GOALSENSE
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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 1–1 · FLAMENGO 38%
CONF 48 FULL ANALYSIS →
Copa Libertadores · GROUP STAGE - 3 · THU, 30 APR · 00:30 LOCAL
ESTUDIANTES L.P.
2ND · 9 PTS · LAST 5:
W L L D W
FT
1 – 1
FULL TIME HT · 0-1
FLAMENGO
W W W W L
· 1ST · 16 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 55' Guido Carrillo
GOALS
Luiz Araújo
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Luiz Araújo
Flamengo · 70 mins
⚽ 1 goal · 5% pass acc · 2 shots on
RATING
7.7
PREDICTIONS
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

98%
BALL POSSESSION %
64%
14
TOTAL SHOTS
8
6
SHOTS ON TARGET
5
321%
PASS ACCURACY %
302%
8
CORNERS
2
KEY EVENTS 11 events
  1. 20'
    Card · Foul
    Tiago Palacios
    EST
  2. 38'
    Card · Foul
    Facundo Farías
    EST
  3. 55'
    Goal · 1-1
    Guido Carrillo
    EST
  4. 62'
    Card · Argument
    Tomás Palacios
    EST
  5. 62'
    Card · Unallowed field entering
    EST
  6. 74'
    Subst
    Edwuin Cetré · assist Facundo Farías
    EST
  7. 74'
    Card · Foul
    Gabriel Neves
    EST
  8. 85'
    Card · Foul
    Ezequiel Piovi
    EST
  9. 86'
    Subst
    Adolfo Gaich · assist Guido Carrillo
    EST
  10. 86'
    Subst
    Alexis Castro · assist Gabriel Neves
    EST
  11. 87'
    Subst
    Brian Aguirre · assist Tiago Palacios
    EST
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
ESTUDIANTES L.P. AVG 7.1
FLAMENGO AVG 7.2
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
14.0
TOTAL SHOTS
8.0
6.0
ON TARGET
5.0
5.0
OFF TARGET
2.0
3.0
BLOCKED
1.0
POSSESSION
98.0%
POSSESSION %
64.0%
367.0
PASSES
364.0
321.0%
PASS ACCURACY
302.0%
SET PIECES
8.0
CORNERS
2.0
13.0
OFFSIDES
12.0
DISCIPLINE
14.0
FOULS
5.0
5.0
YELLOW CARDS
1.0
1.0
RED CARDS
1.0
4.0
GK SAVES
5.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
ESTUDIANTES L.P. 3 shots
Guido Carrillo
2/2
Ezequiel Piovi
1/1
FLAMENGO 3 shots
Luiz Araújo
2/2
Samuel Lino
0/1
⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 100%
0% A
11
EVENTS LOGGED
0
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 4-2-3-1 vs 4-2-3-1
4-2-3-1
4-2-3-1
7.2
16
FERNANDO
13
GASTóN BE
24
TOMáS PAL
 7.0
14
LEANDRO G
20
ERIC MEZA
 7.0
8
GABRIEL N
 6.9
21
EZEQUIEL
11
FACUNDO F
10
TIAGO PAL
32
MIKEL AMO
 7.3
9
GUIDO CAR
 7.2
1
AGUSTíN R
 7.2
26
ALEX SAND
44
VITãO
13
DANILO
 7.2
22
EMERSON R
21
JORGINHO
52
EVERTTON
 6.9
16
SAMUEL LI
10
G. DE ARR
 7.7
7
LUIZ ARAú
27
BRUNO HEN
SUBSTITUTES · ESTUDIANTES L.P.
28
Brian Aguirr...
F
22
Alexis Castr...
M
18
Edwuin Cetré
F
27
Lucas Alario
F
29
Fabricio Pér...
F
17
Joaquín Tobi...
F
7
José Sosa
M
26
Ramiro Funes...
D
4
Santiago Núñ...
D
40
Eros Mancuso
D
1
Fabricio Iac...
G
19
Adolfo Gaich
F
COACH: Alexander Medina
SUBSTITUTES · FLAMENGO
8
Saúl Ñíguez
M
11
Everton
F
18
Nicolás de l...
M
9
Pedro
F
6
Ayrton Lucas
D
3
Léo Ortiz
D
2
Guillermo Va...
D
42
Andrew
G
49
Dyogo Alves
G
19
Gonzalo Plat...
F
15
Jorge Carras...
M
64
Wallace Yan
F
COACH: Leonardo Jardim
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
EST · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

