GOALSENSE
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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 3–2 · ATLETICO MADRID 92% · Value: Over 2.5 95%
CONF 88 FULL ANALYSIS →
La Liga · REGULAR SEASON - 32 · SAT 25 APR · 19:00 LOCAL
ATLETICO MADRID
4TH · 60 PTS · LAST 5:
L L L W L
FT
3 – 2
FULL TIME HT · 0-1
ATHLETIC CLUB
W L L W L
· 10TH · 41 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 49' Antoine Griezmann ⚽ 54' Alexander Sorloth ⚽ 90+3' Alexander Sorloth
GOALS
⚽ 23' Aitor Paredes ⚽ 90+7' Gorka Guruzeta
Alexander Sorloth
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Alexander Sorloth
Atletico Madrid · 98 mins
⚽ 2 goals · 11% pass acc · 3 shots on
RATING
9.3
PREDICTIONS
▶ MATCH HIGHLIGHTS

Goals, key moments & recap 1 CLIP

powered by Highlightly
La Liga: Atlético Madrid vs Athletic Club
Watch on Youtube ↗
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

1.57
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
0.74
54%
BALL POSSESSION %
46%
6
TOTAL SHOTS
12
4
SHOTS ON TARGET
4
85%
PASS ACCURACY %
82%
3
CORNERS
4
KEY EVENTS 15 events
  1. 23'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Aitor Paredes · assist Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta
    ATH
  2. 49'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Antoine Griezmann
    ATL
  3. 54'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Alexander Sorloth · assist Alejandro Baena
    ATL
  4. 58'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Pablo Barrios · assist Johnny Cardoso
    ATL
  5. 63'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Marcos Llorente · assist Nahuel Molina
    ATL
  6. 63'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Antoine Griezmann · assist Nicolás González
    ATL
  7. 63'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Yuri Berchiche · assist Adama Boiro
    ATH
  8. 63'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Unai Gómez · assist Oihan Sancet
    ATH
  9. 70'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Nico Williams · assist Robert Navarro
    ATH
  10. 70'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta · assist Mikel Vesga
    ATH
  11. 70'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Iñaki Williams · assist Álex Berenguer
    ATH
  12. 72'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Koke · assist Obed Vargas
    ATL
  13. 72'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Giuliano Simeone · assist Robin Le Normand
    ATL
  14. 90'+3
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Alexander Sorloth · assist Nahuel Molina
    ATL
  15. 90'+7
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Gorka Guruzeta · assist Alejandro Rego
    ATH
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
ATLETICO MADRID AVG 7.6
ATHLETIC CLUB AVG 6.9
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
1.6
xG
0.7
6.0
TOTAL SHOTS
12.0
4.0
ON TARGET
4.0
2.0
OFF TARGET
6.0
0.0
BLOCKED
2.0
POSSESSION
54.0%
POSSESSION %
46.0%
554.0
PASSES
460.0
85.0%
PASS ACCURACY
82.0%
SET PIECES
3.0
CORNERS
4.0
2.0
OFFSIDES
1.0
DISCIPLINE
8.0
FOULS
12.0
2.0
GK SAVES
1.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
ATLETICO MADRID 6 shots
Alexander Sorloth
3/5
Antoine Griezmann
1/1
ATHLETIC CLUB 6 shots
Gorka Guruzeta
2/4
Aitor Paredes
1/1
Mikel Vesga
0/1
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 1.57 – 0.74
1.3 0.9 0.6 0.3 1.6 0.0 HT 49' 54' 90' 23' 90' H 1.57 A 0.74 KO 30' 60' FT

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 53%
47% A
8
EVENTS LOGGED
7
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 4-4-2 vs 4-2-3-1
4-4-2
4-2-3-1
13
JAN OBLAK
3
MATTEO RU
 7.0
15
CLéMENT L
18
MARC PUBI
14
MARCOS LL
 7.3
10
ALEJANDRO
 7.3
6
KOKE
8
PABLO BAR
20
GIULIANO
 9.3
9
ALEXANDER
 7.2
7
ANTOINE G
1
UNAI SIMó
17
YURI BERC
 7.3
4
AITOR PAR
3
DANIEL VI
2
ANDONI GO
 6.7
30
ALEJANDRO
 7.0
16
IñIGO RUI
10
NICO WILL
20
UNAI GóME
9
IñAKI WIL
 7.0
11
GORKA GUR
SUBSTITUTES · ATLETICO MADRID
1
Juan Musso
G
34
Julio Díaz
M
32
Javier Boñar
D
4
Rodrigo Mend...
M
31
Salvi Esquiv...
G
21
Obed Vargas
M
24
Robin Le Nor...
D
23
Nicolás Gonz...
F
16
Nahuel Molin...
D
5
Johnny Cardo...
M
19
Julián Alvar...
F
COACH: Diego Simeone
SUBSTITUTES · ATHLETIC CLUB
5
Yeray Álvare...
D
14
Aymeric Lapo...
D
22
Nico Serrano
F
49
E. Garcia
M
12
Jesús Areso
D
27
Alex Padilla
G
6
Mikel Vesga
M
7
Álex Berengu...
F
23
Robert Navar...
M
8
Oihan Sancet
M
19
Adama Boiro
D
25
Urko Izeta
F
COACH: Ernesto Valverde
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
ATL · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

