GOALSENSE
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AI PREDICTION Projects FT 1–0 · DRAW 42%
CONF 48 FULL ANALYSIS →
Primeira Liga · REGULAR SEASON - 2 · SAT, 15 AUG · 14:30 LOCAL
ALVERCA
11TH · 39 PTS · LAST 5:
L L D L W
37'
0 – 0
ESTRELA
D D D L L
· 15TH · 30 PTS · LAST 5
⚽ 58' Ian Luccas ⚽ 62' Vivaldo
GOALS
⚽ 51' Leandro Antonetti ⚽ 69' Abraham Marcus
PREDICTIONS
⚡ LIVE TRACKER

Last action · Estrela · 90'

LIVE
ESTRELA ALVERCA

Last event marker · ball-position telemetry not available for this league

📈 MOMENTUM · ATTACK WAVE

Last 30 minutes · who has the upper hand

ALVERCA ESTRELA
ALVERCA ESTRELA 7' 22' 37'
Event density · 3-min buckets
📊 LIVE STATS

Updates every refresh · Minute 37'

1.75
⚡ EXPECTED GOALS (xG)
1.29
46%
BALL POSSESSION %
54%
14
TOTAL SHOTS
10
4
SHOTS ON TARGET
7
81%
PASS ACCURACY %
84%
2
CORNERS
0
KEY EVENTS 21 events
  1. 14'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Davy Gui
    ALV
  2. 17'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Luan Patrick
    EST
  3. 35'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Stefan Leković
    EST
  4. 43'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Eddy Doué
    EST
  5. 44'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Vivaldo
    ALV
  6. 51'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Leandro Antonetti
    EST
  7. 58'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Ian Luccas · assist Isaac James
    ALV
  8. 59'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Davy Gui · assist Rayan Lucas
    ALV
  9. 62'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Vivaldo · assist Rayan Lucas
    ALV
  10. 64'
    Subst · Substitution 1
    Robinho · assist Emerson Pedro Vanga
    EST
  11. 64'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Jefferson Encada · assist Max Scholze
    EST
  12. 64'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Ianis Stoica · assist Bénito
    EST
  13. 69'
    Goal · Normal Goal
    Abraham Marcus
    EST
  14. 74'
    Card · Red Card
    Chiquinho
    ALV
  15. 75'
    Subst · Substitution 2
    Isaac James · assist Francisco Chissumba
    ALV
  16. 83'
    Subst · Substitution 3
    Bastien Meupiyou · assist Marco Essimi
    ALV
  17. 83'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Ian Luccas · assist Vasco Moreira
    ALV
  18. 83'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Vivaldo · assist Samy Jr Merheg
    ALV
  19. 85'
    Card · Yellow Card
    Emerson Pedro Vanga
    EST
  20. 88'
    Subst · Substitution 4
    Leandro Antonetti · assist Sydney van Hooijdonk
    EST
  21. 90'
    Subst · Substitution 5
    Rafa Soares · assist Lucas Mincarelli
    EST
LIVE STATS H vs A
ATTACK
1.8
xG
1.3
14.0
TOTAL SHOTS
10.0
4.0
ON TARGET
7.0
9.0
OFF TARGET
3.0
1.0
BLOCKED
0.0
POSSESSION
46.0%
POSSESSION %
54.0%
331.0
PASSES
397.0
81.0%
PASS ACCURACY
84.0%
SET PIECES
2.0
CORNERS
0.0
2.0
OFFSIDES
1.0
DISCIPLINE
10.0
FOULS
12.0
2.0
YELLOW CARDS
4.0
1.0
RED CARDS
0.0
5.0
GK SAVES
2.0
🎯 SHOT BREAKDOWN

Top shooters · accuracy = on-target / total

player-level shot accuracy · per-shot xG bubbles require xG Advanced tier
ALVERCA 2 shots
Ian Luccas
1/1
Figueiredo
0/1
ESTRELA 8 shots
Leandro Antonetti
3/5
Abraham Marcus
2/2
Bénito
0/1
📈 xG RACE

