GOALSENSE
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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 1–0 · AROUCA 48%
CONF 38 FULL ANALYSIS →
Primeira Liga · REGULAR SEASON - 2 · SUN, 16 AUG · 17:00 LOCAL
AROUCA
8TH · 42 PTS · LAST 5:
W W W D L
FT
4 – 0
FULL TIME HT · 3-0
MOREIRENSE
D D L W L
· 7TH · 43 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 23' Maracás (OG) ⚽ 30' Jose Fontán ⚽ 45+1' Ivan Barbero ⚽ 90+1' Dylan Nandín
GOALS
Jose Fontán
👑
⭐ PLAYER OF THE MATCH
Jose Fontán
Arouca · 85 mins
⚽ 1 goal · 77% pass acc · 2 shots on
RATING
8.0
PREDICTIONS
📊 90 MIN TOTALS

Finalised · Match completed

1.50
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
0.49
51%
BALL POSSESSION %
49%
13
TOTAL SHOTS
5
5
SHOTS ON TARGET
1
86%
PASS ACCURACY %
85%
5
CORNERS
2
KEY EVENTS 21 events
  1. 13'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Maracás
    MOR
  2. 16'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Javi Sánchez
    ARO
  3. 23'
    Goal · Own Goal
    Maracás
    ARO
  4. 30'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Jose Fontán · assist Hyun-ju Lee
    ARO
  5. 41'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Ivan Barbero
    ARO
  6. 44'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Kiko
    MOR
  7. 45'+1
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Ivan Barbero · assist Naïs Djouahra
    ARO
  8. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Afonso Vieira · assist João Veloso
    MOR
  9. 46'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Guilherme Liberato · assist Dinis Pinto
    MOR
  10. 55'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Nile John
    MOR
  11. 59'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Ivan Barbero · assist Dylan Nandín
    ARO
  12. 63'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Landerson · assist Kiko Bondoso
    MOR
  13. 65'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Leandro Santos
    MOR
  14. 72'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Hyun-ju Lee · assist Brian Mansilla
    ARO
  15. 72'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Alfonso Trezza · assist Pablo Gozálbez
    ARO
  16. 72'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Rodrigo Alonso · assist Mateja Stjepanović
    MOR
  17. 75'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Dylan Nandín
    ARO
  18. 79'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Taichi Fukui · assist Pedro Santos
    ARO
  19. 80'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Espen Van Ee · assist Mateo Flores
    ARO
  20. 84'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Leandro Santos · assist Michael Dacosta Gonzalez
    MOR
  21. 90'+1
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Dylan Nandín · assist Naïs Djouahra
    ARO
PLAYER RATINGS · TOP 5 EACH 0–10 scale
AROUCA AVG 7.4
MOREIRENSE AVG 6.8
MATCH STATS H vs A
ATTACK
1.5
xG
0.5
13.0
TOTAL SHOTS
5.0
5.0
ON TARGET
1.0
5.0
OFF TARGET
3.0
3.0
BLOCKED
1.0
POSSESSION
51.0%
POSSESSION %
49.0%
487.0
PASSES
472.0
86.0%
PASS ACCURACY
85.0%
SET PIECES
5.0
CORNERS
2.0
1.0
OFFSIDES
0.0
DISCIPLINE
10.0
FOULS
9.0
3.0
YELLOW CARDS
4.0
1.0
GK SAVES
2.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
AROUCA 6 shots
Taichi Fukui
2/3
Jose Fontán
2/2
Naïs Djouahra
0/1
MOREIRENSE 2 shots
Nile John
0/1
João Veloso
0/1
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 1.50 – 0.49
1.2 0.9 0.6 0.3 1.5 0.0 HT 23' 30' 45' 90' H 1.50 A 0.49 KO 30' 60' FT

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 57%
43% A
12
EVENTS LOGGED
9
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 4-2-3-1 vs 4-2-3-1
4-2-3-1
4-2-3-1
12
IGNACIO D
18
OREST LEB
 8.0
3
JOSE FONT
15
JAVI SáNC
 7.0
28
TIAGO ESG
 7.2
8
TAICHI FU
6
ESPEN VAN
 7.7
7
NAïS DJOU
14
HYUN-JU L
19
ALFONSO T
17
IVAN BARB
13
ANDRé FER
27
KIKO
26
MARACáS
 7.3
66
GILBERTO
2
LEANDRO S
65
GUILHERME
 6.7
23
NILE JOHN
11
LANDERSON
21
RODRIGO A
89
AFONSO VI
9
ALEXANDRE
SUBSTITUTES · AROUCA
89
Pedro Santos
M
21
Mateo Flores
M
24
Brian Mansil...
F
9
Fally Mayulu
F
10
Pablo Gozálb...
M
37
Mario Climen...
D
5
Boris Popovi...
D
71
Martim Duart...
G
1
Jakub Vinarč...
G
23
Dylan Nandín
F
77
Si-hoo Park
F
COACH: Vasco Seabra
SUBSTITUTES · MOREIRENSE
8
Mateja Stjep...
M
17
Álvaro Martí...
D
4
Kevyn Montei...
D
1
Aranha
G
10
Kiko Bondoso
F
20
João Veloso
M
76
Dinis Pinto
D
44
Michael Daco...
F
COACH: Vasco Costa
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
ARO · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

