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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 0–0 · DRAW 48%
CONF 68 FULL ANALYSIS →
Major League Soccer · REGULAR SEASON - 16 · THU, 23 JUL · 01:30 LOCAL
COLORADO RAPIDS
7TH · 28 PTS · LAST 5:
L W W W L
FT
1 – 0
FULL TIME HT · 0-0
SAN DIEGO
W L W D W
· 11TH · 27 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 90+5' Loïc Williams
GOALS
Nicholas Defreitas-Hansen
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Nicholas Defreitas-Hansen
Colorado Rapids · 93 mins
· 29% pass acc
RATING
7.7
PREDICTIONS
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

0.32
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
0.78
52%
BALL POSSESSION %
48%
7
TOTAL SHOTS
6
1
SHOTS ON TARGET
2
89%
PASS ACCURACY %
86%
5
CORNERS
3
KEY EVENTS 16 events
  1. 19'
    Card · Yellow Card
    C. McVey
    SAN
  2. 22'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Loïc Williams
    COL
  3. 28'
    Card · Yellow Card
    R. Cannon
    COL
  4. 70'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    K. Sargeant · assist I. Murphy
    SAN
  5. 70'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    A. Godoy · assist A. Alvarado
    SAN
  6. 71'
    Card · Yellow Card
    I. Murphy
    SAN
  7. 72'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    G. Minoungou · assist D. Yapi
    COL
  8. 82'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Rafael Navarro
    COL
  9. 83'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    M. Ingvartsen · assist L. Morgan
    SAN
  10. 84'
    Card · Yellow Card
    D. Yapi
    COL
  11. 90'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    R. Cannon · assist Lucas Herrington
    COL
  12. 90'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    R. Holding · assist N. Cobb
    COL
  13. 90'+2
    Subst · Substitution 4
    A. Mighten · assist B. B. Zamble
    SAN
  14. 90'+3
    Subst · Substitution 4
    J. Atencio · assist D. Phillip
    COL
  15. 90'+5
    Card · Yellow Card
    L. Morgan
    SAN
  16. 90'+5
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Loïc Williams · assist P. Aaronson
    COL
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
COLORADO RAPIDS AVG 7.1
SAN DIEGO AVG 7.2
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
0.3
xG
0.8
7.0
TOTAL SHOTS
6.0
1.0
ON TARGET
2.0
3.0
OFF TARGET
1.0
3.0
BLOCKED
3.0
POSSESSION
52.0%
POSSESSION %
48.0%
457.0
PASSES
427.0
89.0%
PASS ACCURACY
86.0%
SET PIECES
5.0
CORNERS
3.0
4.0
OFFSIDES
0.0
DISCIPLINE
17.0
FOULS
7.0
4.0
YELLOW CARDS
2.0
2.0
GK SAVES
1.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
COLORADO RAPIDS 2 shots
Dante Sealy
1/2
SAN DIEGO 2 shots
O. Valakari
1/2
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 0.32 – 0.78
0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.8 0.0 HT 90' H 0.32 A 0.78 KO 30' 60' FT

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 56%
44% A
9
EVENTS LOGGED
7
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 4-3-3 vs 4-2-3-1
4-3-3
4-2-3-1
7.7
41
NICHOLAS
33
K. THOMPS
5
LOïC WILL
 7.2
6
R. HOLDIN
 6.9
4
R. CANNON
12
J. ATENCI
10
P. AARONS
8
H. OJEDIR
 7.0
93
G. MINOUN
9
RAFAEL NA
 6.9
7
DANTE SEA
 7.2
1
C. DOS SA
5
KIERAN SA
 7.7
26
M. DUAH
97
C. MCVEY
 7.0
33
O. VERHOE
6
JEPPE TVE
 7.0
20
A. GODOY
77
A. MIGHTE
 7.3
8
O. VALAKA
10
A. DREYER
7
M. INGVAR
SUBSTITUTES · COLORADO RAPIDS
16
A. Harris
F
15
Ali Fadal
M
22
Lucas Herrin...
D
2
K. Rosenberr...
D
24
N. Cobb
D
31
A. Beaudry
G
77
D. Yapi
F
COACH: Matt Wells
SUBSTITUTES · SAN DIEGO
14
B. B. Zamble
F
19
D. Vazquez
M
15
Pedro Soma
M
70
A. Alvarado
F
2
Willy Kumado
D
25
I. Pilcher
D
32
I. Murphy
D
18
D. Ferree
G
9
L. Morgan
F
COACH: Mikey Varas
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
COL · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

