23
Utrecht
2 – 2
Excelsior
D
25 Jan 23
Utrecht
1 – 0
Excelsior
L
02 Oct 22
Excelsior
0 – 1
Utrecht
L
EXCELSIOR LAST 5 OVERALL
D L D L L
UTRECHT LAST 5 OVERALL
W L W W D
MATCH IMPACT Final 5–0 · result locked
EXCELSIOR #14
Won · already at 31 pts
UTRECHT #8
Lost · already at 44 pts
Promotion - Eredivisie (Conference League - Play Offs)
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 PSV Eindhoven 31 25 2 4 +49 77
W W W L L
2 Feyenoord 31 17 7 7 +23 58
W D D D W
3 NEC Nijmegen 31 15 10 6 +24 55
D D W D W
4 Ajax 31 14 12 5 +22 54
W W L D W
5 Twente 31 14 12 5 +19 54
D W W W L
6 AZ Alkmaar 31 14 7 10 +7 49
D W W L W
7 Heerenveen 31 13 8 10 +4 47
W L W D W
8 Utrecht 31 12 8 11 +8 44
L W L W W
9 Groningen 31 12 6 13 +3 42
L D W W D
10 Sparta Rotterdam 31 12 6 13 -17 42
L L D W L
11 GO Ahead Eagles 31 8 13 10 +5 37
D D W L W
12 Fortuna Sittard 31 10 6 15 -12 36
L D L L W
13 PEC Zwolle 31 8 10 13 -25 34
L D L W D
14 Excelsior 31 8 7 16 -15 31
W D L D L
15 FC Volendam 31 8 7 16 -17 31
W L D L L
16 Telstar 31 7 9 15 -10 30
W L L W L
17 NAC Breda 31 5 10 16 -23 25
L D D L L
18 Heracles 31 5 4 22 -45 19
L L L D L
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 90'+3
    Goal · Normal Goal · Lennard Hartjes
  • 85'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Rick Meissen
  • 85'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Noah Naujoks
  • 80'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Yoann Cathline
  • 80'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Ángel Alarcón
  • 76'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Irakli Yegoian
  • 76'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Derensili Sanches Fernandes
  • 72'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Gjivai Zechiël
  • 69'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Irakli Yegoian
  • 64'
    Card · Yellow Card · Gjivai Zechiël
    Tripping
  • 63'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Emil Hansson
  • 55'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Derensili Sanches Fernandes
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Souffian El Karouani
  • HALF TIME · 2 – 0
  • 41'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Artem Stepanov
  • 36'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Derensili Sanches Fernandes
  • 31'
    Card · Red Card · Matisse Didden
    Roughing
  • 31'
    Card · Yellow Card · Matisse Didden
    Roughing
  • 29'
    Card · Yellow Card · Matisse Didden
    Holding
  • 17'
    Var · Goal Disallowed - offside · Noah Naujoks
  • 11'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Noah Naujoks
23 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 23 BOOKMAKERS
EXCELSIOR WIN
3.18
31.4% implied
↑ best 3.44
DRAW
3.49
28.7% implied
↑ best 3.60
UTRECHT WIN
2.15
46.5% implied
↑ best 2.22

Market favors Utrecht. AI projects EXCELSIOR 96% · value bet Over 2.5.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS EXCELSIOR 96% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 3.20 3.55 2.10 +64.8%
10Bet 3.15 3.60 2.10 +64.3%
1xbet 3.44 3.57 2.17 +66.9%
1xBet 3.34 3.58 2.16 +66.1%
888Sport 3.10 3.30 2.15 +63.7%
888Sport 3.10 3.30 2.10 +63.7%
Bet365 3.30 3.50 2.15 +65.7%
Betano 3.35 3.45 2.15 +66.1%
Betfair 3.00 3.30 2.10 +62.7%
Betfair 3.25 3.50 2.10 +65.2%
BetVictor 3.20 3.60 2.15 +64.8%
bwin 3.20 3.60 2.15 +64.8%
Cashpoint 3.10 3.55 2.22 +63.7%
Coral 3.20 3.60 2.15 +64.8%
Dafabet 3.20 3.60 2.22 +64.8%
Dafabet 3.20 3.60 2.22 +64.8%
HKJC 3.05 3.40 1.96 +63.2%
Interwetten 3.10 3.45 2.20 +63.7%
Ladbrokes 3.20 3.50 2.15 +64.8%
MansionBet 3.15 3.60 2.21 +64.3%
Marathonbet 3.24 3.38 2.14 +65.1%
Marathonbet 3.24 3.48 2.10 +65.1%
MelBet 3.26 3.44 2.19 +65.3%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.20 U 4.14
2.5 O 1.71 U 2.10
3.5 O 2.73 U 1.42
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.58 16 bks
NO
2.27 16 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 1.43
Away -0.5 1.36
Away -0.75 1.21
Away -1 1.09
Away -1.25 1.08
Away -1.5 1.07
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.