GOALSENSE
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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 1–1 · ATLAS 38%
CONF 41 FULL ANALYSIS →
Liga MX · APERTURA - 3 · SUN, 02 AUG · 01:05 LOCAL
ATLAS
6TH · 26 PTS · LAST 5:
W W L L W
FT
0 – 2
FULL TIME HT · 0-1
MONTERREY
L W L W L
· 13TH · 18 PTS · LAST 5
GOALS
⚽ 28' Diego Rossi ⚽ 90+7' Lucas Ocampos (P)
Lucas Ocampos
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Lucas Ocampos
Monterrey · 99 mins
⚽ 1 goal · 22% pass acc · 1 shots on
RATING
8.6
PREDICTIONS
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

0.43
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
1.81
49%
BALL POSSESSION %
51%
9
TOTAL SHOTS
12
1
SHOTS ON TARGET
4
82%
PASS ACCURACY %
85%
6
CORNERS
2
KEY EVENTS 22 events
  1. 18'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Victor Rios
    ATL
  2. 19'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Jorge Sánchez
    ATL
  3. 28'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Diego Rossi
    MON
  4. 40'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Luís Esteves
    ATL
  5. 45'+3
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Luís Esteves · assist Sergio Hernandez
    ATL
  6. 45'+3
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Jorge Sánchez · assist Gustavo Ferrareis
    ATL
  7. 47'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Manuel Capasso
    ATL
  8. 49'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Edgar Zaldívar
    ATL
  9. 57'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Alonso Aceves
    MON
  10. 64'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Luca Orellano · assist Ricardo Chávez
    MON
  11. 64'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Alonso Aceves · assist Gerardo Arteaga
    MON
  12. 71'
    Card · Red Card
    Duk
    ATL
  13. 75'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Jesús Corona · assist Fidel Ambríz
    MON
  14. 75'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Orbelín Pineda · assist Jorge Rodríguez
    MON
  15. 77'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Arturo González · assist Paulo Ramírez
    ATL
  16. 84'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Edgar Zaldívar · assist Jose Lozano
    ATL
  17. 84'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Ryan Mmaee · assist Jose Martin
    ATL
  18. 86'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Óliver Torres · assist Iker Fimbres
    MON
  19. 88'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Carlos Salcedo
    MON
  20. 90'+5
    Card · Red Card
    Milton Valenzuela
    ATL
  21. 90'+5
    Card · Red Card
    Carlos Salcedo
    MON
  22. 90'+7
    Goal · Penalty
    Lucas Ocampos
    MON
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
ATLAS AVG 6.9
MONTERREY AVG 7.5
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
0.4
xG
1.8
9.0
TOTAL SHOTS
12.0
1.0
ON TARGET
4.0
5.0
OFF TARGET
6.0
3.0
BLOCKED
2.0
POSSESSION
49.0%
POSSESSION %
51.0%
394.0
PASSES
421.0
82.0%
PASS ACCURACY
85.0%
SET PIECES
6.0
CORNERS
2.0
DISCIPLINE
13.0
FOULS
17.0
5.0
YELLOW CARDS
2.0
2.0
RED CARDS
1.0
3.0
GK SAVES
1.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
ATLAS 2 shots
Ryan Mmaee
0/2
MONTERREY 4 shots
Lucas Ocampos
1/3
Victor Guzmán
0/1
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 0.43 – 1.81
1.4 1.1 0.7 0.4 1.8 0.0 HT 28' 90' H 0.43 A 1.81 KO 30' 60' FT

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 55%
45% A
12
EVENTS LOGGED
10
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 4-2-2-2 vs 3-4-2-1
4-2-2-2
3-4-2-1
7.0
12
CAMILO VA
16
MILTON VA
21
RODRIGO S
28
MANUEL CA
3
JORGE SáN
27
VICTOR RI
 6.9
6
EDGAR ZAL
10
LUíS ESTE
 6.9
58
ARTURO GO
 6.7
8
RYAN MMAE
11
DUK
 7.2
22
LUIS CáRD
19
ALONSO AC
13
CARLOS SA
 7.3
4
VICTOR GU
 7.2
17
JESúS COR
 7.2
8
ÓLIVER TO
25
ORBELíN P
10
LUCA OREL
9
DIEGO ROS
 8.6
7
LUCAS OCA
99
HUGO CUYP
SUBSTITUTES · ATLAS
208
Jesús Guillé...
M
15
Paulo Ramíre...
D
17
Jose Lozano
D
44
Juan José Pu...
M
13
Gaddi Aguirr...
D
22
Antonio Sánc...
G
23
Sergio Herna...
M
2
Gustavo Ferr...
F
203
Jose Martin
F
COACH: Hernan Crespo
SUBSTITUTES · MONTERREY
27
Roberto de l...
F
11
Iker Fimbres
M
5
Fidel Ambríz
M
18
Cesar Garza
M
30
Jorge Rodríg...
M
21
Luis Reyes
D
31
César Ramos
G
3
Gerardo Arte...
D
2
Ricardo Cháv...
D
32
Uroš Đurđevi...
F
COACH: Matias Almeyda
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
ATL · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

