GOALSENSE
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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 0–2 · FC PORTO 90%
CONF 86 FULL ANALYSIS →
Primeira Liga · REGULAR SEASON - 31 · SUN 26 APR · 17:00 LOCAL
ESTRELA
15TH · 28 PTS · LAST 5:
L L L W L
FT
1 – 2
FULL TIME HT · 0-2
FC PORTO
W L W D D
· 1ST · 82 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 79' Jovane Cabral
GOALS
⚽ 17' Deniz Gül (P) ⚽ 37' Deniz Gül
Jovane Cabral
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Jovane Cabral
Estrela · 49 mins
⚽ 1 goal · 18% pass acc · 1 shots on
RATING
8.0
PREDICTIONS
▶ MATCH HIGHLIGHTS

Goals, key moments & recap 4 CLIPS

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Primeira Liga: Estrela da Amadora vs FC Porto
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Primeira Liga: Estrela da Amadora vs FC Porto
Primeira Liga: Estrela da Amadora vs FC Porto
Primeira Liga: Estrela da Amadora vs FC Porto
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

1.49
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
1.90
47%
BALL POSSESSION %
53%
11
TOTAL SHOTS
11
3
SHOTS ON TARGET
4
77%
PASS ACCURACY %
82%
0
CORNERS
6
KEY EVENTS 19 events
  1. 15'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Kevin Höög Jansson
    EST
  2. 17'
    Goal · Penalty
    Deniz Gül
    FC
  3. 24'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Deniz Gül
    FC
  4. 37'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Deniz Gül · assist Alberto Costa
    FC
  5. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Kevin Höög Jansson · assist Jefferson Encada
    EST
  6. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Max Scholze · assist Jovane Cabral
    EST
  7. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Eddy Doué · assist Paulo Moreira
    EST
  8. 61'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Pepê · assist William Gomes
    FC
  9. 61'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Deniz Gül · assist Terem Moffi
    FC
  10. 70'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Alberto Costa · assist Martim Fernandes
    FC
  11. 70'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Gabri Veiga · assist Rodrigo Mora
    FC
  12. 73'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Ianis Stoica · assist Alisson Souza de Jesus
    EST
  13. 73'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Rodrigo Pinho · assist Sydney van Hooijdonk
    EST
  14. 79'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Jovane Cabral · assist Sydney van Hooijdonk
    EST
  15. 82'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Terem Moffi
    FC
  16. 84'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Jakub Kiwior · assist Seko Fofana
    FC
  17. 86'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Stefan Leković
    EST
  18. 90'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Sydney van Hooijdonk
    EST
  19. 90'+5
    Card · Yellow Card
    Diogo Costa
    FC
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
ESTRELA AVG 7.1
FC PORTO AVG 7.5
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
1.5
xG
1.9
11.0
TOTAL SHOTS
11.0
3.0
ON TARGET
4.0
6.0
OFF TARGET
4.0
2.0
BLOCKED
3.0
POSSESSION
47.0%
POSSESSION %
53.0%
339.0
PASSES
389.0
77.0%
PASS ACCURACY
82.0%
SET PIECES
0.0
CORNERS
6.0
0.0
OFFSIDES
3.0
DISCIPLINE
14.0
FOULS
15.0
3.0
YELLOW CARDS
2.0
2.0
GK SAVES
2.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
ESTRELA 6 shots
Abraham Marcus
1/3
Jovane Cabral
1/1
Bruno Langa
0/1
Sydney van Hooijdonk
1/1
FC PORTO 2 shots
Oskar Pietuszewski
1/1
Gabri Veiga
0/1
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 1.49 – 1.90
1.5 1.1 0.8 0.4 1.9 0.0 HT 79' 17' 37' H 1.49 A 1.90 KO 30' 60' FT

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 47%
53% A
9
EVENTS LOGGED
10
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 4-2-3-1 vs 4-3-3
4-2-3-1
4-3-3
22
DAVID GRI
 7.2
24
BRUNO LAN
83
OTAVIO
 6.9
4
STEFAN LE
21
MAX SCHOL
6
KEVIN Höö
39
EDDY DOUé
8
ROBSON LU
10
IANIS STO
 6.7
99
ABRAHAM M
9
RODRIGO P
99
DIOGO COS
4
JAKUB KIW
5
JAN BEDNA
 7.5
3
THIAGO SI
 7.9
20
ALBERTO C
 7.3
10
GABRI VEI
 7.0
13
PABLO ROS
8
VICTOR FR
 7.9
77
OSKAR PIE
27
DENIZ GüL
11
PEPê
SUBSTITUTES · ESTRELA
63
Alex Sola
M
30
Luan Patrick
D
13
Eduardo Dos...
G
80
Alisson Souz...
F
20
Sydney van H...
F
11
Jovane Cabra...
F
19
Paulo Moreir...
M
17
Jefferson En...
D
18
Jorge Meirel...
F
COACH: Joao Nuno
SUBSTITUTES · FC PORTO
21
Dominik Prpi...
D
74
Francisco Mo...
D
14
Claudio Ramo...
G
42
Seko Fofana
M
86
Rodrigo Mora
M
52
Martim Ferna...
D
29
Terem Moffi
F
7
William Gome...
F
17
Borja Sainz
F
COACH: Francesco Farioli
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
EST · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

