GOALSENSE
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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 2–0 · ARSENAL 72%
CONF 61 FULL ANALYSIS →
Premier League · REGULAR SEASON - 34 · SAT, 25 APR · 16:30 LOCAL
ARSENAL
1ST · 85 PTS · LAST 5:
D W W W W
FT
1 – 0
FULL TIME HT · 1-0
NEWCASTLE
L W D W L
· 12TH · 49 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 9' Eberechi Eze
GOALS
Piero Hincapié
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Piero Hincapié
Arsenal · 94 mins
· 14% pass acc
RATING
7.5
PREDICTIONS
▶ MATCH HIGHLIGHTS

Goals, key moments & recap 4 CLIPS

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Premier League: Arsenal vs Newcastle United
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Premier League: Arsenal vs Newcastle United
Premier League: Arsenal vs Newcastle United
Premier League: Arsenal vs Newcastle United
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

0.85
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
0.82
46%
BALL POSSESSION %
54%
11
TOTAL SHOTS
12
4
SHOTS ON TARGET
3
81%
PASS ACCURACY %
86%
7
CORNERS
1
KEY EVENTS 13 events
  1. 9'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Eberechi Eze · assist Kai Havertz
    ARS
  2. 34'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Kai Havertz · assist Viktor Gyökeres
    ARS
  3. 53'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Eberechi Eze · assist Gabriel Martinelli
    ARS
  4. 57'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Dan Burn
    NEW
  5. 66'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Jacob Murphy · assist Harvey Barnes
    NEW
  6. 66'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    William Osula · assist Yoane Wissa
    NEW
  7. 71'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Gabriel Martinelli
    ARS
  8. 74'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Nick Pope
    NEW
  9. 75'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Bruno Guimarães · assist Nick Woltemade
    NEW
  10. 81'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Martín Zubimendi · assist Myles Lewis-Skelly
    ARS
  11. 81'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Noni Madueke · assist Bukayo Saka
    ARS
  12. 86'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Declan Rice
    ARS
  13. 86'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Joe Willock · assist Anthony Elanga
    NEW
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
ARSENAL AVG 7.3
NEWCASTLE AVG 7.2
MATCH STATS ARS vs A
ATTACK
0.9
xG
0.8
11.0
TOTAL SHOTS
12.0
4.0
ON TARGET
3.0
2.0
OFF TARGET
5.0
5.0
BLOCKED
4.0
POSSESSION
46.0%
POSSESSION %
54.0%
391.0
PASSES
457.0
81.0%
PASS ACCURACY
86.0%
SET PIECES
7.0
CORNERS
1.0
2.0
OFFSIDES
1.0
DISCIPLINE
12.0
FOULS
10.0
2.0
YELLOW CARDS
2.0
3.0
GK SAVES
3.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
ARSENAL 4 shots
Eberechi Eze
1/3
Martin Ødegaard
1/1
NEWCASTLE 2 shots
Bruno Guimarães
0/1
Sandro Tonali
1/1
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 0.85 – 0.82
0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.9 0.0 HT 9' ARS 0.85 A 0.82 KO 30' 60' FT

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
ARS 54%
46% A
7
EVENTS LOGGED
6
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 4-3-3 vs 4-1-4-1
4-3-3
4-1-4-1
1
DAVID RAY
 7.5
5
PIERO HIN
6
GABRIEL M
2
WILLIAM S
 6.9
4
BEN WHITE
41
DECLAN RI
 7.3
36
MARTíN ZU
 7.3
8
MARTIN ØD
 7.3
10
EBERECHI
29
KAI HAVER
20
NONI MADU
 7.3
1
NICK POPE
33
DAN BURN
 7.3
4
SVEN BOTM
 7.3
12
M. THIAW
67
LEWIS MIL
 6.9
8
SANDRO TO
41
JACOB RAM
 7.3
39
BRUNO GUI
28
JOE WILLO
23
JACOB MUR
18
WILLIAM O
SUBSTITUTES · ARSENAL
11
Gabriel Mart...
F
19
Leandro Tros...
F
9
Gabriel Jesu...
F
7
Bukayo Saka
F
56
Max Dowman
M
49
Myles Lewis-...
D
3
Cristhian Mo...
D
13
Kepa Arrizab...
G
14
Viktor Gyöke...
F
COACH: Mikel Arteta
SUBSTITUTES · NEWCASTLE
27
Nick Woltema...
F
20
Anthony Elan...
F
11
Harvey Barne...
M
9
Yoane Wissa
F
37
Alex Murphy
D
3
Lewis Hall
D
2
Kieran Tripp...
D
32
Aaron Ramsda...
G
62
Sean Neave
F
COACH: Eddie Howe
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
ARS · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

