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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 1–1 · CERRO PORTENO 38%
CONF 48 FULL ANALYSIS →
Copa Libertadores · GROUP STAGE - 3 · THU, 30 APR · 00:30 LOCAL
CERRO PORTENO
1ST · 10 PTS · LAST 5:
W W W L L
FT
1 – 1
FULL TIME HT · 0-1
PALMEIRAS
L W W W W
· 2ND · 8 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 72' Carlos Miguel (OG)
GOALS
⚽ 33' Jhon Arias
Alexis Martín Arias
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Alexis Martín Arias
Cerro Porteno · 89 mins
· 7% pass acc
RATING
7.9
PREDICTIONS
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

54%
BALL POSSESSION %
79%
8
TOTAL SHOTS
16
3
SHOTS ON TARGET
6
196%
PASS ACCURACY %
483%
3
CORNERS
5
KEY EVENTS 14 events
  1. 20'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Allan
    PAL
  2. 33'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Jhon Arias · assist Allan
    PAL
  3. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Wílder Viera · assist Mateo Klimowicz
    CER
  4. 68'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Rodrigo Gómez · assist Juan Iturbe
    CER
  5. 72'
    Goal · Own Goal
    Carlos Miguel
    CER
  6. 77'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Jonatan Torres · assist Fabrizio Peralta
    CER
  7. 79'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Ramón Sosa · assist Mauricio
    PAL
  8. 84'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Jhon Arias · assist Lucas Evangelista
    PAL
  9. 84'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Agustín Giay · assist Khellven
    PAL
  10. 88'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Arthur Gabriel · assist Jefté
    PAL
  11. 88'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Allan · assist Felipe Anderson
    PAL
  12. 90'+2
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Fabricio Domínguez · assist Cesar Bobadilla
    CER
  13. 90'+2
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Lucas Quintana · assist Rodrigo Melgarejo
    CER
  14. 90'+4
    Card · Yellow Card
    Juan Iturbe
    CER
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
CERRO PORTENO AVG 7.2
PALMEIRAS AVG 7.4
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
8.0
TOTAL SHOTS
16.0
3.0
ON TARGET
6.0
1.0
OFF TARGET
5.0
4.0
BLOCKED
5.0
POSSESSION
54.0%
POSSESSION %
79.0%
286.0
PASSES
576.0
196.0%
PASS ACCURACY
483.0%
SET PIECES
3.0
CORNERS
5.0
26.0
OFFSIDES
11.0
DISCIPLINE
17.0
FOULS
11.0
1.0
YELLOW CARDS
1.0
5.0
GK SAVES
3.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
CERRO PORTENO 1 shots
Juan Iturbe
1/1
PALMEIRAS 3 shots
José López
2/2
Allan
0/1
⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 50%
50% A
7
EVENTS LOGGED
7
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 5-3-2 vs 4-2-2-2
5-3-2
4-2-2-2
7.9
1
ALEXIS MA
35
MARCELO C
22
MATíAS Pé
 6.9
23
GUSTAVO V
14
LUCAS QUI
33
RODRIGO G
20
WíLDER VI
 6.9
5
JORGE MOR
 7.3
2
FABRICIO
19
PABLO VEG
27
JONATAN T
 7.3
1
CARLOS MI
56
ARTHUR GA
 7.2
26
MURILO
15
GUSTAVO G
4
AGUSTíN G
8
ANDREAS P
 7.3
17
MARLON FR
11
JHON ARIA
 7.9
40
ALLAN
19
RAMóN SOS
 7.3
42
JOSé LóPE
SUBSTITUTES · CERRO PORTENO
16
Fabrizio Per...
M
32
Cesar Bobadi...
M
28
C. Franco
F
9
L. Amarilla
F
8
Cristhian Pa...
M
38
Amín Cristal...
M
18
Rodrigo Melg...
D
13
Guillermo Be...
D
25
Roberto Fern...
G
11
Juan Iturbe
F
40
Mateo Klimow...
M
24
Edgar Raul P...
F
COACH: Jorge Achucarro
SUBSTITUTES · PALMEIRAS
48
Larson
M
7
Felipe Ander...
M
30
Lucas Evange...
M
32
Emiliano Mar...
M
50
Luis Pacheco
M
18
Mauricio
M
3
Bruno Fuchs
D
12
Khellven
D
6
Jefté
D
43
Luis Benedet...
D
14
Marcelo Lomb...
G
31
Luighi Hanri
F
COACH: Ferreira Abel
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
CER · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