FLA · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
P. Maza
—
EST MANAGER
Alexander Medina
head coach
FLA MANAGER
Leonardo Jardim
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
1
EST WINS
1
DRAWS
1
FLA WINS
33.3%
33.3%
33.3%
3 – 3
TOTAL GOALS · 3 MEETINGS
2.00
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 3 / 3
21 May 2026
Flamengo
1 – 0
Estudiantes L.P.
L
26 Sep 2025
Estudiantes L.P.
1 – 0
Flamengo
W
19 Sep 2025
Flamengo
2 – 1
Estudiantes L.P.
L
ESTUDIANTES L.P. LAST 5 OVERALL
W L L D W
FLAMENGO LAST 5 OVERALL
W W W W L
MATCH IMPACT Final 1–1 · result locked
ESTUDIANTES L.P. #2
Lost · already at 9 pts
Playoffs
FLAMENGO #1
Lost · already at 16 pts
Playoffs
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 Flamengo 6 5 1 0 +12 16
W W D W W
1 Rosario Central 5 4 1 0 +9 13
W W W W D
1 LDU de Quito 6 4 0 2 +3 12
W W L L W
1 Cerro Porteno 5 3 1 1 +2 10
W W D W L
1 Corinthians 5 3 2 0 +6 11
D D W W W
1 U. Catolica 5 3 1 1 +3 10
W D W W L
1 Independ. Rivadavia 5 4 1 0 +7 13
W D W W W
1 Coquimbo Unido 6 3 1 2 +2 10
L W W L W
2 Independiente del Valle 5 3 1 1 +4 10
W L W W D
2 Mirassol 6 4 0 2 +3 12
L W W W L
2 Palmeiras 5 2 2 1 +2 8
L W D W D
2 Platense 5 2 1 2 -1 7
L D W W L
2 Cruzeiro 5 2 2 1 +1 8
D D W L W
2 Bolívar 5 1 2 2 0 5
L D W D L
2 Deportes Tolima 6 2 2 2 +1 8
D L W W L
2 Estudiantes L.P. 6 2 3 1 +1 9
W L D D W
3 UCV 5 2 0 3 -5 6
L W L L W
3 Lanus 6 3 0 3 -4 9
W L L W W
3 Sporting Cristal 5 2 0 3 -1 6
L L W L W
3 Santa Fe 5 1 2 2 -2 5
W D L L D
3 Boca Juniors 5 2 1 2 +2 7
D L L W W
3 Fluminense 5 1 2 2 -2 5
W D L L D
3 Club Nacional 6 2 2 2 -2 8
W D L L W
3 Independiente Medellin 6 2 1 3 -5 7
L W W L D
4 Always Ready 6 1 0 5 -2 3
L L W L L
4 Junior 5 1 1 3 -3 4
W L L L D
4 Penarol 5 0 3 2 -3 3
D D L L D
4 Barcelona SC 5 1 0 4 -6 3
L W L L L
4 Deportivo La Guaira 5 0 3 2 -5 3
L D L D D
4 Universitario 6 1 3 2 -1 6
D D L W L
4 Cusco 6 0 1 5 -8 1
L L D L L
4 Libertad Asuncion 5 0 0 5 -8 0
L L L L L
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 87'
    Subst · Brian Aguirre
    8th Substitution
  • 86'
    Subst · Alexis Castro
    6th Substitution
  • 86'
    Subst · Adolfo Gaich
    7th Substitution
  • 85'
    Card · Foul · Ezequiel Piovi
    6th Yellowcard
  • 74'
    Card · Foul · Gabriel Neves
    5th Yellowcard
  • 74'
    Subst · Edwuin Cetré
    3rd Substitution
  • 62'
    Card · Unallowed field entering
    2nd Redcard
  • 62'
    Card · Argument · Tomás Palacios
    3rd Yellowcard
  • 55'
    Goal · 1-1 · Guido Carrillo
    2nd Goal
  • HALF TIME · 0 – 1
  • 38'
    Card · Foul · Facundo Farías
    2nd Yellowcard
  • 20'
    Card · Foul · Tiago Palacios
    1st Yellowcard
13 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 13 BOOKMAKERS
ESTUDIANTES L.P. WIN
3.48
28.7% implied
↑ best 3.75
DRAW
2.95
33.9% implied
↑ best 3.10
FLAMENGO WIN
2.29
43.7% implied
↑ best 2.45

Market favors Flamengo. AI projects FLAMENGO 38%.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS FLAMENGO 38% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 3.55 2.96 2.22 +4.8%
1xBet 3.60 3.02 2.31 +5.2%
888Sport 3.10 2.75 2.45 +0.7%
Bet365 3.60 3.00 2.25 +5.2%
Betano 3.75 3.05 2.32 +6.3%
Betfair 3.50 2.88 2.25 +4.4%
BetVictor 3.40 3.10 2.30 +3.6%
Dafabet 3.50 3.05 2.33 +4.4%
Marathonbet 3.50 2.94 2.24 +4.4%
Pinnacle 3.66 3.01 2.31 +5.7%
SBO 3.02 2.78 2.28 -0.1%
Unibet 3.55 3.00 2.23 +4.8%
William Hill 3.50 2.80 2.25 +4.4%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.49 U 2.56
2.5 O 2.51 U 1.50
3.5 O 4.88 U 1.16
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
2.06 10 bks
NO
1.69 10 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 1.39
Away -0.5 1.31
Away -0.75 1.19
Away -1 1.06
Away -1.25 1.05
Away -1.5 1.03
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.