GOALSENSE
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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 1–3 · NEW YORK RED BULLS 95% · Value: Over 2.5 92%
CONF 88 FULL ANALYSIS →
Major League Soccer · REGULAR SEASON - 13 · SAT, 09 MAY · 18:30 LOCAL
CHICAGO FIRE
4TH · 26 PTS · LAST 5:
L L W W W
FT
1 – 3
FULL TIME HT · 0-1
NEW YORK RED BULLS
L L W D W
· 8TH · 22 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 87' Dylan Nealis (OG)
GOALS
⚽ 45' Jorge Ruvalcaba ⚽ 49' Cade Cowell ⚽ 81' Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting (P)
Dylan Nealis
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Dylan Nealis
New York Red Bulls · 97 mins
· 27% pass acc
RATING
7.7
PREDICTIONS
▶ MATCH HIGHLIGHTS

Goals, key moments & recap 1 CLIP

powered by Highlightly
Major League Soccer: Chicago Fire vs New York Red Bulls
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📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

0.91
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
1.48
64%
BALL POSSESSION %
36%
15
TOTAL SHOTS
8
4
SHOTS ON TARGET
4
85%
PASS ACCURACY %
76%
6
CORNERS
3
KEY EVENTS 19 events
  1. 8'
    Var · Goal Disallowed - offside
    Jonathan Bamba
    CHI
  2. 18'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Robert Voloder
    NEW
  3. 45'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Jorge Ruvalcaba · assist Emil Forsberg
    NEW
  4. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Julian Hall · assist Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting
    NEW
  5. 49'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Cade Cowell · assist Ronald Donkor
    NEW
  6. 61'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Emil Forsberg · assist Gustav Berggren
    NEW
  7. 62'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Jonathan Bamba · assist Puso Dithejane
    CHI
  8. 73'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Cade Cowell · assist Rafael Mosquera
    NEW
  9. 73'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Matthew Dos Santos · assist Omar Valencia
    NEW
  10. 80'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Anton Salétros · assist Sergio Oregel
    CHI
  11. 80'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Jonathan Dean · assist Jason Shokalook
    CHI
  12. 80'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Dje Tah D'Avilla · assist Mauricio Pineda
    CHI
  13. 80'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Robert Voloder · assist Justin Che
    NEW
  14. 81'
    Goal · Penalty
    Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting
    NEW
  15. 82'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Maren Haile-Selassie
    CHI
  16. 82'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Jorge Ruvalcaba
    NEW
  17. 85'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Maren Haile-Selassie · assist Dylan Borso
    CHI
  18. 87'
    Goal · Own Goal
    Dylan Nealis
    CHI
  19. 90'+6
    Card · Yellow Card
    Omar Valencia
    NEW
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
CHICAGO FIRE AVG 6.9
NEW YORK RED BULLS AVG 7.4
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
0.9
xG
1.5
15.0
TOTAL SHOTS
8.0
4.0
ON TARGET
4.0
4.0
OFF TARGET
3.0
7.0
BLOCKED
1.0
POSSESSION
64.0%
POSSESSION %
36.0%
567.0
PASSES
321.0
85.0%
PASS ACCURACY
76.0%
SET PIECES
6.0
CORNERS
3.0
4.0
OFFSIDES
1.0
DISCIPLINE
7.0
FOULS
10.0
1.0
YELLOW CARDS
3.0
1.0
GK SAVES
3.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
CHICAGO FIRE 3 shots
Philip Zinckernagel
1/2
Maren Haile-Selassie
0/1
NEW YORK RED BULLS 4 shots
Cade Cowell
2/2
Jorge Ruvalcaba
1/1
Rafael Mosquera
0/1
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 0.91 – 1.48
1.2 0.9 0.6 0.3 1.5 0.0 HT 87' 45' 49' 81' H 0.91 A 1.48 KO 30' 60' FT

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 42%
58% A
8
EVENTS LOGGED
11
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 4-2-3-1 vs 4-1-4-1
4-2-3-1
4-1-4-1
1
CHRIS BRA
15
ANDREW GU
3
JACK ELLI
 6.7
16
JOEL WATE
24
JONATHAN
 7.2
42
DJE TAH D
 7.2
6
ANTON SAL
19
JONATHAN
 6.7
7
MAREN HAI
 6.7
11
PHILIP ZI
9
H. CUYPER
34
ETHAN HOR
56
MATTHEW D
6
ROBERT VO
26
TIM PARKE
 7.7
12
DYLAN NEA
 7.6
15
ADRI MEHM
 7.3
11
JORGE RUV
10
EMIL FORS
48
RONALD DO
 7.2
7
CADE COWE
16
JULIAN HA
SUBSTITUTES · CHICAGO FIRE
20
Jason Shokal...
F
35
Sergio Orege...
M
12
Puso Ditheja...
F
22
Mauricio Pin...
D
27
Dylan Borso
F
4
M. Mbokazi
D
14
Viktor Radoj...
D
44
Josh Cohen
G
8
Chris Muelle...
F
COACH: Mario Barcena
SUBSTITUTES · NEW YORK RED BULLS
79
Rafael Mosqu...
F
39
Nehuen Bened...
M
4
Gustav Bergg...
M
37
Mohammed Sof...
F
3
Jahkeele Mar...
D
2
Justin Che
D
5
Omar Valenci...
D
77
John McCarth...
G
13
Eric Maxim C...
F
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
CHI · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