SAN · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
C. Penso
—
COL MANAGER
Matt Wells
head coach
SAN MANAGER
Mikey Varas
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
1
COL WINS
0
DRAWS
1
SAN WINS
50%
50%
3 – 4
TOTAL GOALS · 2 MEETINGS
3.50
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 3 / 2
23 Aug 2026
San Diego
3 – 0
Colorado Rapids
L
15 May 2025
San Diego
2 – 0
Colorado Rapids
L
13 Apr 2025
Colorado Rapids
3 – 2
San Diego
W
COLORADO RAPIDS LAST 5 OVERALL
L W W W L
SAN DIEGO LAST 5 OVERALL
W L W D W
MATCH IMPACT Final 1–0 · result locked
COLORADO RAPIDS #7
Won · already at 28 pts
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
SAN DIEGO #11
Lost · already at 27 pts
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 Vancouver Whitecaps 20 12 4 4 +27 40
W L W D D
1 Nashville SC 21 15 4 2 +26 49
W W W D L
2 Houston Dynamo 21 12 2 7 +4 38
L W W W W
2 Inter Miami 21 11 6 4 +9 39
L D L D W
3 Los Angeles FC 22 10 5 7 +14 35
D L L D W
3 Chicago Fire 20 11 3 6 +11 36
D W W W L
4 New England Revolution 21 10 4 7 +7 34
D W L L D
4 San Jose Earthquakes 21 10 3 8 +6 33
L L L L D
5 FC Dallas 21 9 6 6 +4 33
L W W D L
5 Charlotte 21 9 5 7 +6 32
W D W L W
6 St. Louis City 21 9 6 6 +3 33
W D W D W
6 FC Cincinnati 21 8 7 6 +2 31
D W D W L
7 Colorado Rapids 21 9 1 11 +2 28
L W W W L
7 New York City FC 21 7 6 8 +5 27
D L L D W
8 New York Red Bulls 21 7 5 9 -12 26
D L L W L
8 Real Salt Lake 20 8 4 8 +2 28
L L D D L
9 Portland Timbers 21 8 4 9 +1 28
D W L W W
9 Orlando City SC 21 7 3 11 -17 24
W L D L W
10 Minnesota United FC 21 7 7 7 -2 28
W L D D D
10 Toronto FC 21 5 9 7 -6 24
W D W D L
11 San Diego 21 7 6 8 +5 27
W L W D W
11 DC United 21 5 9 7 -8 24
L L D D W
12 Philadelphia Union 21 5 6 10 -7 21
D D W W W
12 Los Angeles Galaxy 22 6 8 8 -5 26
D W L D D
13 Seattle Sounders 20 7 4 9 -5 25
D L L L L
13 CF Montreal 21 5 6 10 -10 21
D W D D L
14 Austin 21 5 6 10 -14 21
D W L L L
14 Columbus Crew 21 5 5 11 -6 20
L L L D W
15 Sporting Kansas City 20 4 3 13 -30 15
D L L L W
15 Atlanta United FC 20 5 3 12 -12 18
W W L L D
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 90'+5
    Goal · Normal Goal · Loïc Williams
  • 90'+5
    Card · Yellow Card · L. Morgan
  • 90'+3
    Subst · Substitution 4 · J. Atencio
  • 90'+2
    Subst · Substitution 4 · A. Mighten
  • 90'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · R. Holding
  • 90'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · R. Cannon
  • 84'
    Card · Yellow Card · D. Yapi
  • 83'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · M. Ingvartsen
  • 82'
    Card · Yellow Card · Rafael Navarro
  • 72'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · G. Minoungou
  • 71'
    Card · Yellow Card · I. Murphy
  • 70'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · A. Godoy
  • 70'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · K. Sargeant
  • HALF TIME · 0 – 0
  • 28'
    Card · Yellow Card · R. Cannon
  • 22'
    Card · Yellow Card · Loïc Williams
  • 19'
    Card · Yellow Card · C. McVey
12 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 12 BOOKMAKERS
COLORADO RAPIDS WIN
1.96
51% implied
↑ best 2.12
DRAW
3.87
25.8% implied
↑ best 4.01
SAN DIEGO WIN
3.43
29.2% implied
↑ best 3.70

Market favors Colorado Rapids. AI projects DRAW 48%.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS DRAW 48% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 1.90 3.95 3.45 +22.7%
Bet365 1.91 3.80 3.70 +21.7%
Betano 1.98 3.85 3.55 +22.0%
Betfair 1.91 3.90 3.50 +22.4%
BetVictor 1.90 4.00 3.40 +23.0%
Dafabet 1.99 3.95 3.50 +22.7%
Marathonbet 1.92 3.86 3.42 +22.1%
Pinnacle 1.96 4.01 3.62 +23.1%
SBO 1.94 3.84 3.21 +22.0%
Superbet 2.12 3.80 3.15 +21.7%
Unibet 1.98 3.85 3.30 +22.0%
William Hill 1.95 3.60 3.30 +20.2%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.12 U 5.80
2.5 O 1.44 U 2.71
3.5 O 2.09 U 1.73
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.41 9 bks
NO
2.70 9 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 2.15
Away -0.5 1.85
Away -0.75 1.67
Away -1 1.47
Away -1.25 1.38
Away -1.5 1.30
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.