GOALSENSE
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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 3–2 · BELGIUM 45% · Value: Over 2.5 78%
CONF 58 FULL ANALYSIS →
World Cup · ROUND OF 32 · WED, 01 JUL · 20:00 LOCAL
BELGIUM
10TH · 2 PTS · LAST 5:
L W W D D
AET
3 – 2
AFTER EXTRA TIME HT · 0-1
SENEGAL
W L L D
· 8TH · 3 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 86' Romelu Lukaku ⚽ 89' Youri Tielemans ⚽ 120+5' Youri Tielemans (P)
GOALS
⚽ 25' H. Diarra ⚽ 51' I. Sarr
Youri Tielemans
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Youri Tielemans
Belgium · Captain · 120 mins
⚽ 2 goals · 54% pass acc · 2 shots on
RATING
8.3
PREDICTIONS
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

1.80
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
3.54
52%
BALL POSSESSION %
48%
19
TOTAL SHOTS
19
5
SHOTS ON TARGET
5
86%
PASS ACCURACY %
84%
4
CORNERS
2
KEY EVENTS 20 events
  1. 25'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    H. Diarra
    SEN
  2. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Charles De Ketelaere · assist Romelu Lukaku
    BEL
  3. 51'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    I. Sarr · assist Moussa Niakhaté
    SEN
  4. 56'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Kevin De Bruyne · assist Nicolas Raskin
    BEL
  5. 56'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Jérémy Doku · assist Dodi Lukebakio
    BEL
  6. 63'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Hans Vanaken · assist Diego Moreira
    BEL
  7. 64'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Brandon Mechele
    BEL
  8. 66'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Pape Gueye · assist Lamine Camara
    SEN
  9. 67'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Lamine Camara
    SEN
  10. 73'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    I. Ndiaye · assist Ibrahim Mbaye
    SEN
  11. 73'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    H. Diarra · assist Pape Matar Sarr
    SEN
  12. 78'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Maxim De Cuyper · assist Thomas Meunier
    BEL
  13. 86'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Romelu Lukaku · assist Thomas Meunier
    BEL
  14. 89'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Youri Tielemans · assist L. Trossard
    BEL
  15. 90'
    Card · Yellow Card
    BEL
  16. 93'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    S. Mané · assist Nicolas Jackson
    SEN
  17. 93'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Ismail Jakobs · assist El Hadji Malick Diouf
    SEN
  18. 96'
    Subst · Substitution 6
    I. Gueye · assist Bara Ndiaye
    SEN
  19. 109'
    Subst · Substitution 6
    L. Trossard · assist Amadou Onana
    BEL
  20. 120'+5
    Goal · Penalty
    Youri Tielemans
    BEL
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
BELGIUM AVG 7.6
SENEGAL AVG 7.2
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
1.8
xG
3.5
19.0
TOTAL SHOTS
19.0
5.0
ON TARGET
5.0
9.0
OFF TARGET
11.0
5.0
BLOCKED
3.0
POSSESSION
52.0%
POSSESSION %
48.0%
699.0
PASSES
639.0
86.0%
PASS ACCURACY
84.0%
SET PIECES
4.0
CORNERS
2.0
2.0
OFFSIDES
2.0
DISCIPLINE
22.0
FOULS
12.0
1.0
YELLOW CARDS
1.0
3.0
GK SAVES
3.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
BELGIUM 6 shots
Youri Tielemans
2/3
Romelu Lukaku
1/1
L. Trossard
1/1
Thomas Meunier
0/1
SENEGAL 7 shots
I. Sarr
1/4
H. Diarra
1/2
S. Mané
1/1
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 1.80 – 3.54
2.8 2.1 1.4 0.7 3.5 0.0 HT 86' 89' 120' 25' 51' H 1.80 A 3.54 KO 30' 60' FT

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 55%
45% A
11
EVENTS LOGGED
9
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 4-2-3-1 vs 4-3-3
4-2-3-1
4-3-3
1
THIBAUT C
5
MAXIM DE
 7.3
3
ARTHUR TH
4
BRANDON M
21
TIMOTHY C
20
HANS VANA
 8.3
8
YOURI TIE
11
JéRéMY DO
7
KEVIN DE
 7.3
10
L. TROSSA
17
CHARLES D
23
MORY DIAW
14
ISMAIL JA
19
MOUSSA NI
 6.9
6
PATHé ISM
 6.6
15
KRéPIN DI
26
PAPE GUEY
5
I. GUEYE
 7.3
21
H. DIARRA
 7.0
10
S. MANé
 8.3
18
I. SARR
13
I. NDIAYE
SUBSTITUTES · BELGIUM
16
K. De Winter
D
18
Joaquin Seys
D
25
Nathan Ngoy
D
6
Axel Witsel
M
22
Alexis Saele...
