GOALSENSE
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Championship · REGULAR SEASON - 2 · SAT, 22 AUG · 14:00 LOCAL
DERBY
8TH · 69 PTS · LAST 5:
L L W L W
FT
2 – 2
FULL TIME HT · 1-2
CARDIFF
D W L W W
· LAST 5
⚽ 26' Carlton Morris ⚽ 49' Bobby Clark
GOALS
⚽ 19' Cian Ashford ⚽ 39' Yousef Salech
Joel Bagan
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Joel Bagan
Cardiff · 46 mins
· 35% pass acc
RATING
8.3
PREDICTIONS
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

1.31
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
1.74
44%
BALL POSSESSION %
56%
10
TOTAL SHOTS
9
5
SHOTS ON TARGET
7
83%
PASS ACCURACY %
81%
5
CORNERS
5
KEY EVENTS 18 events
  1. 9'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Corey Blackett-Taylor
    DER
  2. 19'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Cian Ashford · assist Ronan Kpakio
    CAR
  3. 26'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Carlton Morris · assist Bobby Clark
    DER
  4. 39'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Yousef Salech · assist Rubin Colwill
    CAR
  5. 49'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Bobby Clark
    DER
  6. 53'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Alex Robertson
    CAR
  7. 55'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Oscar Fraulo
    DER
  8. 59'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Rubin Colwill · assist David Turnbull
    CAR
  9. 59'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Cian Ashford · assist Chris Willock
    CAR
  10. 60'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Lewis Travis
    DER
  11. 64'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Oscar Fraulo · assist Ryan Hedges
    DER
  12. 65'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Corey Blackett-Taylor · assist Rhian Brewster
    DER
  13. 71'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Jack Moylan · assist Joel Colwill
    CAR
  14. 71'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Ollie Tanner · assist Isaak Davies
    CAR
  15. 80'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Max Johnston
    DER
  16. 85'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Dion Sanderson
    DER
  17. 88'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Max Johnston · assist Ryan Nyambe
    DER
  18. 88'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Carlton Morris · assist Lars-Jørgen Salvesen
    DER
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
DERBY AVG 7.3
CARDIFF AVG 7.5
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
1.3
xG
1.7
10.0
TOTAL SHOTS
9.0
5.0
ON TARGET
7.0
4.0
OFF TARGET
1.0
1.0
BLOCKED
1.0
POSSESSION
44.0%
POSSESSION %
56.0%
150.0
PASSES
202.0
83.0%
PASS ACCURACY
81.0%
SET PIECES
5.0
CORNERS
5.0
2.0
OFFSIDES
0.0
DISCIPLINE
3.0
FOULS
5.0
1.0
YELLOW CARDS
0.0
4.0
GK SAVES
3.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
DERBY 6 shots
Corey Blackett-Taylor
2/3
Oscar Fraulo
1/2
Carlton Morris
1/1
CARDIFF 2 shots
Cian Ashford
1/1
Rubin Colwill
1/1
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 1.31 – 1.74
1.4 1 0.7 0.3 1.7 0.0 HT 26' 49' 19' 39' H 1.31 A 1.74 KO 30' 60' FT

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 61%
39% A
11
EVENTS LOGGED
7
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 4-2-3-1 vs 4-2-3-1
4-2-3-1
4-2-3-1
7.9
1
JACOB WID
 7.0
18
CHARLIE T
6
SONDRE LA
28
DION SAND
22
MAX JOHNS
20
ALEX MOWA
27
LEWIS TRA
 7.2
33
COREY BLA
 7.0
29
OSCAR FRA
8
BOBBY CLA
 7.3
9
CARLTON M
 7.6
1
NATHAN TR
23
CALUM SCA
 8.3
3
JOEL BAGA
38
PERRY NG
44
RONAN KPA
 6.9
18
ALEX ROBE
8
JACK MOYL
 7.5
45
CIAN ASHF
 7.3
10
RUBIN COL
11
OLLIE TAN
9
YOUSEF SA
SUBSTITUTES · DERBY
13
Filip Bilbij...
M
15
Lars-Jørgen...
F
26
Ryan Hedges
M
37
Owen Eames
M
23
Joe Ward
M
24
Ryan Nyambe
D
3
Craig Forsyt...
D
31
Josh Vickers
G
10
Rhian Brewst...
F
COACH: John Eustace
SUBSTITUTES · CARDIFF
39
Isaak Davies
F
14
David Turnbu...
M
27
Joel Colwill
M
33
Rob Tankiewi...
M
16
Chris Willoc...
M
40
Noah Anyadik...
D
30
Harry Tyrer
G
41
Matthew Turn...
G
47
Callum Robin...
F
COACH: Brian Barry-Murphy
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
DER · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

