GOALSENSE
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La Liga · REGULAR SEASON - 32 · SAT 25 APR · 12:00 LOCAL
← Match Page
ALAVES
FT
2 – 1
FULL TIME
MALLORCA
⚽ 56' Toni Martínez ⚽ 69' Toni Martínez
GOALS
⚽ 18' Jan Virgili
CLAUDE AI · BLENDED FROM 4 MODELS
FINAL · VERIFIED
CONF 32/100 LOW
🔮 PREDICTED FULL-TIME SCORE
ALA
1 – 1
MAL
most likely scoreline · 14.2% probability
AI PICKS ALAVES TO WIN 42%
FT 2 – 1
→
🤖 AI PROJECTED FT 1 – 1
🤖 AI BREAKDOWN

HOW AI SEES THE MATCH

FINAL · VERIFIED
ALA WIN 42%
DRAW 28%
MAL WIN 30%
h + d + a = 100% · stacked share
💰 AI BETTING TIP
DOUBLE CHANCE — 1X

Tight 1X2 — single-side too risky. Double chance covers 70% of outcomes with smaller payout.

CONF 70% avoid: 1X2 single 4 models
🤖 AI ANALYSIS

Minimal data available; treat as weak baseline. Both teams mid-to-lower table with similar goal profiles.

🤖 AI REASONING why AI picked this
WHY ALAVES FAVORED
42%
Alaves position 18 (33 pts) vs Mallorca 15 (35 pts) — negligible quality gap
CONTEXT
Goal differential nearly identical (Alaves -12, Mallorca -9) — defensive fragility mutual
CONTEXT
No recent form, injury, or H2H context — prediction lacks foundation
CONTEXT
WHY MALLORCA CHALLENGED
30%
Alaves position 18 (33 pts) vs Mallorca 15 (35 pts) — negligible quality gap
CONTEXT
Goal differential nearly identical (Alaves -12, Mallorca -9) — defensive fragility mutual
CONTEXT
No recent form, injury, or H2H context — prediction lacks foundation
CONTEXT
🤖 CONTEXT · NEUTRAL FACTORS
  • Alaves position 18 (33 pts) vs Mallorca 15 (35 pts) — negligible quality gap
  • Goal differential nearly identical (Alaves -12, Mallorca -9) — defensive fragility mutual
  • No recent form, injury, or H2H context — prediction lacks foundation
🤖 AI LIVE TIMELINE

PROBABILITY TIMELINE

How AI re-projects after each event
H DRAW A
100% 50% 0% KO 15' 30' HT 60' 75' FT ⚽ 18' JAN VIRGIL ⚽ 56' TONI MART� ⚽ 69' TONI MART�
Probabilities re-blended at each event · 3 events marked → Derived from goal events + remaining time
🤖 AI SCORE MATRIX

SCORELINE PROBABILITY

All possible scorelines · Poisson from xG
0% 14.2%+
0
1
2
3
4
5
6+
0
13.5
12.9
6.1
1.9
0.5
0.1
·
1
14.2
13.5
6.4
2.0
0.5
0.1
·
2
7.5
7.1
3.4
1.1
0.3
·
·
3
2.6
2.5
1.2
0.4
0.1
·
·
4
0.7
0.7
0.3
0.1
·
·
·
5
0.1
0.1
0.1
·
·
·
·
6+
·
·
·
·
·
·
·
MOST LIKELY · TOP 5
1 — 0 14.2%
0 — 0 13.5%
1 — 1 13.5%
0 — 1 12.9%
2 — 0 7.5%
Top 5 = 61.6% · rest 38.4%
🤖 AI VALUE FINDER

VALUE BETS

Where AI sees an edge vs bookmaker odds
8 markets · pre-match avg odds
MARKETODDSAI PROBFAIREDGE
AWAY to Win
13 bookmakers · pre-match avg
3.73
30.0%
3.33
+11.8%
Draw or AWAY (X2)
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.72
58.0%
1.72
+0.0%
—
Both Teams Score — YES
10 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.76
56.0%
1.79
-1.2%
—
Over 2.5 Goals
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.99
48.0%
2.08
-4.7%
—
HOME or AWAY (12)
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.32
72.0%
1.39
-5.2%
—
Draw
13 bookmakers · pre-match avg
3.26
28.0%
3.57
-8.7%
—
HOME or Draw (1X)
11 bookmakers · pre-match avg
1.27
70.0%
1.43
-10.9%
—
HOME to Win
13 bookmakers · pre-match avg
2.08
42.0%
2.38
-12.5%
—
⚠ 18+ only. Odds change frequently. AI predictions are not guarantees. Bet responsibly.