NEW · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
A. Chapman
—
CHI MANAGER
Mario Barcena
head coach
NEW MANAGER
—
unannounced
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
4
CHI WINS
4
DRAWS
2
NEW WINS
40%
40%
20%
13 – 11
TOTAL GOALS · 10 MEETINGS
2.40
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 5 / 10
27 Jul 2025
Chicago Fire
1 – 0
New York Red Bulls
W
05 Apr 2025
New York Red Bulls
2 – 1
Chicago Fire
L
15 Sep 2024
Chicago Fire
2 – 1
New York Red Bulls
W
13 Apr 2024
New York Red Bulls
0 – 0
Chicago Fire
D
30 Sep 2023
New York Red Bulls
0 – 1
Chicago Fire
W
CHICAGO FIRE LAST 5 OVERALL
L L W W W
NEW YORK RED BULLS LAST 5 OVERALL
L L W D W
MATCH IMPACT Final 1–3 · result locked
CHICAGO FIRE #4
Lost · already at 26 pts
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
NEW YORK RED BULLS #8
Won · already at 22 pts
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 Vancouver Whitecaps 16 10 3 3 +21 33
D L W L W
1 Nashville SC 17 12 3 2 +21 39
L W W W W
2 Los Angeles FC 18 10 3 5 +16 33
W W W W L
2 Inter Miami 17 11 4 2 +13 37
W W W W W
3 San Jose Earthquakes 17 10 3 4 +15 33
D L W L L
3 New England Revolution 16 9 2 5 +7 29
W D L W L
4 Chicago Fire 16 8 2 6 +8 26
L L W W W
4 Real Salt Lake 16 8 2 6 +4 26
L L D W W
5 Houston Dynamo 16 8 2 6 -1 26
W D D W L
5 New York City FC 17 7 4 6 +7 25
W W L D W
6 FC Dallas 17 7 5 5 +7 26
L D W W L
6 Charlotte 17 7 4 6 +3 25
W D W W L
7 St. Louis City 17 7 4 6 0 25
W W W W D
7 FC Cincinnati 17 6 5 6 -1 23
L W W D L
8 New York Red Bulls 17 6 4 7 -11 22
L L W D W
8 Seattle Sounders 16 7 3 6 -1 24
L L L L L
9 Minnesota United FC 17 6 5 6 -5 23
D L D L L
9 DC United 17 5 7 5 -3 22
W D D D L
10 Portland Timbers 17 6 3 8 -1 21
W D W L L
10 Orlando City SC 17 6 2 9 -16 20
W W L D W
11 Los Angeles Galaxy 18 5 6 7 -5 21
D L L D W
11 Columbus Crew 17 5 4 8 -2 19
W L W D L
12 Toronto FC 17 3 7 7 -8 16
L D D L L
12 San Diego 17 5 5 7 +3 20
W L L D W
13 Colorado Rapids 17 6 1 10 +1 19
L W L L W
13 CF Montreal 17 4 3 10 -11 15
L L D D L
14 Austin 17 4 5 8 -13 17
L W L L L
14 Philadelphia Union 17 3 4 10 -9 13
W W L D L
15 Sporting Kansas City 17 4 2 11 -26 14
L W L L W
15 Atlanta United FC 17 3 3 11 -13 12
L D L L D
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 90'+6
    Card · Yellow Card · Omar Valencia
  • 87'
    Goal · Own Goal · Dylan Nealis
  • 85'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Maren Haile-Selassie
  • 82'
    Card · Yellow Card · Jorge Ruvalcaba
  • 82'
    Card · Yellow Card · Maren Haile-Selassie
  • 81'
    Goal · Penalty · Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting
  • 80'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Robert Voloder
  • 80'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Dje Tah D'Avilla
  • 80'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Jonathan Dean
  • 80'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Anton Salétros
  • 73'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Matthew Dos Santos
  • 73'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Cade Cowell
  • 62'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Jonathan Bamba
  • 61'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Emil Forsberg
  • 49'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Cade Cowell
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Julian Hall
  • HALF TIME · 0 – 1
  • 45'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Jorge Ruvalcaba
  • 18'
    Card · Yellow Card · Robert Voloder
  • 8'
    Var · Goal Disallowed - offside · Jonathan Bamba
12 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 12 BOOKMAKERS
CHICAGO FIRE WIN
1.47
68% implied
↑ best 1.51
DRAW
4.89
20.4% implied
↑ best 5.25
NEW YORK RED BUL WIN
5.54
18.1% implied
↑ best 6.10

Market favors Chicago Fire. AI projects NEW YORK RED BULLS 95% · value bet Over 2.5.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS NEW YORK RED BULLS 95% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 1.49 4.90 5.10 +75.4%
888Sport 1.44 4.50 5.00 +75.0%
Bet365 1.45 5.25 5.75 +77.6%
Betano 1.50 5.20 6.10 +78.6%
Betfair 1.44 4.75 5.50 +76.8%
BetVictor 1.40 5.00 6.00 +78.3%
Dafabet 1.51 5.00 5.60 +77.1%
Marathonbet 1.44 4.90 5.75 +77.6%
Pinnacle 1.48 5.11 6.01 +78.4%
SBO 1.44 4.79 5.42 +76.5%
Unibet 1.50 4.75 5.30 +76.1%
William Hill 1.50 4.50 5.00 +75.0%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.08 U 7.21
2.5 O 1.33 U 3.19
3.5 O 1.87 U 1.89
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.44 9 bks
NO
2.61 9 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 3.23
Away -0.5 2.65
Away -0.75 2.41
Away -1 2.14
Away -1.25 1.89
Away -1.5 1.67
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.