NEW · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
S. Barrott
—
ARS MANAGER
Mikel Arteta
head coach
NEW MANAGER
Eddie Howe
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
6
ARS WINS
0
DRAWS
4
NEW WINS
60%
40%
13 – 10
TOTAL GOALS · 10 MEETINGS
2.30
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 5 / 10
28 Sep 2025
Newcastle
1 – 2
Arsenal
W
18 May 2025
Arsenal
1 – 0
Newcastle
W
02 Nov 2024
Newcastle
1 – 0
Arsenal
L
24 Feb 2024
Arsenal
4 – 1
Newcastle
W
04 Nov 2023
Newcastle
1 – 0
Arsenal
L
ARSENAL LAST 5 OVERALL
D W W W W
NEWCASTLE LAST 5 OVERALL
L W D W L
MATCH IMPACT Final 1–0 · result locked
ARSENAL #1
Won · already at 85 pts
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
NEWCASTLE #12
Lost · already at 49 pts
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 Arsenal 38 26 7 5 +44 85
W W W W W
2 Manchester City 38 23 9 6 +42 78
L D W W D
3 Manchester United 38 20 11 7 +19 71
W W D W W
4 Aston Villa 38 19 8 11 +7 65
W W D L L
5 Liverpool 38 17 9 12 +10 60
D L D L W
6 Bournemouth 38 13 18 7 +4 57
D D W W D
7 Sunderland 38 14 12 12 -6 54
W W D D L
8 Brighton 38 14 11 13 +6 53
L L W L W
9 Brentford 38 14 11 13 +3 53
D D L W L
10 Chelsea 38 14 10 14 +6 52
L W D L L
11 Fulham 38 15 7 16 -4 52
W D L L W
12 Newcastle 38 14 7 17 -2 49
L W D W L
13 Everton 38 13 10 15 -3 49
L L D D L
14 Leeds 38 11 14 13 -7 47
L W D W D
15 Crystal Palace 38 11 12 15 -10 45
L D L D L
16 Nottingham Forest 38 11 11 16 -3 44
D L D W W
17 Tottenham 38 10 11 17 -9 41
W L D W W
18 West Ham 38 10 9 19 -19 39
W L L L W
19 Burnley 38 4 10 24 -37 22
D L D L L
20 Wolves 38 3 11 24 -41 20
D D L D L
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 86'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Joe Willock
  • 86'
    Card · Yellow Card · Declan Rice
    Roughing
  • 81'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Noni Madueke
  • 81'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Martín Zubimendi
  • 75'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Bruno Guimarães
  • 74'
    Card · Yellow Card · Nick Pope
    Roughing
  • 71'
    Card · Yellow Card · Gabriel Martinelli
    Tripping
  • 66'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · William Osula
  • 66'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Jacob Murphy
  • 57'
    Card · Yellow Card · Dan Burn
    Roughing
  • 53'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Eberechi Eze
  • HALF TIME · 1 – 0
  • 34'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Kai Havertz
  • 9'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Eberechi Eze
13 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 13 BOOKMAKERS
ARSENAL WIN
1.43
69.9% implied
↑ best 1.47
DRAW
4.75
21.1% implied
↑ best 5.00
NEWCASTLE WIN
7.19
13.9% implied
↑ best 8.05

Market favors Arsenal. AI projects ARSENAL 72%.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS ARSENAL 72% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER ARS X 2 EDGE
10Bet 1.44 4.45 6.60 +2.6%
1xBet 1.46 4.89 8.05 +3.5%
888Sport 1.44 4.40 6.50 +2.6%
Bet365 1.42 4.75 7.00 +1.6%
Betano 1.47 4.80 7.50 +4.0%
Betfair 1.40 5.00 7.50 +0.6%
BetVictor 1.40 4.75 6.00 +0.6%
Dafabet 1.44 4.96 7.14 +2.6%
Marathonbet 1.44 4.95 7.90 +2.6%
Pinnacle 1.43 4.92 7.86 +2.1%
SBO 1.38 4.56 7.43 -0.5%
Unibet 1.40 4.90 7.50 +0.6%
William Hill 1.44 4.40 6.50 +2.6%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.21 U 4.14
2.5 O 1.71 U 2.15
3.5 O 2.72 U 1.44
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.85 10 bks
NO
1.90 10 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 3.61
Away -0.5 2.82
Away -0.75 2.56
Away -1 2.22
Away -1.25 1.91
Away -1.5 1.68
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.