Tercera División RFEF - Group 16
·
·
ARNEDO
FT
2
–
1
FULL TIME
VILLEGAS
⚽ 33' M. Andreica
⚽ 79' J. Vidorreta Larumbe
GOALS
⚽ 52' —
CLAUDE AI · BLENDED FROM 4 MODELS
FINAL · VERIFIED
CONF 45/100
MED
🔮 PREDICTED FULL-TIME SCORE
ARN
VIL
most likely scoreline · 14.9% probability
AI PICKS
DRAW TO WIN
48%
FT
2 – 1
→
🤖
AI PROJECTED FT
1 – 1
🤖 AI BREAKDOWN
HOW AI SEES THE MATCH
FINAL · VERIFIED
h + d + a = 100% · stacked share
💰 AI BETTING TIP
BTTS YES
AI projects 75% — the safest goals market. Combined value over single 1X2 pick at this confidence.
CONF 75%
BTTS YES ✓
avoid: 1X2 single
4 models
🤖 AI ANALYSIS
Tied at 72' with 18 minutes left; draw is most likely outcome given low-chance pattern.
🤖 AI REASONING
why AI picked this
WHY ARNEDO CHALLENGED
Scoreline tied at minute 72 — draw probability peaks late in match
CONTEXT
No significant xG or momentum events recorded — defensive stability
CONTEXT
Tercera División context: lower-league matches often settle as draws
CONTEXT
WHY VILLEGAS CHALLENGED
Scoreline tied at minute 72 — draw probability peaks late in match
CONTEXT
No significant xG or momentum events recorded — defensive stability
CONTEXT
Tercera División context: lower-league matches often settle as draws
CONTEXT
🤖 CONTEXT · NEUTRAL FACTORS
- Scoreline tied at minute 72 — draw probability peaks late in match
- No significant xG or momentum events recorded — defensive stability
- Tercera División context: lower-league matches often settle as draws
🤖 AI LIVE TIMELINE
PROBABILITY TIMELINE
How AI re-projects after each event
H
DRAW
A
Probabilities re-blended at each event · 3 events marked
→ Derived from goal events + remaining time
🤖 AI SCORE MATRIX
SCORELINE PROBABILITY
All possible scorelines · Poisson from xG
0%
14.9%+
0
1
2
3
4
5
6+
0
13.5
12.2
5.5
1.6
0.4
0.1
·
1
14.9
13.4
6.0
1.8
0.4
0.1
·
2
8.2
7.4
3.3
1.0
0.2
·
·
3
3.0
2.7
1.2
0.4
0.1
·
·
4
0.8
0.7
0.3
0.1
·
·
·
5
0.2
0.2
0.1
·
·
·
·
6+
·
·
·
·
·
·
·
MOST LIKELY · TOP 5
1 — 0
14.9%
0 — 0
13.5%
1 — 1
13.4%
0 — 1
12.2%
2 — 0
8.2%
Top 5 = 62.2% · rest 37.8%