MOR · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
Andre Filipe Domingues Narciso, Portugal
—
ARO MANAGER
Vasco Seabra
head coach
MOR MANAGER
Vasco Costa
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
3
ARO WINS
2
DRAWS
5
MOR WINS
30%
20%
50%
7 – 11
TOTAL GOALS · 10 MEETINGS
1.80
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 5 / 10
21 Mar 2026
Moreirense
0 – 1
Arouca
W
02 Nov 2025
Arouca
0 – 2
Moreirense
L
24 Jan 2025
Arouca
1 – 0
Moreirense
W
18 Aug 2024
Moreirense
3 – 1
Arouca
L
17 Mar 2024
Moreirense
1 – 0
Arouca
L
AROUCA LAST 5 OVERALL
W W W D L
MOREIRENSE LAST 5 OVERALL
D D L W L
MATCH IMPACT Final 4–0 · result locked
AROUCA #8
Won · already at 42 pts
MOREIRENSE #7
Lost · already at 43 pts
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 FC Porto 34 28 4 2 +48 88
W L W W W
2 Sporting CP 34 25 7 2 +65 82
W W W D D
3 Benfica 34 23 11 0 +49 80
W D D W W
4 SC Braga 34 16 11 7 +28 59
D D D L W
5 Famalicao 34 15 11 8 +13 56
W D D W D
6 GIL Vicente 34 13 11 10 +9 50
L L D W L
7 Moreirense 34 12 7 15 -12 43
D L W L W
8 Arouca 34 12 6 16 -17 42
W W D L W
9 Guimaraes 34 12 6 16 -12 42
L L L W W
10 Estoril 34 10 9 15 -3 39
L D D L L
11 Alverca 34 10 9 15 -17 39
L D L W L
12 Rio Ave 34 8 12 14 -22 36
D L D L D
13 Santa Clara 34 9 9 16 -9 36
L W D W D
14 Nacional 34 9 7 18 -8 34
W L L W W
15 Estrela 34 6 12 16 -18 30
D D L L L
16 Casa Pia 34 6 12 16 -26 30
D W L L L
17 Tondela 34 6 10 18 -28 28
L W W D L
18 AVS 34 3 12 19 -40 21
D W W D D
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
COMMENTARY
  • 90'+1
    Goal · Normal Goal · Dylan Nandín
  • 84'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Leandro Santos
  • 80'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Espen Van Ee
  • 79'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Taichi Fukui
  • 75'
    Card · Yellow Card · Dylan Nandín
  • 72'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Rodrigo Alonso
  • 72'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Alfonso Trezza
  • 72'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Hyun-ju Lee
  • 65'
    Card · Yellow Card · Leandro Santos
  • 63'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Landerson
  • 59'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Ivan Barbero
  • 55'
    Card · Yellow Card · Nile John
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Guilherme Liberato
  • 46'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Afonso Vieira
  • HALF TIME · 3 – 0
  • 45'+1
    Goal · Normal Goal · Ivan Barbero
  • 44'
    Card · Yellow Card · Kiko
  • 41'
    Card · Yellow Card · Ivan Barbero
  • 30'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Jose Fontán
  • 23'
    Goal · Own Goal · Maracás
  • 16'
    Card · Yellow Card · Javi Sánchez
  • 13'
    Card · Yellow Card · Maracás
13 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 13 BOOKMAKERS
AROUCA WIN
1.97
50.8% implied
↑ best 2.04
DRAW
3.29
30.4% implied
↑ best 3.40
MOREIRENSE WIN
3.94
25.4% implied
↑ best 4.24

Market favors Arouca. AI projects AROUCA 48%.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS AROUCA 48% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 1.95 3.30 3.90 +0.7%
1xBet 2.02 3.39 4.16 +1.5%
888Sport 1.95 3.10 3.90 -1.3%
Bet365 1.95 3.40 4.00 +1.6%
Betano 1.98 3.35 4.00 +1.1%
Betfair 2.00 3.25 4.00 +0.2%
BetVictor 1.91 3.25 3.80 +0.2%
Dafabet 2.00 3.40 4.10 +1.6%
Marathonbet 1.94 3.26 4.00 +0.3%
Pinnacle 1.99 3.37 4.24 +1.3%
SBO 1.96 3.25 3.72 +0.2%
Unibet 2.04 3.35 3.50 +1.1%
William Hill 1.95 3.10 3.90 -1.3%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.35 U 3.05
2.5 O 2.11 U 1.71
3.5 O 3.77 U 1.24
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.86 10 bks
NO
1.86 10 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 2.16
Away -0.5 1.84
Away -0.75 1.60
Away -1 1.38
Away -1.25 1.30
Away -1.5 1.23
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.