F
12
S. Lammens
G
13
Mike Penders
G
24
Amadou Onana
M
15
Thomas Meuni...
D
19
Diego Moreir...
F
14
Dodi Lukebak...
F
23
Nicolas Rask...
M
9
Romelu Lukak...
F
26
Matías Ferná...
F
COACH: Rudi Garcia
SUBSTITUTES · SENEGAL
4
Abdoulaye Se...
D
24
Antoine Mend...
D
2
Mamadou Sarr
D
7
Assane Diao
F
9
Ahmadou Bamb...
F
3
Kalidou Koul...
D
1
Yehvann Diou...
G
22
Bara Ndiaye
M
11
Nicolas Jack...
F
25
El Hadji Mal...
D
20
Ibrahim Mbay...
F
17
Pape Matar S...
M
8
Lamine Camar...
M
12
Cherif Ndiay...
F
COACH: Bouna Thiaw Pape
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
BEL · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

SEN · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
Said Martinez, Honduras
—
BEL MANAGER
Rudi Garcia
head coach
SEN MANAGER
Bouna Thiaw Pape
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
0
BEL WINS
1
DRAWS
0
SEN WINS
100%
BELGIUM LAST 5 OVERALL
L W W D D
SENEGAL LAST 5 OVERALL
W L L D
MATCH IMPACT Final 3–2 · result locked
BELGIUM #1
Won · already at 5 pts
Round of 32
SENEGAL #3
Lost · already at 3 pts
Round of 32
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 Mexico 3 3 0 0 +6 9
L W W W W
1 Congo DR 3 1 1 1 +1 4
L W L D
1 England 3 2 1 0 +4 7
W L W W W
1 Colombia 3 2 1 0 +3 7
L W D W W
1 Argentina 3 3 0 0 +7 9
L W W W W
1 France 3 3 0 0 +8 9
L L W W W
1 Spain 3 2 1 0 +5 7
W W W W W
1 Belgium 3 1 2 0 +4 5
L W W W D
1 Netherlands 3 2 1 0 +6 7
L W W D
1 Germany 3 2 0 1 +6 6
L L W W
1 USA 3 2 0 1 +4 6
L W L W W
1 Brazil 3 2 1 0 +6 7
L W W W D
1 Switzerland 3 2 1 0 +4 7
L W W W W
2 Norway 3 2 0 1 +1 6
L W W L W
2 Austria 3 1 1 1 0 4
L D L W
2 Portugal 3 1 2 0 +5 5
L W D W D
2 Croatia 3 2 0 1 0 6
L W W L
2 Sweden 3 1 1 1 0 4
L D L W
2 Cape Verde Islands 3 0 3 0 0 3
L D D D
2 Egypt 3 1 2 0 +2 5
L W D W D
2 Japan 3 1 2 0 +4 5
L D W D
2 Ivory Coast 3 2 0 1 +2 6
L W L W
2 Australia 3 1 1 1 0 4
L D L W
2 Morocco 3 2 1 0 +3 7
L W W W W
2 Canada 3 1 1 1 +5 4
L W L W D
2 South Africa 3 1 1 1 -1 4
L W D L
3 Senegal 3 1 0 2 +2 3
L W L L
3 Algeria 3 1 1 1 -2 4
L D W L
3 Congo DR 3 1 1 1 +1 4
L W L D
3 Ghana 3 1 1 1 0 4
L L D W
3 Ghana 3 1 1 1 0 4
L L D W
3 Uruguay 3 0 2 1 -1 2
L D D
3 Iran 3 0 3 0 0 3
D D D
3 Sweden 3 1 1 1 0 4
L D L W
3 Ecuador 3 1 1 1 0 4
L W D L
3 Paraguay 3 1 1 1 -2 4
L W D W L
3 Scotland 3 1 0 2 -3 3
L L W
3 Bosnia & Herzegovina 3 1 1 1 -1 4
L W L D
3 South Korea 3 1 0 2 -1 3
L L W
4 Iraq 3 0 0 3 -11 0
L L L
4 Jordan 3 0 0 3 -5 0
L L L
4 Uzbekistan 3 0 0 3 -9 0
L L L
4 Panama 3 0 0 3 -4 0
L L L
4 Ecuador 3 1 1 1 0 4
L W D L
4 Saudi Arabia 3 0 2 1 -4 2
D L D
4 New Zealand 3 0 1 2 -6 1
L L D
4 Tunisia 3 0 0 3 -10 0
L L L
4 Czech Republic 3 0 1 2 -4 1
L D L
4 Qatar 3 0 1 2 -8 1
L L D
4 Haiti 3 0 0 3 -6 0
L L L
4 Türkiye 3 1 0 2 -2 3
W L L
4 Curaçao 3 0 1 2 -8 1
L D L
5 Bosnia & Herzegovina 3 1 1 1 -1 4
L W L D
5 New Zealand 1 0 1 0 0 1
D
6 Spain 1 0 1 0 0 1
D