Cumulative xG over 90 minutes REAL xG

final xG: 1.75 – 1.29
1.4 1.1 0.7 0.4 1.8 0.0 HT 58' 62' 51' 69' H 1.75 A 1.29 KO 30' 60' 37'

Step chart anchored to real goal minutes · final xG from SportMonks · baseline distributes remaining shots evenly across the match

⚡ ATTACK SHARE

Event activity ratio · attacks/cards/subs

zone-based attack maps require broadcast partner (Q3)
H 48%
52% A
10
EVENTS LOGGED
11
EVENTS LOGGED
LINEUPS 3-4-2-1 vs 4-2-3-1
3-4-2-1
4-2-3-1
31
MATHEUS M
33
BASTIEN M
 7.2
4
YAYA BOJA
14
STEVEN BA
 7.6
12
ISAAC JAM
 7.3
25
IAN LUCCA
6
DAVY GUI
2
NABIL TOU
 7.2
22
FIGUEIRED
10
CHIQUINHO
9
VIVALDO
 6.9
24
LéO LINCK
55
RAFA SOAR
5
STEFAN LE
30
LUAN PATR
17
JEFFERSON
 7.0
39
EDDY DOUé
8
ROBINHO
10
IANIS STO
14
LOVRO ZVO
 8.2
99
ABRAHAM M
 7.0
37
LEANDRO A
SUBSTITUTES · ALVERCA
19
Marco Essimi
F
30
Abderrahmane...
M
11
Cédric Nuozz...
F
17
Samy Jr Merh...
F
18
Zakaria Kass...
M
55
Francisco Ch...
D
35
Rayan Lucas
M
8
Vasco Moreir...
M
15
Ikker dos Sa...
D
20
Diogo Spence...
D
91
Jhonatan
G
27
Toni Tamarit
F
COACH: Sergio Ferreira
SUBSTITUTES · ESTRELA
93
Bénito
M
71
Emerson Pedr...
M
80
Alisson Souz...
F
78
Santiago Ser...
M
28
Tom Moustier
M
4
Bernardo Sch...
D
21
Max Scholze
D
3
Lucas Mincar...
D
79
Atanas Chern...
D
22
David Grilo
G
51
Diogo Pinto
G
9
Sydney van H...
F
COACH: Pepa
🏥 UNAVAILABLE PLAYERS
ALV · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