PAL · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
G. Tejera
—
CER MANAGER
Jorge Achucarro
head coach
PAL MANAGER
Ferreira Abel
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
0
CER WINS
1
DRAWS
6
PAL WINS
14.3%
85.7%
2 – 17
TOTAL GOALS · 7 MEETINGS
2.71
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 5 / 7
21 May 2026
Palmeiras
0 – 1
Cerro Porteno
W
08 May 2025
Cerro Porteno
0 – 2
Palmeiras
L
10 Apr 2025
Palmeiras
1 – 0
Cerro Porteno
L
24 May 2023
Cerro Porteno
0 – 3
Palmeiras
L
21 Apr 2023
Palmeiras
2 – 1
Cerro Porteno
L
CERRO PORTENO LAST 5 OVERALL
W W W L L
PALMEIRAS LAST 5 OVERALL
L W W W W
MATCH IMPACT Final 1–1 · result locked
CERRO PORTENO #1
Lost · already at 10 pts
Playoffs
PALMEIRAS #2
Lost · already at 8 pts
Playoffs
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 Flamengo 6 5 1 0 +12 16
W W D W W
1 Rosario Central 5 4 1 0 +9 13
W W W W D
1 LDU de Quito 6 4 0 2 +3 12
W W L L W
1 Cerro Porteno 5 3 1 1 +2 10
W W D W L
1 Corinthians 5 3 2 0 +6 11
D D W W W
1 U. Catolica 5 3 1 1 +3 10
W D W W L
1 Independ. Rivadavia 5 4 1 0 +7 13
W D W W W
1 Coquimbo Unido 6 3 1 2 +2 10
L W W L W
2 Independiente del Valle 5 3 1 1 +4 10
W L W W D
2 Mirassol 6 4 0 2 +3 12
L W W W L
2 Palmeiras 5 2 2 1 +2 8
L W D W D
2 Platense 5 2 1 2 -1 7
L D W W L
2 Cruzeiro 5 2 2 1 +1 8
D D W L W
2 Bolívar 5 1 2 2 0 5
L D W D L
2 Deportes Tolima 6 2 2 2 +1 8
D L W W L
2 Estudiantes L.P. 6 2 3 1 +1 9
W L D D W
3 UCV 5 2 0 3 -5 6
L W L L W
3 Lanus 6 3 0 3 -4 9
W L L W W
3 Sporting Cristal 5 2 0 3 -1 6
L L W L W
3 Santa Fe 5 1 2 2 -2 5
W D L L D
3 Boca Juniors 5 2 1 2 +2 7
D L L W W
3 Fluminense 5 1 2 2 -2 5
W D L L D
3 Club Nacional 6 2 2 2 -2 8
W D L L W
3 Independiente Medellin 6 2 1 3 -5 7
L W W L D
4 Always Ready 6 1 0 5 -2 3
L L W L L
4 Junior 5 1 1 3 -3 4
W L L L D
4 Penarol 5 0 3 2 -3 3
D D L L D
4 Barcelona SC 5 1 0 4 -6 3
L W L L L
4 Deportivo La Guaira 5 0 3 2 -5 3
L D L D D
4 Universitario 6 1 3 2 -1 6
D D L W L
4 Cusco 6 0 1 5 -8 1
L L D L L
4 Libertad Asuncion 5 0 0 5 -8 0
L L L L L
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 90'+4
    Card · Yellow Card · Juan Iturbe
    Holding
  • 90'+2
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Lucas Quintana
  • 90'+2
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Fabricio Domínguez
  • 88'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Allan
  • 88'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Arthur Gabriel
  • 84'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Agustín Giay
  • 84'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Jhon Arias
  • 79'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Ramón Sosa
  • 77'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Jonatan Torres
  • 72'
    Goal · Own Goal · Carlos Miguel
  • 68'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Rodrigo Gómez
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Wílder Viera
  • HALF TIME · 0 – 1
  • 33'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Jhon Arias
  • 20'
    Card · Yellow Card · Allan
    Roughing
13 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 13 BOOKMAKERS
CERRO PORTENO WIN
4.65
21.5% implied
↑ best 5.10
DRAW
3.21
31.2% implied
↑ best 3.35
PALMEIRAS WIN
1.86
53.8% implied
↑ best 1.91

Market favors Palmeiras. AI projects CERRO PORTENO 38%.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS CERRO PORTENO 38% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 4.50 3.25 1.85 +15.8%
1xBet 4.73 3.31 1.89 +16.9%
888Sport 4.00 3.10 1.91 +13.0%
Bet365 4.75 3.20 1.85 +16.9%
Betano 5.10 3.35 1.88 +18.4%
Betfair 4.75 3.10 1.83 +16.9%
BetVictor 4.75 3.30 1.85 +16.9%
Dafabet 4.60 3.35 1.90 +16.3%
Marathonbet 4.60 3.22 1.84 +16.3%
Pinnacle 5.10 3.27 1.85 +18.4%
SBO 3.96 3.01 1.84 +12.7%
Unibet 5.00 3.30 1.78 +18.0%
William Hill 4.60 3.00 1.85 +16.3%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.45 U 2.63
2.5 O 2.39 U 1.56
3.5 O 4.61 U 1.17
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
2.12 10 bks
NO
1.65 10 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 1.24
Away -0.5 1.20
Away -0.75 1.09
Away -1 1.01
Away -1.25 1.01
Away -1.5 1.01
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.