GOALSENSE
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Primeira Liga · REGULAR SEASON - 34 · SAT, 16 MAY · 17:00 LOCAL
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AROUCA
⏱ KICK-OFF IN
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HOURS
:
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MINS
:
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SECS
Estádio Municipal de Arouca · 7,000 capacity
TONDELA
CLAUDE AI · BLENDED FROM 4 MODELS
PRE-MATCH MODEL
CONF 48/100 MED
🔮 PREDICTED FULL-TIME SCORE
ARO
1 – 0
TON
most likely scoreline · 16.9% probability
AI PICKS AROUCA TO WIN 52%
🤖 AI BREAKDOWN

HOW AI SEES THE MATCH

PRE-MATCH
ARO WIN 52%
DRAW 28%
TON WIN 20%
h + d + a = 100% · stacked share
💰 AI BETTING TIP
DOUBLE CHANCE — 1X

Tight 1X2 — single-side too risky. Double chance covers 80% of outcomes with smaller payout.

CONF 80% 4 models
🤖 AI ANALYSIS

Arouca slight home favourite despite thin data; Tondela's poor away form and league position support draw/home outcome.

🤖 AI REASONING why AI picked this
WHY AROUCA FAVORED
52%
Arouca 10th (39 pts) vs Tondela 17th (28 pts) — 11-point gap favours home
+25.0%
Tondela road form (WDLLW) worse than Arouca home (DWWLW); away struggles key
+20.0%
WHY TONDELA CHALLENGED
20%
Head-to-head: Tondela won 3-1 in January but older data; current form shifted
+15.0%
🤖 CONTEXT · NEUTRAL FACTORS
  • Arouca 10th (39 pts) vs Tondela 17th (28 pts) — 11-point gap favours home
  • Tondela road form (WDLLW) worse than Arouca home (DWWLW); away struggles key
🤖 AI LIVE TIMELINE

PROBABILITY TIMELINE

How AI re-projects after each event
H DRAW A
100% 50% 0% KO 15' 30' HT 60' 75' FT
Probabilities re-blended at each event · 0 events marked → Derived from goal events + remaining time
🤖 AI SCORE MATRIX

SCORELINE PROBABILITY

All possible scorelines · Poisson from xG
0% 16.9%+
0
1
2
3
4
5
6+
0
15.0
11.5
4.4
1.1
0.2
·
·
1
16.9
13.0
5.0
1.3
0.3
·
·
2
9.6
7.4
2.8
0.7
0.1
·
·
3
3.6
2.8
1.1
0.3
·
·
·
4
1.0
0.8
0.3
0.1
·
·
·
5
0.2
0.2
0.1
·
·
·
·
6+
·
·
·
·
·
·
·
MOST LIKELY · TOP 5
1 — 0 16.9%
0 — 0 15.0%
1 — 1 13.0%
0 — 1 11.5%
2 — 0 9.6%
Top 5 = 65.9% · rest 34.1%