FC · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
Helder Filipe Claudio Carvalho, Portugal
—
EST MANAGER
Joao Nuno
head coach
FC MANAGER
Francesco Farioli
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
1
EST WINS
1
DRAWS
4
FC WINS
16.7%
16.7%
66.7%
6 – 11
TOTAL GOALS · 6 MEETINGS
2.83
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 5 / 6
15 Dec 25
FC Porto
3 – 1
Estrela
L
26 Apr 25
Estrela
2 – 0
FC Porto
W
16 Dec 24
FC Porto
2 – 0
Estrela
L
17 Feb 24
FC Porto
2 – 0
Estrela
L
15 Sep 23
Estrela
0 – 1
FC Porto
L
ESTRELA LAST 5 OVERALL
L L L W L
FC PORTO LAST 5 OVERALL
W L W D D
MATCH IMPACT Final 1–2 · result locked
ESTRELA #15
Lost · already at 28 pts
FC PORTO #1
Won · already at 82 pts
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 FC Porto 31 26 4 1 +48 82
W W W D W
2 Benfica 31 22 9 0 +47 75
W W W D W
3 Sporting CP 30 22 6 2 +55 72
D L W W W
4 SC Braga 31 16 8 7 +28 56
L W D W W
5 Famalicao 31 14 9 8 +12 51
W D D D W
6 GIL Vicente 30 12 10 8 +13 46
L D W L D
7 Guimaraes 31 12 6 13 -5 42
W W D W L
8 Moreirense 31 11 6 14 -11 39
L W D L L
9 Alverca 31 10 8 13 -15 38
W L W W L
10 Estoril 31 10 7 14 -1 37
L L L L L
11 Arouca 31 10 5 16 -21 35
L W L W W
12 Rio Ave 31 8 10 13 -19 34
L D W L W
13 Santa Clara 31 8 8 15 -10 32
W D L L W
14 Nacional 31 8 7 16 -7 31
W W L W L
15 Estrela 31 6 10 15 -17 28
L L L L W
16 Casa Pia 30 5 11 14 -25 26
L D L D L
17 Tondela 30 4 9 17 -29 21
L L D L D
18 AVS 31 1 11 19 -43 14
D D D L D
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 90'+5
    Card · Yellow Card · Diogo Costa
    Delay of game
  • 90'
    Card · Yellow Card · Sydney van Hooijdonk
    Roughing
  • 86'
    Card · Yellow Card · Stefan Leković
    Unsportsmanlike conduct
  • 84'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Jakub Kiwior
  • 82'
    Card · Yellow Card · Terem Moffi
    Roughing
  • 79'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Jovane Cabral
  • 73'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Rodrigo Pinho
  • 73'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Ianis Stoica
  • 70'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Gabri Veiga
  • 70'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Alberto Costa
  • 61'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Deniz Gül
  • 61'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Pepê
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Eddy Doué
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Max Scholze
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Kevin Höög Jansson
  • HALF TIME · 0 – 2
  • 37'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Deniz Gül
  • 24'
    Card · Yellow Card · Deniz Gül
    Tripping
  • 17'
    Goal · Penalty · Deniz Gül
  • 15'
    Card · Yellow Card · Kevin Höög Jansson
    Tripping
13 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 13 BOOKMAKERS
ESTRELA WIN
10.41
9.6% implied
↑ best 11.40
DRAW
5.22
19.2% implied
↑ best 5.78
FC PORTO WIN
1.29
77.5% implied
↑ best 1.34

Market favors FC Porto. AI projects FC PORTO 90%.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS FC PORTO 90% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 10.75 5.10 1.28 +11.9%
1xBet 11.40 5.78 1.30 +13.1%
888Sport 10.00 5.00 1.29 +12.5%
Bet365 9.50 5.25 1.30 +13.1%
Betano 11.00 5.30 1.34 +15.4%
Betfair 11.00 5.00 1.25 +10.0%
BetVictor 10.00 4.80 1.29 +12.5%
Dafabet 10.00 5.40 1.33 +14.8%
Marathonbet 10.50 5.30 1.27 +11.3%
Pinnacle 10.88 5.66 1.30 +13.1%
SBO 9.26 5.13 1.29 +12.5%
Unibet 11.00 5.10 1.28 +11.9%
William Hill 10.00 5.00 1.29 +12.5%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.24 U 3.74
2.5 O 1.81 U 1.98
3.5 O 3.04 U 1.35
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
2.29 10 bks
NO
1.56 10 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 1.10
Away +0 1.06
Away +0.25 1.16
Away +0.5 1.30
Away +0.75 1.34
Away +1 1.44
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.