MON · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
Jorge Abraham Camacho Peregrina, Mexico
—
ATL MANAGER
Hernan Crespo
head coach
MON MANAGER
Matias Almeyda
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
0
ATL WINS
3
DRAWS
7
MON WINS
30%
70%
6 – 19
TOTAL GOALS · 10 MEETINGS
2.50
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 5 / 10
12 Apr 2026
Atlas
0 – 0
Monterrey
D
27 Jul 2025
Monterrey
3 – 1
Atlas
L
30 Jan 2025
Atlas
3 – 3
Monterrey
D
03 Nov 2024
Monterrey
4 – 0
Atlas
L
17 Mar 2024
Atlas
1 – 2
Monterrey
L
ATLAS LAST 5 OVERALL
W W L L W
MONTERREY LAST 5 OVERALL
L W L W L
MATCH IMPACT Final 0–2 · result locked
ATLAS #6
Lost · already at 26 pts
Playoffs
MONTERREY #13
Won · already at 18 pts
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 U.N.A.M. - Pumas 17 10 6 1 +17 36
L D W L D
2 Guadalajara Chivas 17 11 3 3 +16 36
L D W L D
3 Cruz Azul 17 9 6 2 +13 33
W D W D W
4 Pachuca 17 9 4 4 +6 31
L W W W L
5 Toluca 17 8 6 3 +12 30
L L W L L
6 Atlas 17 7 5 5 -2 26
L L W D W
7 Tigres UANL 17 7 4 6 +10 25
L W W D D
8 Club America 17 7 4 6 +3 25
D D L W W
9 Club Tijuana 17 5 8 4 +2 23
D W D W W
10 Leon 17 7 1 9 -10 22
L L W W W
11 Club Queretaro 17 4 8 5 -4 20
W D D W D
12 FC Juarez 17 5 4 8 -6 19
W L L L D
13 Monterrey 17 5 3 9 -2 18
L W L D L
14 Atletico San Luis 17 5 3 9 -3 18
L W L D W
15 Necaxa 17 5 3 9 -6 18
L D D L W
16 Mazatlán 17 4 3 10 -15 15
L W D L L
17 Puebla 17 3 4 10 -13 13
L L L L D
18 Santos Laguna 17 3 3 11 -18 12
W L L L D
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 90'+7
    Goal · Penalty · Lucas Ocampos
  • 90'+5
    Card · Red Card · Carlos Salcedo
    Unsportsmanlike conduct
  • 90'+5
    Card · Red Card · Milton Valenzuela
    Unsportsmanlike conduct
  • 88'
    Card · Yellow Card · Carlos Salcedo
    Foul
  • 86'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Óliver Torres
  • 84'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Ryan Mmaee
  • 84'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Edgar Zaldívar
  • 77'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Arturo González
  • 75'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Orbelín Pineda
  • 75'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Jesús Corona
  • 71'
    Card · Red Card · Duk
    Unsportsmanlike conduct
  • 64'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Alonso Aceves
  • 64'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Luca Orellano
  • 57'
    Card · Yellow Card · Alonso Aceves
    Foul
  • 49'
    Card · Yellow Card · Edgar Zaldívar
    Foul
  • 47'
    Card · Yellow Card · Manuel Capasso
    Foul
  • HALF TIME · 0 – 1
  • 45'+3
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Jorge Sánchez
  • 45'+3
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Luís Esteves
  • 40'
    Card · Yellow Card · Luís Esteves
    Foul
  • 28'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Diego Rossi
  • 19'
    Card · Yellow Card · Jorge Sánchez
    Foul
  • 18'
    Card · Yellow Card · Victor Rios
    Foul
14 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 14 BOOKMAKERS
ATLAS WIN
2.57
38.9% implied
↑ best 2.70
DRAW
3.17
31.5% implied
↑ best 3.37
MONTERREY WIN
2.70
37% implied
↑ best 2.80

Market favors Atlas. AI projects ATLAS 38%.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS ATLAS 38% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 2.56 3.20 2.72 +6.8%
1xBet 2.54 3.18 2.70 +6.6%
888Sport 2.45 3.00 2.60 +4.7%
Bet365 2.70 3.10 2.80 +5.7%
Betano 2.60 3.15 2.77 +6.3%
Betfair 2.50 3.20 2.75 +6.8%
BetVictor 2.55 3.25 2.70 +7.2%
Dafabet 2.65 3.25 2.75 +7.2%
Marathonbet 2.54 3.18 2.70 +6.6%
Pinnacle 2.64 3.37 2.80 +8.3%
SBO 2.53 3.10 2.56 +5.7%
Superbet 2.57 3.20 2.72 +6.8%
Unibet 2.63 3.20 2.60 +6.8%
William Hill 2.45 3.00 2.60 +4.7%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.31 U 3.23
2.5 O 2.01 U 1.77
3.5 O 3.47 U 1.27
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.74 11 bks
NO
1.98 11 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 1.65
Away -0.5 1.49
Away -0.75 1.34
Away -1 1.19
Away -1.25 1.15
Away -1.5 1.13
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.