ATH · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
Jesus Gil Manzano, Spain
—
ATL MANAGER
Diego Simeone
head coach
ATH MANAGER
Ernesto Valverde
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
5
ATL WINS
0
DRAWS
5
ATH WINS
50%
50%
7 – 10
TOTAL GOALS · 10 MEETINGS
1.70
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 5 / 10
06 Dec 25
Athletic Club
1 – 0
Atletico Madrid
L
01 Mar 25
Atletico Madrid
1 – 0
Athletic Club
W
31 Aug 24
Athletic Club
0 – 1
Atletico Madrid
W
27 Apr 24
Atletico Madrid
3 – 1
Athletic Club
W
16 Dec 23
Athletic Club
2 – 0
Atletico Madrid
L
ATLETICO MADRID LAST 5 OVERALL
L L L W L
ATHLETIC CLUB LAST 5 OVERALL
W L L W L
MATCH IMPACT Final 3–2 · result locked
ATLETICO MADRID #4
Won · already at 60 pts
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
ATHLETIC CLUB #10
Lost · already at 41 pts
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 Barcelona 33 28 1 4 +57 85
W W W W W
2 Real Madrid 33 23 5 5 +37 74
D W D L W
3 Villarreal 33 20 5 8 +21 65
W D W L W
4 Atletico Madrid 33 18 6 9 +19 60
W L L L L
5 Real Betis 33 12 14 7 +8 50
D W D D L
6 Getafe 33 13 5 15 -6 44
L W L W W
7 Celta Vigo 33 11 11 11 +2 44
L L L W L
8 Real Sociedad 33 11 10 12 0 43
D L D W L
9 Osasuna 33 11 9 13 -1 42
W L D D W
10 Athletic Club 33 12 5 16 -12 41
L W L L W
11 Rayo Vallecano 33 9 12 12 -8 39
D W L W L
12 Valencia 33 10 9 14 -11 39
W D L L W
13 Elche 33 9 11 13 -6 38
W W W L W
14 Espanyol 32 10 8 14 -12 38
L L D L L
15 Girona 33 9 11 13 -14 38
L L D W L
16 Alaves 33 9 9 15 -11 36
W L D D W
17 Mallorca 33 9 8 16 -10 35
L D W W L
18 Sevilla 33 9 7 17 -15 34
L L W L L
19 Levante 32 8 8 16 -13 32
W W L W D
20 Oviedo 33 6 10 17 -25 28
L D W W L
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 90'+7
    Goal · Normal Goal · Gorka Guruzeta
  • 90'+3
    Goal · Normal Goal · Alexander Sorloth
  • 72'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Giuliano Simeone
  • 72'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Koke
  • 70'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Iñaki Williams
  • 70'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta
  • 70'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Nico Williams
  • 63'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Unai Gómez
  • 63'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Yuri Berchiche
  • 63'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Antoine Griezmann
  • 63'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Marcos Llorente
  • 58'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Pablo Barrios
  • 54'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Alexander Sorloth
  • 49'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Antoine Griezmann
  • HALF TIME · 0 – 1
  • 23'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Aitor Paredes
13 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 13 BOOKMAKERS
ATLETICO MADRID WIN
2.09
47.8% implied
↑ best 2.48
DRAW
3.56
28.1% implied
↑ best 3.70
ATHLETIC CLUB WIN
3.43
29.2% implied
↑ best 3.75

Market favors Atletico Madrid. AI projects ATLETICO MADRID 92% · value bet Over 2.5.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS ATLETICO MADRID 92% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 1.94 3.55 3.65 +40.5%
1xBet 2.48 3.70 2.92 +51.7%
888Sport 2.00 3.40 3.30 +42.0%
Bet365 2.00 3.70 3.50 +42.0%
Betano 1.98 3.65 3.75 +41.5%
Betfair 2.00 3.50 3.60 +42.0%
BetVictor 2.10 3.50 3.40 +44.4%
Dafabet 2.05 3.60 3.65 +43.2%
Marathonbet 2.39 3.64 2.95 +50.2%
Pinnacle 2.07 3.65 3.68 +43.7%
SBO 2.03 3.42 3.41 +42.7%
Unibet 2.07 3.55 3.50 +43.7%
William Hill 2.00 3.40 3.30 +42.0%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.26 U 3.70
2.5 O 1.82 U 1.99
3.5 O 3.03 U 1.36
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.67 10 bks
NO
2.12 10 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 2.00
Away -0.5 1.79
Away -0.75 1.55
Away -1 1.35
Away -1.25 1.28
Away -1.5 1.22
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.