EST · 0 OUT

No injuries reported · federation feed activates Q3

⚖ MATCH OFFICIALS
REFEREE
Jose Bessa, Portugal
—
ALV MANAGER
Sergio Ferreira
head coach
EST MANAGER
Pepa
head coach
HEAD TO HEAD · ALL-TIME
0
ALV WINS
3
DRAWS
0
EST WINS
100%
3 – 3
TOTAL GOALS · 3 MEETINGS
2.00
AVG GOALS / MATCH
RECENT MEETINGS SHOWING 2 / 4
31 Jan 2026
Alverca
1 – 1
Estrela
D
25 Aug 2025
Estrela
2 – 2
Alverca
D
ALVERCA LAST 5 OVERALL
L L D L W
ESTRELA LAST 5 OVERALL
D D D L L
LIVE IMPACT Currently 0–0 · scenario projection
ALVERCA #11
If loss holds: 39 pts
ESTRELA #15
If loss holds: 30 pts
LEAGUE CONTEXT FULL TABLE →
# TEAM P W D L GD PTS FORM
1 FC Porto 34 28 4 2 +48 88
W L W W W
2 Sporting CP 34 25 7 2 +65 82
W W W D D
3 Benfica 34 23 11 0 +49 80
W D D W W
4 SC Braga 34 16 11 7 +28 59
D D D L W
5 Famalicao 34 15 11 8 +13 56
W D D W D
6 GIL Vicente 34 13 11 10 +9 50
L L D W L
7 Moreirense 34 12 7 15 -12 43
D L W L W
8 Arouca 34 12 6 16 -17 42
W W D L W
9 Guimaraes 34 12 6 16 -12 42
L L L W W
10 Estoril 34 10 9 15 -3 39
L D D L L
11 Alverca 34 10 9 15 -17 39
L D L W L
12 Rio Ave 34 8 12 14 -22 36
D L D L D
13 Santa Clara 34 9 9 16 -9 36
L W D W D
14 Nacional 34 9 7 18 -8 34
W L L W W
15 Estrela 34 6 12 16 -18 30
D D L L L
16 Casa Pia 34 6 12 16 -26 30
D W L L L
17 Tondela 34 6 10 18 -28 28
L W W D L
18 AVS 34 3 12 19 -40 21
D W W D D
UCL Qualification Europa / Conference Relegation
LIVE COMMENTARY LIVE
  • 90'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Rafa Soares
  • 88'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Leandro Antonetti
  • 85'
    Card · Yellow Card · Emerson Pedro Vanga
  • 83'
    Subst · Substitution 5 · Vivaldo
  • 83'
    Subst · Substitution 4 · Ian Luccas
  • 83'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Bastien Meupiyou
  • 75'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Isaac James
  • 74'
    Card · Red Card · Chiquinho
  • 69'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Abraham Marcus
  • 64'
    Subst · Substitution 3 · Ianis Stoica
  • 64'
    Subst · Substitution 2 · Jefferson Encada
  • 64'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Robinho
  • 62'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Vivaldo
  • 59'
    Subst · Substitution 1 · Davy Gui
  • 58'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Ian Luccas
  • 51'
    Goal · Normal Goal · Leandro Antonetti
  • HALF TIME · 0 – 0
  • 44'
    Card · Yellow Card · Vivaldo
  • 43'
    Card · Yellow Card · Eddy Doué
  • 35'
    Card · Yellow Card · Stefan Leković
  • 17'
    Card · Yellow Card · Luan Patrick
  • 14'
    Card · Yellow Card · Davy Gui
13 BOOKIES
📊 AVERAGE ACROSS 13 BOOKMAKERS
ALVERCA WIN
2.18
45.9% implied
↑ best 2.25
DRAW
3.17
31.5% implied
↑ best 3.30
ESTRELA WIN
3.45
29% implied
↑ best 3.77

Market favors Alverca. AI projects DRAW 42%.

MATCH WINNER ODDS avg across bookmakers
AI SAYS DRAW 42% · EDGE column shows AI probability minus market implied probability
BOOKMAKER 1 X 2 EDGE
10Bet 2.20 3.25 3.30 +11.2%
1xBet 2.22 3.24 3.66 +11.1%
888Sport 2.15 3.00 3.50 +8.7%
Bet365 2.20 3.25 3.50 +11.2%
Betano 2.25 3.25 3.40 +11.2%
Betfair 2.15 3.20 3.50 +10.8%
BetVictor 2.10 3.20 3.30 +10.8%
Dafabet 2.24 3.30 3.45 +11.7%
Marathonbet 2.15 3.12 3.48 +9.9%
Pinnacle 2.21 3.17 3.77 +10.5%
SBO 2.18 3.09 3.26 +9.6%
Unibet 2.16 3.20 3.35 +10.8%
William Hill 2.15 3.00 3.40 +8.7%

Best odds in gold. Edge ≥ +5% (lime) means market under-prices the AI's probability. 18+ only.

📊 OTHER MARKETS

Over/Under · BTTS · Asian Handicap

avg across bookmakers
⚽ GOALS · OVER / UNDER
1.5 O 1.36 U 2.98
2.5 O 2.16 U 1.68
3.5 O 3.87 U 1.23
⚽ BOTH TEAMS SCORE
YES
1.85 10 bks
NO
1.86 10 bks
⚖ ASIAN HANDICAP
Away -0.25 1.96
Away -0.5 1.68
Away -0.75 1.48
Away -1 1.29
Away -1.25 1.23
Away -1.5 1.18
📈 MARKET MOVEMENT

How the market shifted before kick-off

historical line movement
7d ago 3d 1d KICK-OFF

Smoothed line illustration · per-snapshot historical odds storage activates Q3.