6 Algeria 3 1 1 1 -2 4
L D W L
7 Croatia 2 1 0 1 -1 3
W L
7 Portugal 1 0 1 0 0 1
W D
7 Paraguay 3 1 1 1 -2 4
L W D W L
8 Senegal 3 1 0 2 +2 3
L W L L
9 Czech Republic 2 0 1 1 -1 1
D L
9 Saudi Arabia 2 0 1 1 -4 1
L D
9 Iran 3 0 3 0 0 3
D D D
10 South Korea 3 1 0 2 -1 3
L L W
10 Cape Verde Islands 2 0 2 0 0 2
D D
10 Belgium 2 0 2 0 0 2
D D
11 Scotland 3 1 0 2 -3 3
L L W
11 Panama 1 0 0 1 -1 0
L
11 Jordan 1 0 0 1 -2 0
L
12 Uruguay 3 0 2 1 -1 2
L D D
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 120'+5
    Goal · Penalty · Youri Tielemans
  • 109'
    Subst · Substitution 6 · L. Trossard
  • 96'
    Subst · Substitution 6 · I. Gueye
  • 93'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Ismail Jakobs
  • 93'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · S. Mané
  • 90'
    Card · Yellow Card
  • 89'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Youri Tielemans
  • 86'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Romelu Lukaku
  • 78'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Maxim De Cuyper
  • 73'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · H. Diarra
  • 73'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · I. Ndiaye
  • 67'
    Card · Yellow Card · Lamine Camara
    Roughing
  • 66'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Pape Gueye
  • 64'
    Card · Yellow Card · Brandon Mechele
    Roughing
  • 63'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Hans Vanaken
  • 56'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Jérémy Doku
  • 56'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Kevin De Bruyne
  • 51'
    Goal · Normal Goal · I. Sarr
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Charles De Ketelaere
  • HALF TIME · 0 – 1
  • 25'
    Goal · Normal Goal · H. Diarra
12 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 12 BOOKMAKERS
BELGIUM WIN
2.13
46.9% implied
↑ best 2.21
DRAW
3.30
30.3% implied
↑ best 3.50
SENEGAL WIN
3.66
27.3% implied
↑ best 3.85

Market favors Belgium. AI projects BELGIUM 45% · value bet Over 2.5.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS BELGIUM 45% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 2.14 3.20 3.45 +8.8%
1xBet 2.14 3.50 3.80 +11.4%
Bet365 2.10 3.25 3.75 +9.2%
Betano 2.20 3.25 3.75 +9.2%
Betfair 2.10 3.25 3.75 +9.2%
BetVictor 2.05 3.20 3.70 +8.8%
Dafabet 2.15 3.25 3.75 +9.2%
Marathonbet 2.12 3.46 3.76 +11.1%
Pinnacle 2.15 3.37 3.85 +10.3%
SBO 2.21 3.22 3.33 +8.9%
Unibet 2.14 3.20 3.70 +8.8%
William Hill 2.05 3.40 3.30 +10.6%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.26 U 3.78
2.5 O 1.87 U 1.95
3.5 O 3.02 U 1.37
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.65 9 bks
NO
2.13 9 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 2.04
Away -0.5 1.72
Away -0.75 1.55
Away -1 1.36
Away -1.25 1.31
Away -1.5 1.24
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.