GOALSENSE
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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 3–0 · BORUSSIA DORTMUND 97% · Value: Over 2.5 92%
CONF 88 FULL ANALYSIS →
Bundesliga · REGULAR SEASON - 31 · SUN 26 APR · 15:30 LOCAL
BORUSSIA DORTMUND
2ND · 67 PTS · LAST 5:
L L W W W
FT
4 – 0
FULL TIME HT · 3-0
SC FREIBURG
W W W W L
· 8TH · 43 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 8' Maximilian Beier ⚽ 14' Serhou Guirassy ⚽ 31' Ramy Bensebaini ⚽ 87' Fábio Silva
GOALS
Ramy Bensebaini
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Ramy Bensebaini
Borussia Dortmund · 95 mins
⚽ 1 goal · 🅰 1 assist · 57% pass acc · 1 shots on
RATING
9.2
PREDICTIONS
▶ MATCH HIGHLIGHTS

Goals, key moments & recap 2 CLIPS

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Bundesliga: Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg
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Bundesliga: Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

2.87
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
0.50
61%
BALL POSSESSION %
39%
17
TOTAL SHOTS
7
5
SHOTS ON TARGET
4
86%
PASS ACCURACY %
79%
5
CORNERS
0
KEY EVENTS 16 events
  1. 8'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Maximilian Beier · assist Ramy Bensebaini
    BOR
  2. 14'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Serhou Guirassy · assist Julian Brandt
    BOR
  3. 31'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Ramy Bensebaini · assist Julian Ryerson
    BOR
  4. 55'
    Var · Goal Disallowed - offside
    Lukas Kübler
    SC
  5. 65'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Jobe Bellingham
    BOR
  6. 67'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Vincenzo Grifo · assist Jan-Niklas Beste
    SC
  7. 67'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Igor Matanović · assist Maximilian Philipp
    SC
  8. 74'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Samuele Inacio · assist Daniel Svensson
    BOR
  9. 75'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Derry Scherhant · assist Cyriaque Irié
    SC
  10. 75'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Philipp Lienhart · assist Anthony Jung
    SC
  11. 84'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Julian Brandt · assist Carney Chukwuemeka
    BOR
  12. 84'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Serhou Guirassy · assist Fábio Silva
    BOR
  13. 84'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Nicolas Höfler · assist Rouven Tarnutzer
    SC
  14. 87'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Fábio Silva
    BOR
  15. 88'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Jobe Bellingham · assist Salih Özcan
    BOR
  16. 89'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Maximilian Beier · assist Mathis Albert
    BOR
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
BORUSSIA DORTMUND AVG 8.2
SC FREIBURG AVG 6.6
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
2.9
xG
0.5
17.0
TOTAL SHOTS
7.0
5.0
ON TARGET
4.0
5.0
OFF TARGET
3.0
7.0
BLOCKED
0.0
POSSESSION
61.0%
POSSESSION %
39.0%
543.0
PASSES
357.0
86.0%
PASS ACCURACY
79.0%
SET PIECES
5.0
CORNERS
0.0
0.0
OFFSIDES
2.0
DISCIPLINE
19.0
FOULS
10.0
1.0
YELLOW CARDS
0.0
4.0
GK SAVES
1.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
BORUSSIA DORTMUND 3 shots
Ramy Bensebaini
1/1
Maximilian Beier
1/1
Julian Ryerson
0/1
SC FREIBURG 1 shots
Cyriaque Irié
1/1
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 2.87 – 0.50
2.3 1.7 1.1 0.6 2.9 0.0 HT 8' 14' 31' 87' H 2.87 A 0.50 KO 30' 60' FT

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 63%
37% A
10
EVENTS LOGGED
6
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 3-4-2-1 vs 4-2-3-1
3-4-2-1
4-2-3-1
8.0
1
GREGOR KO
 9.2
5
RAMY BENS
 7.9
4
NICO SCHL
3
WALDEMAR
 8.2
14
MAXIMILIA
7
JOBE BELL
20
MARCEL SA
 7.9
26
JULIAN RY
40
SAMUELE I
10
JULIAN BR
9
SERHOU GU
1
NOAH ATUB
30
CHRISTIAN
3
PHILIPP L
 6.7
43
BRUNO OGB
17
LUKAS KüB
27
NICOLAS H
8
MAXIMILIA
 6.7
32
VINCENZO
9
LUCAS HöL
7
DERRY SCH
 6.6
31
IGOR MATA
SUBSTITUTES · BORUSSIA DORTMUND
41
Mathis Alber...
F
6
Salih Özcan
M
2
Yan Couto
D
17
Carney Chukw...
M
24
Daniel Svens...
D
39
Filippo Mané
D
49
Luca Reggian...
D
33
Alexander Me...
G
21
Fábio Silva
F
COACH: Niko Kovac
SUBSTITUTES · SC FREIBURG
19
Jan-Niklas B...
D
22
Cyriaque Iri...
F
69
Rouven Tarnu...
M
65
Karl Steinma...
D
29
Philipp Treu
D
5
Anthony Jung
D
21
Florian Müll...
G
26
Maximilian P...
F
COACH: Julian Schuster
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
BOR · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

