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Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · GROUP 4 - 32 · SUN 26 APR · 16:00 LOCAL
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DEPORTIVO ALAVéS III
FT
2 – 3
FULL TIME
DERIO
⚽ 23' — ⚽ 90' —
GOALS
⚽ 58' — ⚽ 73' — ⚽ 90+6' —
CLAUDE AI · BLENDED FROM 4 MODELS
FINAL · VERIFIED
CONF 48/100 MED
🔮 PREDICTED FULL-TIME SCORE
DEP
2 – 1
DER
most likely scoreline · 11.1% probability
AI PICKS DEPORTIVO ALAVéS III TO WIN 48%
FT 2 – 3
→
🤖 AI PROJECTED FT 2 – 1
🤖 AI BREAKDOWN

HOW AI SEES THE MATCH

FINAL · VERIFIED
DEP WIN 48%
DRAW 32%
DER WIN 20%
h + d + a = 100% · stacked share
💰 AI BETTING TIP
OVER 1.5

AI projects 79.46% — the safest goals market. Combined value over single 1X2 pick at this confidence.

CONF 79% OVER 1.5 ✓ avoid: 1X2 single 4 models
🤖 AI ANALYSIS

Early stages with thin data; home advantage + recent H2H suggests slight Alavés edge but high uncertainty remains.

🤖 AI REASONING why AI picked this
WHY DEPORTIVO ALAVéS III FAVORED
48%
Only 5 minutes played — scoreline and momentum will shift probabilities significantly
CONTEXT
H2H favours home (won 3-2 in Dec, split record overall) — home team edge established
CONTEXT
Home form DW and away form DL slightly favour home, but sample is minimal
CONTEXT
WHY DERIO CHALLENGED
20%
Only 5 minutes played — scoreline and momentum will shift probabilities significantly
CONTEXT
H2H favours home (won 3-2 in Dec, split record overall) — home team edge established
CONTEXT
Home form DW and away form DL slightly favour home, but sample is minimal
CONTEXT
🤖 CONTEXT · NEUTRAL FACTORS
  • Only 5 minutes played — scoreline and momentum will shift probabilities significantly
  • H2H favours home (won 3-2 in Dec, split record overall) — home team edge established
  • Home form DW and away form DL slightly favour home, but sample is minimal
🤖 AI LIVE TIMELINE

PROBABILITY TIMELINE

How AI re-projects after each event
H DRAW A
100% 50% 0% KO 15' 30' HT 60' 75' FT ⚽ 23' ⚽ 58' ⚽ 73' ⚽ 90' ⚽ 96'
Probabilities re-blended at each event · 5 events marked → Derived from goal events + remaining time
🤖 AI SCORE MATRIX

SCORELINE PROBABILITY

All possible scorelines · Poisson from xG
0% 11.1%+
0
1
2
3
4
5
6+
0
5.0
4.4
2.0
0.6
0.1
·
·
1
10.5
9.4
4.2
1.2
0.3
·
·
2
11.1
9.9
4.4
1.3
0.3
·
·
3
7.8
6.9
3.1
0.9
0.2
·
·
4
4.1
3.7
1.6
0.5
0.1
·
·
5
1.7
1.5
0.7
0.2
·
·
·
6+
0.6
0.5
0.2
0.1
·
·
·
MOST LIKELY · TOP 5
2 — 0 11.1%
1 — 0 10.5%
2 — 1 9.9%
1 — 1 9.4%
3 — 0 7.8%
Top 5 = 48.6% · rest 51.4%