CAR · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
Rueben Ricardo, England
—
DER MANAGER
John Eustace
head coach
CAR MANAGER
Brian Barry-Murphy
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
2
DER WINS
3
DRAWS
5
CAR WINS
20%
30%
50%
8 – 13
TOTAL GOALS · 10 MEETINGS
2.10
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 5 / 10
25 Jan 2025
Cardiff
2 – 1
Derby
L
14 Sep 2024
Derby
1 – 0
Cardiff
W
07 May 2022
Derby
0 – 1
Cardiff
L
01 Mar 2022
Cardiff
1 – 0
Derby
L
02 Mar 2021
Cardiff
4 – 0
Derby
L
DERBY LAST 5 OVERALL
L L W L W
CARDIFF LAST 5 OVERALL
D W L W W
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 Coventry 46 28 11 7 +52 95
W W W D D
2 Ipswich 46 23 15 8 +33 84
W D D W D
3 Millwall 46 24 11 11 +15 83
L D W D W
4 Southampton 46 22 14 10 +26 80
W D W D D
5 Middlesbrough 46 22 14 10 +25 80
L L D D W
6 Hull City 46 21 10 15 +4 73
W W D W L
7 Wrexham 46 19 14 13 +4 71
D L W W L
8 Derby 46 20 9 17 +8 69
L W L W L
9 Norwich 46 19 8 19 +7 65
L D W W L
10 Birmingham 46 17 13 16 +1 64
D W W D W
11 Swansea 46 18 10 18 -2 64
W D W L W
12 Bristol City 46 17 11 18 0 62
W L D L D
13 Sheffield Utd 46 18 6 22 0 60
W L L W W
14 Preston 46 15 15 16 -7 60
L W L L W
15 QPR 46 16 10 20 -12 58
L L L L D
16 Watford 46 14 15 17 -12 57
L L L L L
17 Stoke City 46 15 10 21 -5 55
L L L L D
18 Portsmouth 46 14 13 19 -15 55
D W L W W
19 Charlton 46 13 14 19 -14 53
L W L D L
20 Blackburn 46 13 13 20 -14 52
L W D L D
21 West Brom 46 13 14 19 -10 51
L D W W D
22 Oxford United 46 11 14 21 -14 47
L W L L W
23 Leicester 46 12 16 18 -10 46
W D D L L
24 Sheffield Wednesday 46 2 12 32 -60 0
W L L D D
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 88'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Carlton Morris
  • 88'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Max Johnston
  • 85'
    Card · Yellow Card · Dion Sanderson
    Foul
  • 80'
    Card · Yellow Card · Max Johnston
    Foul
  • 71'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Ollie Tanner
  • 71'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Jack Moylan
  • 65'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Corey Blackett-Taylor
  • 64'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Oscar Fraulo
  • 60'
    Card · Yellow Card · Lewis Travis
    Foul
  • 59'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Cian Ashford
  • 59'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Rubin Colwill
  • 55'
    Card · Yellow Card · Oscar Fraulo
    Foul
  • 53'
    Card · Yellow Card · Alex Robertson
    Foul
  • 49'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Bobby Clark
  • HALF TIME · 1 – 2
  • 39'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Yousef Salech
  • 26'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Carlton Morris
  • 19'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Cian Ashford
  • 9'
    Card · Yellow Card · Corey Blackett-Taylor
    Unsportsmanlike conduct
12 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 12 BOOKMAKERS
DERBY WIN
2.03
49.3% implied
↑ best 2.09
DRAW
3.46
28.9% implied
↑ best 3.59
CARDIFF WIN
3.55
28.2% implied
↑ best 3.80
MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2
1xBet 2.00 3.52 3.54
Bet365 2.05 3.50 3.50
Betano 2.07 3.45 3.60
Betfair 2.00 3.40 3.80
BetVictor 2.05 3.50 3.50
Dafabet 2.09 3.55 3.60
Marathonbet 1.98 3.52 3.54
Pinnacle 2.07 3.59 3.67
SBO 2.04 3.23 3.25
Superbet 2.07 3.50 3.50
Unibet 1.96 3.35 3.75
William Hill 2.00 3.40 3.40

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.27 U 3.56
2.5 O 1.87 U 1.92
3.5 O 3.09 U 1.34
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.70 9 bks
NO
2.06 9 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 2.05
Away -0.5 1.78
Away -0.75 1.59
Away -1 1.39
Away -1.25 1.32
Away -1.5 1.25
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.