SC · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
Robin Braun, Germany
—
BOR MANAGER
Niko Kovac
head coach
SC MANAGER
Julian Schuster
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
8
BOR WINS
1
DRAWS
1
SC WINS
80%
10%
10%
34 – 9
TOTAL GOALS · 10 MEETINGS
4.30
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 5 / 10
14 Dec 25
SC Freiburg
1 – 1
Borussia Dortmund
D
05 Apr 25
SC Freiburg
1 – 4
Borussia Dortmund
W
23 Nov 24
Borussia Dortmund
4 – 0
SC Freiburg
W
09 Feb 24
Borussia Dortmund
3 – 0
SC Freiburg
W
16 Sep 23
SC Freiburg
2 – 4
Borussia Dortmund
W
BORUSSIA DORTMUND LAST 5 OVERALL
L L W W W
SC FREIBURG LAST 5 OVERALL
W W W W L
MATCH IMPACT Final 4–0 · result locked
BORUSSIA DORTMUND #2
Won · already at 67 pts
Champions League
SC FREIBURG #8
Lost · already at 43 pts
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 Bayern München 31 26 4 1 +81 82
W W W W W
2 Borussia Dortmund 31 20 7 4 +34 67
W L L W W
3 RB Leipzig 31 19 5 7 +24 62
W W W W W
4 VfB Stuttgart 31 17 6 8 +20 57
D L W L W
5 1899 Hoffenheim 31 17 6 8 +16 57
W W D L L
6 Bayer Leverkusen 31 16 7 8 +20 55
W L W W D
7 Eintracht Frankfurt 31 11 10 10 -2 43
D L W D L
8 SC Freiburg 31 12 7 12 -8 43
L W W L W
9 FC Augsburg 31 10 7 14 -16 37
D W D D L
10 FSV Mainz 05 31 8 10 13 -10 34
L D L W W
11 Borussia Mönchengladbach 31 7 11 13 -14 32
D D L D D
12 Werder Bremen 31 8 8 15 -18 32
D W L L W
13 Union Berlin 31 8 8 15 -20 32
L L L D L
14 1. FC Köln 31 7 10 14 -8 31
L D W D D
15 Hamburger SV 31 7 10 14 -16 31
L L L D L
16 FC St. Pauli 31 6 8 17 -27 26
L D L D L
17 VfL Wolfsburg 31 6 7 18 -25 25
D W L L L
18 1. FC Heidenheim 31 5 7 19 -31 22
W L W D D
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 89'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Maximilian Beier
  • 88'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Jobe Bellingham
  • 87'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Fábio Silva
  • 84'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Nicolas Höfler
  • 84'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Serhou Guirassy
  • 84'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Julian Brandt
  • 75'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Philipp Lienhart
  • 75'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Derry Scherhant
  • 74'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Samuele Inacio
  • 67'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Igor Matanović
  • 67'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Vincenzo Grifo
  • 65'
    Card · Yellow Card · Jobe Bellingham
    Roughing
  • 55'
    Var · Goal Disallowed - offside · Lukas Kübler
  • HALF TIME · 3 – 0
  • 31'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Ramy Bensebaini
  • 14'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Serhou Guirassy
  • 8'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Maximilian Beier
13 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 13 BOOKMAKERS
BORUSSIA DORTMUN WIN
1.40
71.4% implied
↑ best 1.45
DRAW
4.94
20.2% implied
↑ best 5.20
SC FREIBURG WIN
7.18
13.9% implied
↑ best 7.70

Market favors Borussia Dortmund. AI projects BORUSSIA DORTMUND 97% · value bet Over 2.5.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS BORUSSIA DORTMUND 97% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 1.41 4.75 6.60 +26.1%
1xBet 1.44 5.18 7.70 +27.6%
888Sport 1.40 4.50 6.50 +25.6%
Bet365 1.40 5.00 7.00 +25.6%
Betano 1.45 5.10 7.10 +28.0%
Betfair 1.40 5.00 7.50 +25.6%
BetVictor 1.36 5.00 7.50 +23.5%
Dafabet 1.41 5.20 7.20 +26.1%
Marathonbet 1.42 5.10 7.60 +26.6%
Pinnacle 1.41 5.11 7.53 +26.1%
SBO 1.38 4.83 7.05 +24.5%
Unibet 1.37 5.00 7.50 +24.0%
William Hill 1.40 4.50 6.50 +25.6%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.15 U 5.07
2.5 O 1.52 U 2.47
3.5 O 2.34 U 1.61
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.71 10 bks
NO
2.07 10 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 3.64
Away -0.5 2.93
Away -0.75 2.62
Away -1 2.30
Away -1.25 1.98
Away -1.5 1.74
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.