GOALSENSE
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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 0–2 · NEW YORK CITY FC 95%
CONF 88 FULL ANALYSIS →
Major League Soccer · REGULAR SEASON - 16 · WED, 22 JUL · 23:30 LOCAL
COLUMBUS CREW
14TH · 20 PTS · LAST 5:
L L L D W
FT
1 – 2
FULL TIME HT · 0-1
NEW YORK CITY FC
D L L D W
· 7TH · 27 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 90+3' D. Gazdag (P)
GOALS
⚽ 28' N. Fernández Mercau (P) ⚽ 70' A. Ojeda
N. Fernández Mercau
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
N. Fernández Mercau
New York City FC · 100 mins
⚽ 1 goal · 47% pass acc · 1 shots on
RATING
8.3
PREDICTIONS
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

1.67
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
1.41
59%
BALL POSSESSION %
41%
11
TOTAL SHOTS
8
4
SHOTS ON TARGET
5
89%
PASS ACCURACY %
84%
3
CORNERS
0
KEY EVENTS 17 events
  1. 28'
    Goal · Penalty
    N. Fernández Mercau
    NEW
  2. 40'
    Card · Yellow Card
    T. Gray
    NEW
  3. 55'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    M. Jones · assist Talles Magno
    NEW
  4. 55'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    B. Traoré · assist H. Wolf
    NEW
  5. 57'
    Card · Yellow Card
    J. Thiaré
    COL
  6. 60'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Maximilian Arfsten
    COL
  7. 63'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    T. Karumanchi · assist Hugo Picard
    COL
  8. 64'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    M. Amundsen · assist S. Moreira
    COL
  9. 70'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    A. Ojeda · assist Talles Magno
    NEW
  10. 74'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Sekou Tidiany Bangoura · assist D. Chambost
    COL
  11. 75'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    J. Thiaré · assist D. Gazdag
    COL
  12. 77'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    J. Shore · assist Kevin Pierre
    NEW
  13. 82'
    Card · Yellow Card
    T. Habroune
    COL
  14. 83'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Nico Cavallo · assist Máximo Carrizo
    NEW
  15. 83'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Nariman Akhundzade · assist C. Adams
    COL
  16. 90'+3
    Goal · Penalty
    D. Gazdag
    COL
  17. 90'+5
    Card · Yellow Card
    J. Sands
    NEW
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
COLUMBUS CREW AVG 7.2
NEW YORK CITY FC AVG 7.4
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
1.7
xG
1.4
11.0
TOTAL SHOTS
8.0
4.0
ON TARGET
5.0
6.0
OFF TARGET
2.0
1.0
BLOCKED
1.0
POSSESSION
59.0%
POSSESSION %
41.0%
584.0
PASSES
411.0
89.0%
PASS ACCURACY
84.0%
SET PIECES
3.0
CORNERS
0.0
DISCIPLINE
7.0
FOULS
11.0
3.0
YELLOW CARDS
2.0
3.0
GK SAVES
3.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
COLUMBUS CREW 5 shots
T. Habroune
1/4
D. Gazdag
1/1
NEW YORK CITY FC 4 shots
N. Fernández Mercau
1/2
A. Ojeda
2/2
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 1.67 – 1.41
1.3 1 0.7 0.3 1.7 0.0 HT 90' 28' 70' H 1.67 A 1.41 KO 30' 60' FT

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 53%
47% A
9
EVENTS LOGGED
8
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 4-4-2 vs 4-1-4-1
4-4-2
4-1-4-1
6.9
28
P. SCHULT
 7.2
18
M. AMUNDS
4
RUDY CAMA
25
S. ZAWADZ
23
M. FARSI
27
MAXIMILIA
 7.0
17
SEKOU TID
50
T. KARUMA
90
NARIMAN A
 7.5
16
T. HABROU
19
J. THIARé
 7.2
49
M. FREESE
2
NICO CAVA
6
J. SANDS
 7.2
13
THIAGO MA
24
T. GRAY
32
J. SHORE
88
M. JONES
8
A. PEREA
 8.3
7
N. FERNáN
 7.6
26
A. OJEDA
9
B. TRAORé
SUBSTITUTES · COLUMBUS CREW
45
Owen Presthu...
D
12
Cesar Ruvalc...
D
1
N. Hagen
G
46
Chase Adams
F
8
D. Gazdag
M
7
D. Chambost
M
31
S. Moreira
D
30
Hugo Picard
M
14
A. Sejdić
M
COACH: Laurent Courtois
SUBSTITUTES · NEW YORK CITY FC
87
Arnau Farno...
F
23
Maxwell Murr...
D
35
M. Ilenič
D
30
T. Romero
G
29
Máximo Carri...
M
15
Kevin Pierre
M
11
Talles Magno
F
17
H. Wolf
F
99
Seymour Garf...
F
COACH: Pascal Jansen
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
COL · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

NEW · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
L. Hernandez
—
COL MANAGER
Laurent Courtois
head coach
NEW MANAGER
Pascal Jansen
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
3
COL WINS
4
DRAWS
3
NEW WINS
30%
40%
30%
14 – 15
TOTAL GOALS · 10 MEETINGS
2.90
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 5 / 10
10 May 2026
New York City FC
3 – 0
Columbus Crew
L
17 Sep 2025
New York City FC
3 – 2
Columbus Crew
L
22 Mar 2025
Columbus Crew
0 – 0
New York City FC
D
31 Aug 2024
Columbus Crew
4 – 2
New York City FC
W
14 Jun 2024
New York City FC
2 – 3
Columbus Crew
W
COLUMBUS CREW LAST 5 OVERALL
L L L D W
NEW YORK CITY FC LAST 5 OVERALL
D L L D W
MATCH IMPACT Final 1–2 · result locked
COLUMBUS CREW #14
Lost · already at 20 pts
NEW YORK CITY FC #7
Won · already at 27 pts
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 Vancouver Whitecaps 20 12 4 4 +27 40
W L W D D
1 Nashville SC 21 15 4 2 +26 49
W W W D L
2 Houston Dynamo 21 12 2 7 +4 38
L W W W W
2 Inter Miami 21 11 6 4 +9 39
L D L D W
3 Los Angeles FC 22 10 5 7 +14 35
D L L D W
3 Chicago Fire 20 11 3 6 +11 36
D W W W L
4 New England Revolution 21 10 4 7 +7 34
D W L L D
4 San Jose Earthquakes 21 10 3 8 +6 33
L L L L D
5 FC Dallas 21 9 6 6 +4 33
L W W D L
5 Charlotte 21 9 5 7 +6 32
W D W L W
6 St. Louis City 21 9 6 6 +3 33
W D W D W
6 FC Cincinnati 21 8 7 6 +2 31
D W D W L
7 Colorado Rapids 21 9 1 11 +2 28
L W W W L
7 New York City FC 21 7 6 8 +5 27
D L L D W
8 New York Red Bulls 21 7 5 9 -12 26
D L L W L
8 Real Salt Lake 20 8 4 8 +2 28
L L D D L
9 Portland Timbers 21 8 4 9 +1 28
D W L W W
9 Orlando City SC 21 7 3 11 -17 24
W L D L W
10 Minnesota United FC 21 7 7 7 -2 28
W L D D D
10 Toronto FC 21 5 9 7 -6 24
W D W D L
11 San Diego 21 7 6 8 +5 27
W L W D W
11 DC United 21 5 9 7 -8 24
L L D D W
12 Philadelphia Union 21 5 6 10 -7 21
D D W W W
12 Los Angeles Galaxy 22 6 8 8 -5 26
D W L D D
13 Seattle Sounders 20 7 4 9 -5 25
D L L L L
13 CF Montreal 21 5 6 10 -10 21
D W D D L
14 Austin 21 5 6 10 -14 21
D W L L L
14 Columbus Crew 21 5 5 11 -6 20
L L L D W
15 Sporting Kansas City 20 4 3 13 -30 15
D L L L W
15 Atlanta United FC 20 5 3 12 -12 18
W W L L D
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 90'+5
    Card · Yellow Card · J. Sands
  • 90'+3
    Goal · Penalty · D. Gazdag
  • 83'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Nariman Akhundzade
  • 83'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Nico Cavallo
  • 82'
    Card · Yellow Card · T. Habroune
  • 77'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · J. Shore
  • 75'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · J. Thiaré
  • 74'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Sekou Tidiany Bangoura
  • 70'
    Goal · Normal Goal · A. Ojeda
  • 64'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · M. Amundsen
  • 63'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · T. Karumanchi
  • 60'
    Card · Yellow Card · Maximilian Arfsten
  • 57'
    Card · Yellow Card · J. Thiaré
  • 55'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · B. Traoré
  • 55'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · M. Jones
  • HALF TIME · 0 – 1
  • 40'
    Card · Yellow Card · T. Gray
  • 28'
    Goal · Penalty · N. Fernández Mercau
12 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 12 BOOKMAKERS
COLUMBUS CREW WIN
1.93
51.8% implied
↑ best 2.07
DRAW
3.63
27.5% implied
↑ best 3.82
NEW YORK CITY FC WIN
3.76
26.6% implied
↑ best 4.03

Market favors Columbus Crew. AI projects NEW YORK CITY FC 95%.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS NEW YORK CITY FC 95% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 1.90 3.60 3.75 +68.3%
Bet365 1.85 3.80 3.90 +69.4%
Betano 1.90 3.70 3.95 +69.7%
Betfair 1.90 3.60 4.00 +70.0%
BetVictor 1.85 3.60 4.00 +70.0%
Dafabet 1.90 3.75 4.00 +70.0%
Marathonbet 2.07 3.60 3.22 +63.9%
Pinnacle 1.90 3.82 4.03 +70.2%
SBO 1.96 3.40 3.52 +66.6%
Superbet 2.00 3.65 3.60 +67.2%
Unibet 1.94 3.60 3.70 +68.0%
William Hill 1.95 3.40 3.50 +66.4%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.26 U 3.75
2.5 O 1.83 U 1.97
3.5 O 3.09 U 1.36
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.70 9 bks
NO
2.05 9 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 2.21
Away -0.5 1.89
Away -0.75 1.67
Away -1 1.45
Away -1.25 1.35
Away -1.5 1.29
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.